000
FXUS61 KOKX 021412
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1012 AM EDT Tue May 2 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure lingers over the Northeast through Wednesday
before slowly moving offshore Thursday into Friday. High
pressure gradually builds in this weekend and into the beginning
of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Large upper low will continue meandering over the northeast
through the middle of the week. Several pieces of energy and
associated shortwaves will pass across the area this morning. A
surface trough will also be in the vicinity.
Showers mostly across Southern CT and Eastern Long Island
traverse east of the area late this morning. There will be some
embedded isolated to scattered thunderstorms from time to time.
POPs for showers increased and thunderstorms added to forecast
with otherwise no other significant changes made.
The probabilities of showers decrease from west to east as the
vort energy/shortwaves move north and east late this morning
into start of the afternoon. Rainfall amounts will be light and
generally a tenth of an inch or less.
For the afternoon, the upper low and associated cold pocket
aloft bring steep low level lapse rates and some relatively
shallow instability. There looks to be less organized forcing
in the afternoon, so showers should be scattered. Have
left out mention of thunder based on the shallow instability
and limited surface heating due to abundant cloud cover. It
would not be surprising if a few showers contain small hail
given the low freezing levels.
Highs will be several degrees below normal in the middle 50s.
Any showers late this afternoon will quickly diminish with loss
of the limited surface heating. This will lead to a dry, but
mostly cloudy night. With the upper low nearly overhead,
temperatures will fall into the 40s-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The upper low will be centered over the area on Wednesday.
Models have come into good agreement that the low shifts
off the coast on Thursday. Similar conditions are expected on
Wednesday with abundant cloud cover and showers developing
during the daytime. Forecast soundings show some shallow
instability and steep lapse rates as well. A rumble of thunder
cannot be ruled out and a few of the more organized showers
could contain small hail. Highs on Wednesday continue below
normal in the lower to middle 50s.
A few showers could linger into Wednesday night. While the upper
low should be offshore on Thursday, lingering troughing and low
heights remain aloft. This should continue to support mostly
cloudy and cool conditions with below normal temperatures in the
50s. Scattered showers are also possible, but have capped PoPs
below the NBM at chance with the best PVA looks to end up
southeast closer to the closed low.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A ridge of surface high pressure gradually builds over the
area during the long term period beginning on Friday and
becomes more established over the area by the weekend. The
longwave trough slowly pulls eastward during the day on Friday
as a large midlevel ridge amplifies over the center of the
country over the weekend. This midlevel ridge moves into the
area through the beginning of next week.
This pattern largely results in dry conditions through the
extended period. The exception to this would be Friday as
pieces of energy revolving on the backside of the departing
trough may continue to allow showers to develop for parts of the
area, though these should remain fairly scattered, dissipating
overnight Friday.
As surface high pressure builds becomes more established over
the weekend, a gradual warming trend is expected. Highs on
Friday are expected to be below average, generally in the upper
50s to near 60. By Saturday, highs are expected to warm into the
middle to upper 60s with 70s expected by Sunday. The warming
trend looks to continue into early next week with highs in the
middle to upper 70s for most on Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Broad area of low pressure remains over the region the TAF
period. Mainly VFR through today, with isolated pockets of MVFR
this morning.
A batch of showers is moving through the region as of 14z, with
the steadiest pushing into southern Connecticut. Conditions try
and dry out for a few hours late this morning and into the
afternoon before additional scattered showers develops. Brief
MVFR conditions are possible. Coverage will be more spotty
compared to this morning, so maintained a VCSH through the
afternoon given the uncertainty. Showers should come to an end
this evening. MVFR ceilings become more likely after 6Z
Wednesday.
Winds mainly S/SW this morning around 10 kt or less increase and
become primarily SW/W late this morning. Gusts 20 - 25 kt
become likely late morning into the afternoon before diminishing
toward evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments may be needed for shower activity and pockets of MVFR
through the day. Uncertain as to the extent of shower coverage
throughout the day.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday - Thursday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers with MVFR
conditions at times.
Friday: VFR in the morning. Chance of afternoon showers with MVFR
possible.
Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SCA remains on ocean through this evening. Then overnight, SCA
for Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet ocean zone ends at 2AM
Wednesday, with otherwise SCA continuing for the rest of the
ocean zones. Then middle ocean zone SCA from Fire Island Inlet
to Moriches ends at 6AM Wednesday and farther east, Moriches to
Montauk Point ocean zone SCA goes until 11AM Wednesday.
Winds on the waters will remain mostly below SCA levels through
Thursday. Gusts will largely be around 15-20 kt this afternoon
and evening. Winds should be weaker tonight into Wednesday
before gusts could reach 20 kt again on Thursday. Ocean seas
will remain elevated due to lingering swells through Tuesday
night. Seas may also remain around 5 ft on the ocean east of
Moriches Inlet into Wednesday morning. Seas are then expected to
subside to 3 to 4 ft later Wednesday into Thursday. There may
be building seas close to 5 ft east of Moriches Inlet late
Thursday.
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters Friday night through
the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Residual minor flooding along the Passaic River at Little Falls
is forecast to continue into the middle of the week. Otherwise,
no additional hydrologic impacts are expected through the
upcoming weekend.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides are increasing this week with the approach of
a full moon on Friday. The most vulnerable locations along the
south shore back bays, lower NY Harbor, and Western Long Island
Sound could see minor flooding benchmarks touched or exceeded
with Thursday evenings high tide.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ353.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/MW
NEAR TERM...JM/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...DR/MW
MARINE...DS/MW/JM
HYDROLOGY...DS/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...