000
FXUS61 KOKX 041750
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
150 PM EDT Thu May 4 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure meanders offshore today and pushes further east into
Friday as high pressure builds in for the weekend. High pressure
will then remain in control into early next week before a
potential frontal system impacts the area late Tuesday into
Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
An area of light reflectivity returns was breaking out over
eastern CT on KOKX radar as of 1730z, and may produce a quick
sprinkle or some light rain to SE CT and far eastern Long Island
into early afternoon. Otherwise, the possibility for additional
shower development continues through the day, with highest
chances farther west over NJ, NYC, and the Lower Hudson Valley.
Additional rainfall through this evening largely remains under a
tenth of an inch.
The area remains under a mid-level trough with a large but
weakening area of low pressure shifting offshore through the
day. Additional moisture over the area aided by some mid-level
energy and some surface heating will likely result in scattered
showers once again for much of the area today. Highs today will
be below average, generally in the middle to upper 50s.
Any showers in the area toward evening should dissipate before
midnight with dry conditions expected tonight and into early
Friday morning. Lows tonight will be in the low to middle 40s
for most with NYC only dropping into the upper 40s. Some
interior locations may drop into the upper 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The low pressure gets further offshore Friday as the area
becomes less entrenched in a mid-level trough. Despite surface
high pressure building into the area during the day, some
additional showers will remain possible with a relative cold
pool aloft and another piece of weak energy moving through
during the day. Any isolated showers come to an end by evening
with high pressure continuing to build into the area into the
weekend.
Dry conditions are expected Friday night through Saturday night
with gradually clearing skies. Highs on Friday will be in the
middle to upper 50s. Clearing skies on Saturday will result in
high temperatures rebounding to near normal for early may with
temperatures in the middle to upper 60s. Lows each night will
generally be in the 40s with the cooler spots further inland and
warmer spots along the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
No significant changes were made in the extended Sunday through the
middle of next week.
Global models continue to be in good agreement in taking an upper
trough/closed low over the Davis Strait back south across the
Canadian Maritimes late in the weekend into early next week.
Height falls over the northeast associated with this system may be
able to carve out a shortwave Tuesday into Wednesday. The models
hint at a weak wave of low pressure passing near or just south of
the area during this period. However, run-to-run continuity
regarding the amplitude of the shortwave is low at this time.
Potential showers with this system will ultimately be determined
by the track of the frontal wave and amplitude of the trough.
Followed the NBM for PoPs this period, which is a reasonable
consensus yielding slight to chance PoPs Tuesday into Wednesday.
Temperatures will continue trending warmer Sunday into early next
week, to about 5 degrees above normal. Inland locations will get
into the lower 70s by Sunday and lower to mid 70s Monday and
Tuesday. It will fall off closer to the coast, where it will be in
the 60s to near 70 with a more of a marine influence.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A surface trough lingers nearby into late tonight as associated
offshore low pressure continues to track east. High pressure
builds to the west Friday morning.
MVFR ceilings continue into late afternoon, 21Z to 22Z, and
lift to VFR, with timing uncertainties. A few showers will be
possible into the evening, west of the terminals. However, a
brief shower could affect KSWF, KTEB, and KEWR. With the low
chances and areal coverage uncertainty have not included in the
forecasts at this time, and impacts to ceilings and/or
visibilities are not expected. Afternoon showers are again
possible west and north of the NYC terminals, and only included
a PROB30 at KSWF.
NE winds become light and variable at the terminals this
evening, 00Z to 02Z, and then NNE winds increase Friday morning.
Expect winds to gradually become east, and then late day sea
breezes are expected.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Improvement to VFR late afternoon may be off by 1-2 hours.
Winds may become light and variable before 01Z, with timing
uncertain.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday afternoon: VFR. Chance of a shower mainly north and
west. Late day sea breezes likely.
Saturday-Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance or afternoon showers with MVFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Building seas in the outer portions of the eastern ocean zone may
result in wave heights around 5 feet this afternoon into the
first portion of tonight. SCA was issued to highlight this
marginal potential through 6z Fri.
Otherwise, sub- SCA conditions are expected for all remaining
waters.
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters Friday through early
next week with high pressure slowly building in from thew west.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides are increasing with the approach of a full moon
on Friday. Reynolds Channel and Freeport just touched minor flooding
benchmarks with Wednesday evening high tide. More locations along
the south shore back bays and coastal Fairfield county along the
Western Long Island Sound could see minor flooding benchmarks
touched or exceeded by a tenth of a foot with this evenings high
tide. A coastal flood statement has been issued for these locations.
Elsewhere, water levels should fall short of minor flooding
benchmarks. Isolated minor coastal flooding is also possible
across the south shore back bays with Friday evenings high tide.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/DS/MW
NEAR TERM...DR/DS
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...DR/DS/MW
HYDROLOGY...DS/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...