000
FXUS61 KOKX 051123
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
723 AM EDT Fri May 5 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure slowly pushes further offshore today with high
pressure building in over the area. High pressure over the
weekend will give way to a passing frontal system Tuesday and
Wednesday. High pressure returns for Thursday and Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to
temperature and dew points to account for the latest
observations.
Mainly dry conditions are expected early this morning, though
some patchy fog is possible for area where skies have cleared
and winds have became calm. Low pressure continues to move
further offshore today with high pressure building in from the
northwest.
Despite the high pressure, an inverted trough over the area may
provide enough of a focus for lift to produce some additional
scattered showers with the aide of daytime heating. The primary
focus for these showers is expected to be for the Lower Hudson
Valley and down into NE NJ and the NYC metro in the afternoon
and early evening. Highs today are expected to be in the upper
50s and low 60s.
ANy shower activity comes to an end shortly after sunset with
high pressure more firmly moving in place tonight allowing for
clearing skies and drying conditions. Lows will be in the 40s
with cooler spots inland and warmer spots along the coast. Some
typically cooler spots may drop into the upper 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A fairly tranquil and springlike weekend is in store as high
pressure remains over the area and temperatures rebound to a
more seasonable feel. Skies will be clear to mostly sunny on
Saturday with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Some
immediate coastal areas (mainly eastern Long Island) may not
rise out of the low to middle 60s. Lows Saturday night will be
in the 40s for most with the NYC metro likely not falling out of
the 50s.
Dry and warmer conditions are expected Sunday as cloud cover
may increase slightly as a weak upper level disturbance
approaches from the west. Highs will be in the upper 60s to
middle 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
No significant changes in the long term, and stuck fairly close
to the NBM guidance.
A weak shortwave passing over the region Sunday night may result in
a few rain showers. Confidence of timing and location of any showers
remains lows, and will continue to run with just some slight chance
POPS per the NBM.
A surface trough tracks towards the area on Monday. Although heights
remains relatively unchanged, favorable non-onshore winds ahead of
the boundary are progged to allow for warmer temps. Most places are
modeled to hit at least 70, with some mid to upper 70s across the
warmer interior.
A frontal system then approaches for Tuesday and Wednesday. There is
some model uncertainty with this feature, so the blended approach
was used and the NBM followed. Expect chances for showers during the
Tuesday and Wednesday period. Temperature through this period should
be slightly cooler, although some upward adjustments possible
depending on when the rain does come in. Forecast highs now only in
the 60s, however it could be warmer depending on the timing of the
rainfall moving it the region.
High pressure returns to end the week. Expect dry conditions both
Thursday and Friday with a gradual warming trend into the upper 60s
and middle 70s on Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure east of the region will move further away from the
region today. Meanwhile, high pressure builds in from the west.
VFR through the TAF period. Afternoon showers are again
possible mainly north and west of the NYC terminals. Will
include a tempo group at KSWF, but confidence on timing and
placement of showers is too low to include in the other TAF
sites.
Winds will be light and variable early this morning. NNE winds
increase after sunrise. Expect winds to gradually become east, and
then late day sea breezes are expected. Winds become light and
variable once again tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible for wind direction changes. The flow is
light today which could result in fluctuations in wind
direction. Also, the timing of afternoon seabreezes may be off
by +/- 1 hour.
Can not rule out some wind speeds reaching 10kt as the winds
become more SE and S, especially at KJFK.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday-Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance of afternoon showers with MVFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient will keep winds and seas below SCA
levels through at least Tuesday. There is the potential for
increasing easterly winds and building seas close to sca levels
on Wednesday with a passing frontal system.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through mid next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides are increasing with the approach of a full
moon today. Most water levels should fall short of minor
flooding benchmarks, however, isolated minor coastal flooding
is possible across the south shore back bays during this
evening`s high tide.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/MW
HYDROLOGY...BC/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...