000
FXUS61 KOKX 051441
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1041 AM EDT Fri May 5 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure slowly pushes further offshore today with high
pressure building in over the area. High pressure over the
weekend will give way to a passing frontal system Tuesday and
Wednesday. High pressure returns for Thursday and Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Dry the remainder of this morning. The patchy fog has dissipated.
Low pressure continues to move further offshore today with high
pressure building in from the northwest.
Despite the high pressure, an inverted trough over the area may
provide enough of a focus for lift to produce some additional
scattered showers with the aide of daytime heating. The primary
focus for these showers is expected to be for the Lower Hudson
Valley and down into NE NJ and the NYC metro in the afternoon
and early evening. Updated probabilities mainly based on the
CAMS, which focus the chances across the inland areas. A few
showers will also be possible late afternoon into the evening,
focusing on the sea breeze.
Highs today are expected to be in the upper 50s and low 60s.
Any shower activity comes to an end shortly after sunset with
high pressure more firmly moving in place tonight allowing for
clearing skies and drying conditions. Lows will be in the 40s
with cooler spots inland and warmer spots along the coast. Some
typically cooler spots may drop into the upper 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A fairly tranquil and springlike weekend is in store as high
pressure remains over the area and temperatures rebound to a
more seasonable feel. Skies will be clear to mostly sunny on
Saturday with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Some
immediate coastal areas (mainly eastern Long Island) may not
rise out of the low to middle 60s. Lows Saturday night will be
in the 40s for most with the NYC metro likely not falling out of
the 50s.
Dry and warmer conditions are expected Sunday as cloud cover
may increase slightly as a weak upper level disturbance
approaches from the west. Highs will be in the upper 60s to
middle 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
No significant changes in the long term, and stuck fairly close
to the NBM guidance.
A weak shortwave passing over the region Sunday night may result in
a few rain showers. Confidence of timing and location of any showers
remains lows, and will continue to run with just some slight chance
POPS per the NBM.
A surface trough tracks towards the area on Monday. Although heights
remains relatively unchanged, favorable non-onshore winds ahead of
the boundary are progged to allow for warmer temps. Most places are
modeled to hit at least 70, with some mid to upper 70s across the
warmer interior.
A frontal system then approaches for Tuesday and Wednesday. There is
some model uncertainty with this feature, so the blended approach
was used and the NBM followed. Expect chances for showers during the
Tuesday and Wednesday period. Temperature through this period should
be slightly cooler, although some upward adjustments possible
depending on when the rain does come in. Forecast highs now only in
the 60s, however it could be warmer depending on the timing of the
rainfall moving it the region.
High pressure returns to end the week. Expect dry conditions both
Thursday and Friday with a gradual warming trend into the upper 60s
and middle 70s on Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure east of the region will move farther away from the
region today. Meanwhile, high pressure builds in from the northwest.
VFR through the TAF period. Afternoon showers are possible
mainly north and west of the NYC terminals. Will include a tempo
group at KSWF, but confidence on timing and placement of
showers is too low to include in the other TAF sites.
Light N to E winds give way to sea breezes late morning into
afternoon. Winds should remain 10 kt or less. Winds become
light and variable once again tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Sea breeze timing may be off by +/- 1-2 hours. Sea breeze might
not reach KTEB, however winds remain below 10kt regardless.
Sustained winds at KJFK could potentially be 10-15kt this
afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday-Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance of afternoon showers with MVFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
No changes to the winds and seas at this time.
A weak pressure gradient will keep winds and seas below SCA
levels through at least Tuesday. There is the potential for
increasing easterly winds and building seas close to sca levels
on Wednesday with a passing frontal system.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through mid next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides are increasing with a full moon occurring early
this afternoon. Most water levels should fall short of minor
flooding benchmarks, however, isolated minor coastal flooding is
possible across the south shore back bays during this evening`s
high tide.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MW
NEAR TERM...MET/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/MET/MW
HYDROLOGY...BC/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...