000
FXUS61 KOKX 021759
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
159 PM EDT Tue May 2 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure will remain in the Northeast area through Wednesday
before shifting east of the area Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. The low will continue moving offshore Thursday into
Friday. High pressure gradually builds in this weekend and into
the beginning of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Higher positive vorticity advection in the midlevels will be
shifting northeast of the region from this afternoon into early this
evening. This will be associated with a shortwave exiting the area.
For tonight, the local region will be in between shortwaves with
models indicating negative vorticity advection in the mid levels.
At the surface, one wave of low pressure will be moving north and
east of the region this afternoon into tonight. This wave of low
pressure will weaken with its center increasing a little in pressure
tonight.
With some surface instability, low freezing levels between 3 and 4
kft AGL, and some of the CAPE extending to -10 degree C and slightly
above, there will be a slight chance of thunderstorms and the
possibility of small hail as well. Would expect small hail to be pea
size hail mostly.
The instability lowers going into tonight and so does the vertical
forcing for the showers. So, the POPs will decrease late this
afternoon into tonight from south to north. Mainly dry conditions
are anticipated for tonight. Clouds are also forecast to decrease as
well this evening before increasing again overnight in advance of
the next wave of low pressure.
Models appear to be slower with the next wave of low pressure
and its associated shower activity. POPs increase especially north
and west of NYC towards daybreak Wednesday.
The forecast lows tonight were a blend of MET, MAV, and NBM, ranging
from the upper 30s to upper 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The upper low will be centered over the area on Wednesday.
Models have come into good agreement that the low shifts
off the coast on Thursday. Similar conditions are expected on
Wednesday with abundant cloud cover and showers developing
during the daytime. Forecast soundings show some shallow
instability and steep lapse rates as well. A rumble of thunder
cannot be ruled out and a few of the more organized showers
could contain small hail. Highs on Wednesday continue below
normal in the lower to middle 50s.
A few showers could linger into Wednesday night. While the upper
low should be offshore on Thursday, lingering troughing and low
heights remain aloft. This should continue to support mostly
cloudy and cool conditions with below normal temperatures in the
50s. Scattered showers are also possible, but have capped PoPs
below the NBM at chance with the best PVA looks to end up
southeast closer to the closed low.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A ridge of surface high pressure gradually builds over the
area during the long term period beginning on Friday and
becomes more established over the area by the weekend. The
longwave trough slowly pulls eastward during the day on Friday
as a large midlevel ridge amplifies over the center of the
country over the weekend. This midlevel ridge moves into the
area through the beginning of next week.
This pattern largely results in dry conditions through the
extended period. The exception to this would be Friday as
pieces of energy revolving on the backside of the departing
trough may continue to allow showers to develop for parts of the
area, though these should remain fairly scattered, dissipating
overnight Friday.
As surface high pressure builds becomes more established over
the weekend, a gradual warming trend is expected. Highs on
Friday are expected to be below average, generally in the upper
50s to near 60. By Saturday, highs are expected to warm into the
middle to upper 60s with 70s expected by Sunday. The warming
trend looks to continue into early next week with highs in the
middle to upper 70s for most on Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Broad area of low pressure remains over the region the TAF
period. Mainly VFR through today, with isolated pockets of MVFR.
The steadier rain has pushed north and east of the terminals as
of 1730z, but additional scattered shower activity persists
into this evening. Brief MVFR conditions are possible. Coverage
will be more spotty compared to this morning, so maintained a
VCSH through the afternoon given the uncertainty. Showers
diminish this evening, before returning during the day
Wednesday. MVFR ceilings are possible Wed AM for a period, but
confidence not high to prevail at this time, noted with a lower
SCT deck after 8-10z Wed. Cigs improve by late morning, with VFR
conds expected thereafter.
Winds mainly WSW today 10-15 kt with a few gusts 20-25 kt,
before diminishing under 10 kt after 00z this evening. Light
W/SW flow generally under 10 kt on Wednesday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments may be needed for shower activity and pockets of MVFR
through the day. Uncertain as to the extent of shower coverage
throughout the day.
MVFR cigs possible for a period Wednesday morning.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday PM - Thursday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers with
MVFR conditions at times.
Friday: VFR. Light winds.
Saturday - Sunday: VFR. W/NW flow under 10 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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SCA remains on ocean through this evening. Then overnight, SCA
for Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet ocean zone ends at 2AM
Wednesday, with otherwise SCA continuing for the rest of the
ocean zones. Then middle ocean zone SCA from Fire Island Inlet
to Moriches ends at 6AM Wednesday and farther east, Moriches to
Montauk Point ocean zone SCA goes until 11AM Wednesday.
Winds on the waters will remain mostly below SCA levels
tonight through Thursday. Gusts will largely be around 15-20 kt
this afternoon and evening with some 25 kt gusts on the ocean
and occasionally on the NY Harbor. Winds should be weaker
tonight into Wednesday before gusts could reach 20 kt again on
Thursday. Ocean seas will remain elevated due to lingering
swells through Tuesday night. Seas may also remain around 5 ft
on the ocean east of Moriches Inlet into Wednesday morning. Seas
are then expected to subside to 3 to 4 ft later Wednesday into
Thursday. There may be building seas close to 5 ft east of
Moriches Inlet late Thursday.
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters Friday night through
the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
Additional shower activity through tonight will amount to less
than a quarter of an inch of rainfall.
Residual minor flooding along the Passaic River at Little Falls
is forecast to continue into the middle of the week. Otherwise,
no additional hydrologic impacts are expected through the
upcoming weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides are increasing this week with the approach of
a full moon on Friday. The most vulnerable locations along the
south shore back bays, lower NY Harbor, and Western Long Island
Sound could see minor flooding benchmarks touched or exceeded
with Thursday evenings high tide.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ353.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/MW
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JM/DS/MW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DS/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...