000
FXUS61 KOKX 042331
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
731 PM EDT Thu May 4 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure meanders offshore tonight before tracking further
east on Friday. High pressure over the weekend will give way to
a passing frontal system next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Scattered light rain showers continue across the region this
evening before coverage diminishes tonight. Additional rainfall
through this evening largely remains under a tenth of an inch.
Predominantly dry conditions expected tonight, though an
isolated shower or two is certainly possible. Temperatures will
be in the low to middle 40s for most, and upper 40s in the
urban metro. Some interior locations may drop into the upper
30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure moves further offshore on Friday and heights begin to
rise over the region as the area becomes less entrenched in a trough
translating east into the North Atlantic.
Despite surface high pressure building in during the day, an
inverted trough lingers aloft, likely allowing scattered shower
development once again during the day aided by the relative cold
pool that remains, though coverage is likely less than previous
days. Any isolated showers come to an end in the evening, with
QPF largely under a tenth of an inch.
Temperatures will remain seasonably chilly for early May, as
highs top out in the upper 50s to around 60, or about 10 degrees
below normal. Lows Friday night bottom out in the 40s almost
everywhere. A consensus of bias-corrected short-term guidance
was followed for this update.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The models are in good agreement that high pres build in for the
weekend. This will allow for a warming trend to take place due to
rising heights and sunshine. Increasing thetae and some potential
weak embedded energy in nwly flow aloft may produce a few shwrs Sun
eve/ngt. Confidence is low however with the NAM and ECMWF dry.
Slight chances in the fcst per the NBM.
A sfc trof tracks swd towards the area on Mon. Although heights
remains relatively unchanged, favorable non-onshore winds ahead of
the boundary are progged to allow for warmer temps. Most places are
modeled to hit at least 70, with some mid to upr 70s across the
warmer swrn interior.
A frontal sys then approaches for Tue and Wed. There is some model
uncertainty with this feature, so the blended approach was used and
the NBM followed. Chances for shwrs therefore in the Tue and Wed
period, with dwindling slight chances on Thu. The temp fcst is
slightly cooler, although some upward adjustments possible depending
on when the rain does come in. The MEX guidance is much warmer than
the NBM for highs on Tue, likely due to a much drier modeled
aftn.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak surface trough lingers nearby into late tonight as associated
offshore low pressure continues to track east. High pressure builds
to the west Friday morning.
VFR with lingering rain showers around the area. This activity
will last through about 02z. Afternoon showers are again
possible mainly west and north of the NYC terminals Friday, and
only included a PROB30 at KSWF.
Winds become light and variable tonight. NNE winds increase
Friday morning. Expect winds to gradually become east, and then
late day sea breezes are expected.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No amendments are expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday Night: VFR. Chance of a shower mainly north and west.
Saturday-Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance of afternoon showers with MVFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Seas in the outer portions of the eastern ocean zone may flirt
with 5 feet into tonight, though are now expected to remain just
shy of advisory criteria. Cancelled the SCA given this slightly
lower guidance.
Otherwise, sub-SCA conditions are expected for all waters
tonight and Friday. High pres this weekend, along with a
generally weak pres gradient next week, will keep winds and seas
blw sca lvls Sat-Tue. There is the potential for increasing ely
winds and building seas close to sca lvls on Wed with a passing
frontal sys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through mid next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides are increasing with the approach of a full moon
on Friday. Reynolds Channel and Freeport just touched minor flooding
benchmarks with Wednesday evening high tide. More locations along
the south shore back bays and coastal Fairfield county along the
Western Long Island Sound could see minor flooding benchmarks
touched or exceeded by a tenth of a foot with this evening`s
high tide.
A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for these locations.
Elsewhere, water levels should fall short of minor flooding
benchmarks. Isolated minor coastal flooding is also possible
across the south shore back bays with Friday evenings high tide.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...12/DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...12/DR
HYDROLOGY...12/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...