000
FXUS61 KOKX 022346
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
746 PM EDT Tue May 2 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will remain in the Northeast area through Wednesday
before shifting east of the area Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. High pressure starts to build in behind the departing
low on Thursday. High pressure then remains largely in control
through the weekend, with low pressure passing to our north and
east early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast is on track. Lowered PoPs to slight chance as just
a few isolated showers are around the area currently. This
activity will continue to diminish this evening.
Higher positive vorticity advection in the mid levels will be
shifting northeast of the region into early this evening. This
will be associated with a shortwave exiting the area. For
tonight, the local region will be in between shortwaves with
models indicating negative vorticity advection in the mid
levels.
At the surface, one wave of low pressure will be moving north and
east of the region into tonight. This wave of low pressure will
weaken with its center increasing a little in pressure tonight.
The instability lowers going into tonight and so does the vertical
forcing for the showers. So, the POPs will decrease into
tonight from south to north. Mainly dry conditions are anticipated
for tonight. Clouds are also forecast to decrease as well this
evening before increasing again overnight in advance of the next
wave of low pressure.
Models appear to be slower with the next wave of low pressure
and its associated shower activity. POPs increase especially north
and west of NYC towards daybreak Wednesday.
The forecast lows tonight were a blend of MET, MAV, and NBM,
ranging from the upper 30s to upper 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The low approaching from the west appears to merge with the low
north of the area Wednesday. The intensity of the low remains weak
but with some upper level support with higher mid level vorticity
moving into the region during the day, rain shower chances will
increase. The center of the upper level low will be getting
closer to the local region. Rain showers become likely for more
western parts of the region, including NE NJ, NYC, Lower Hudson
Valley and interior SW Connecticut. For NE NJ, Lower Hudson
Valley and interior SW Connecticut also put in slight chance of
thunderstorms with potential for small hail due to cold pool
aloft and these locations having more forecast surface based
CAPE.
The MAV and MET guidance combination was used for the high
temperature forecast, ranging from the mid to upper 50s much of the
area but lower 50s across parts of the Lower Hudson Valley and
interior SW Connecticut.
The upper level low center moves just south of the area Wednesday
night. At the surface, the low nearest to the area dissipates
with another low situated well offshore. Leftover instability
showers may remain across part of the region for Wednesday
evening. Some rain showers from the more offshore low may
approach eastern sections of the region late Wednesday night. A
chance of rain showers remains for the whole area Wednesday
night.
The forecast lows Wednesday night utilized a combination of
consensus of MOS, consensus of raw model data and the NBM,
ranging mainly in the low to mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
By Thursday morning, the upper level low and associated surface low
will be offshore and departing to our east. High pressure centered
in eastern Canada starts to nose into our area, while troughing
lingers in the upper levels. A few shortwaves rotate through the
area behind the departing upper low on Thursday and Friday and two
more days of isolated to scattered showers are expected before we
dry out over the weekend.
A very gradual warming trend is expected through Tuesday. We return
to normal highs on Saturday and then slightly above normal on
Sunday. Both days this weekend will also feature plenty of sun.
With upper level ridge axis remaining to our west, early next week
an upper level low looks to drop down from eastern Canada, along
with an associated surface low. This will bring the next chance of
rain, with just slight chance PoPs in the forecast for now.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Broad area of low pressure remains over the area through the TAF
period.
Shower activity has diminished this evening. Expect mainly VFR
conditions for tonight, with perhaps pockets of MVFR beginning to
return along with some scattered -SHRA towards the morning push.
Shower activity increases in coverage later in the morning for
western most terminals, and during Wed. afternoon for city
terminals and further east. Most of the time VFR conditions are
expected, with pockets of MVFR at times with shower activity,
especially for northern and western terminals on Wed.
Winds tonight mostly WSW and settling under 10 kt, with most
terminals closer to 5 kt. The winds will have more of a true SW
component during the day Wed, with eastern coastal terminals
having more of a S component. Wind speeds will be close to 10 kt on
Wed.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments may be needed towards the Wed AM push and into the day
with shower activity and pockets of MVFR ceilings at times.
Uncertainty remains as to the extent of shower coverage throughout
the day.
OUTLOOK FOR 0Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday night: Pockets of MVFR possible with chance of -SHRA,
otherwise VFR most of the time.
Thursday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers with MVFR
conditions at times.
Friday: VFR. Light winds.
Saturday and Sunday: VFR. W/NW flow under 10 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA remains on ocean through this evening. Then overnight, SCA
for Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet ocean zone ends at 2AM
Wednesday, with otherwise SCA continuing for the rest of the
ocean zones. Then middle ocean zone SCA from Fire Island Inlet
to Moriches ends at 6AM Wednesday and farther east, Moriches to
Montauk Point ocean zone SCA goes until 11AM Wednesday.
Otherwise, sub-SCA conditions forecast rest of the short term
and for all non-ocean waters in the short term through Wednesday
night.
A tightening pressure gradient as low pressure pulls away will
result in marginal SCA conditions across the eastern ocean zone and
possibly the eastern Sound zone early on Thursday. Any 25 kt gusts
should only last through Thursday morning, with 5 ft seas possibly
lingering into Thursday night. Quiet conditions are then expected
through the rest of the forecast has high pressure remains largely
in control.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Additional shower activity through Wednesday night will amount to
near a quarter of an inch of rainfall or less.
Residual minor flooding along the Passaic River at Little Falls
is forecast to continue into the middle of the week. Otherwise,
no additional hydrologic impacts are expected through early next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides are increasing this week with the approach of
a full moon on Friday. The most vulnerable locations along the
south shore back bays, lower NY Harbor, and Western Long Island
Sound could see minor flooding benchmarks touched or exceeded
with Thursday evenings high tide.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ353.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/JT
NEAR TERM...JM/JT
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JM/JT
HYDROLOGY...JM/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...