000
FXUS61 KOKX 011525
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1125 AM EDT Mon May 1 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracks north of the area today then meanders over
the Great Lakes before slowing moving over the northeast through
the middle of the week. An upper level low then lingers over the
area through the end of the week. High pressure begins to build in
over the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Gusty westerly flow and deep vertical mixing will help
temperatures climb into the upper 50s to lower 60s this
afternoon. Temperatures and cloud coverage adjusted slightly to
better match observed trends.
However, there will be mid level forcing this afternoon from
positive vorticity advection and along with steep lapse rates
there will be isolated to scattered showers, especially western
areas of the forecast region.
There could be an isolated thunderstorm to the north and west
but not included in the forecast at this time due to low
confidence and incoherent surface CAPE forecasts amongst
different models across the area.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Some stronger forcing comes thru tngt. This could trigger some
more shwrs despite the relatively less favorable nighttime
period due to the strength of the energy associated with the
approaching upr low. Lapse rates aloft should still be steep as
well. Additional shwrs can be expected on Tue as the h5 low
spins over upstate NY. NBM pops are categorical for much of the
area. Due to the good model agreement, followed the NBM pops.
There is again a few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE on Tue so isold-sct
tstms cannot be ruled out. Decreasing chances for pcpn Tue ngt
with the loss of daytime heating.
Temps will be blw climo thru the period. The NBM with some local
adjustments was used.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Little change is expected with the upper low on Wednesday as it
is progged to meander over the northeast. Showers and potentially
low topped convection should develop in the afternoon with
steepening lapse rates with the cold pool aloft. Any enhanced
convection could produce some thunder and perhaps some small
hail. Subsequent forecasts may need to add a chance of thunder
if probabilities increase. Highs again will only be in the 50s.
The upper low moves off the New England coast on Thursday, but upper
level troughing and low heights remain into the end of the week.
While probabilities are lower, a few showers remain possible,
especially in the afternoon each day. Temperatures may be slightly
higher to end the week, but still below normal in the upper 50s to
near 60 degrees.
High pressure then attempts to build in from the west over the
weekend as ridging builds over the Midwest. This should result in
drier conditions, and a warming trend. NBM temperatures on Sunday
have the region reaching 65-70 for highs.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A broad area of low pressure remains over the region today into
tonight.
VFR. Scattered showers possible this afternoon and into tonight with
no impacts to flight categories. An isolated tstm inland this
afternoon cannot be ruled out, but probability of occurrence is too
low to include in TAFs. Showers become more numerous Tuesday morning.
W-WSW winds back SW this morning with gusts generally 25 to 30kt,
occasional gusts 30-35kt are possible mid to late afternoon. Winds
diminish late aftn/early evening with gusts ending by midnight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional peak gusts up 35kt possible through this afternoon.
Shift to SW and end time of frequent gusts may be off by 1-2 hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Showers likely mainly in the morning with a
chance of MVFR. SW gusts 20-25 kt.
Wednesday - Thursday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and MVFR at
times.
Friday: VFR in the morning. Chance of afternoon showers with MVFR
possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Increasing W winds this mrng with sca cond today on all waters
as low pres exits. Winds decrease this eve, but seas on the
ocean remain aoa 5 ft thru Tue. The sca was extended thru the
day on Tue on the ocean, and may need to be extended thru Tue
ngt. Seas subside on Wednesday with conditions on all waters
remaining below SCA levels thru the end of the week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
Residual minor flooding can be expected to continue through this
afternoon. Otherwise, no additional hydrologic impacts are
expected through next weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JM
AVIATION...MET