000
FXUS61 KOKX 041422
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1022 AM EDT Thu May 4 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure meanders offshore today and pushes further east into
Friday as high pressure builds in for the weekend. High pressure
will then remain in control into early next week before a
potential frontal system impacts the area late Tuesday into
Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A pocket of rain showers continues to drift southwest through
parts of the NYC metro and Nassau Co at 14z. The bulk of this
has already moved offshore, and should start to see a lull in
the wet weather in these areas into early afternoon. Additional
shower activity develops as the day progresses, with highest
chances over western portions of the area, the urban metro and
points north and west, though a stray shower is possible
anywhere. Additional rainfall through this evening largely
remains under a tenth of an inch.
The area remains under a mid-level trough with a large but
weakening area of low pressure shifting offshore through the
day. Additional moisture over the area aided by some mid-level
energy and some surface heating will likely result in scattered
showers once again for much of the area today. Highs today will
be below average, generally in the middle to upper 50s.
Any showers in the area toward evening should dissipate before
midnight with dry conditions expected tonight and into early
Friday morning. Lows tonight will be in the low to middle 40s
for most with NYC only dropping into the upper 40s. Some
interior locations may drop into the upper 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The low pressure gets further offshore Friday as the area
becomes less entrenched in a mid-level trough. Despite surface
high pressure building into the area during the day, some
additional showers will remain possible with a relative cold
pool aloft and another piece of weak energy moving through
during the day. Any isolated showers come to an end by evening
with high pressure continuing to build into the area into the
weekend.
Dry conditions are expected Friday night through Saturday night
with gradually clearing skies. Highs on Friday will be in the
middle to upper 50s. Clearing skies on Saturday will result in
high temperatures rebounding to near normal for early may with
temperatures in the middle to upper 60s. Lows each night will
generally be in the 40s with the cooler spots further inland and
warmer spots along the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
No significant changes were made in the extended Sunday through the
middle of next week.
Global models continue to be in good agreement in taking an upper
trough/closed low over the Davis Strait back south across the
Canadian Maritimes late in the weekend into early next week.
Height falls over the northeast associated with this system may be
able to carve out a shortwave Tuesday into Wednesday. The models
hint at a weak wave of low pressure passing near or just south of
the area during this period. However, run-to-run continuity
regarding the amplitude of the shortwave is low at this time.
Potential showers with this system will ultimately be determined
by the track of the frontal wave and amplitude of the trough.
Followed the NBM for PoPs this period, which is a reasonable
consensus yielding slight to chance PoPs Tuesday into Wednesday.
Temperatures will continue trending warmer Sunday into early next
week, to about 5 degrees above normal. Inland locations will get
into the lower 70s by Sunday and lower to mid 70s Monday and
Tuesday. It will fall off closer to the coast, where it will be in
the 60s to near 70 with a more of a marine influence.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Broad area of low pressure slowly moves offshore through the TAF
period, with high pressure building in to the west. A surface trough
likely lingers nearby into early this evening.
MVFR ceilings are expected to prevail into the early afternoon.
VFR conditions should then return 19-21z. With showers moving south
and west of the terminals this morning, a dry period will continue
until later this afternoon when isolated to scattered showers will
be possible. Have included a VCSH for NYC terminals and Lower Hudson
Valley terminals, mainly 20z-00z. However, confidence is low in
timing and coverage. There is also a chance for MVFR ceilings to
redevelop tonight, but uncertainty exists in timing and extent.
N and NE winds around 10 kt into early this afternoon. Wind
direction becomes a bit less certain late this afternoon and
evening, but wind speeds should fall below 10 kt. Some terminals
(KJFK, KLGA, KEWR, KTEB), could see winds become SW early this
evening. Winds become light and variable overnight. N-NE winds are
then expected Friday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Improvement to VFR this afternoon may be off by 1-2 hours.
Amendments likely for wind direction as confidence is low on exact
direction late this afternoon and evening.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers during the day mainly NYC
north and west.
Saturday-Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Building seas in the outer portions of the eastern ocean zone may
result in wave heights around 5 feet this afternoon into the
first portion of tonight. SCA was issued to highlight this
marginal potential through 6z Fri.
Otherwise, sub- SCA conditions are expected for all remaining
waters.
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters Friday through early
next week with high pressure slowly building in from thew west.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides are increasing with the approach of a full moon
on Friday. Reynolds Channel and Freeport just touched minor flooding
benchmarks with Wednesday evening high tide. More locations along
the south shore back bays and coastal Fairfield county along the
Western Long Island Sound could see minor flooding benchmarks
touched or exceeded by a tenth of a foot with this evenings high
tide. A coastal flood statement has been issued for these locations.
Elsewhere, water levels should fall short of minor flooding
benchmarks. Isolated minor coastal flooding is also possible
across the south shore back bays with Friday evenings high tide.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
Friday for ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/MW
NEAR TERM...DR/DS
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...DR/DS/MW
HYDROLOGY...DS/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...