000
FXUS61 KOKX 051935
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
335 PM EDT Fri May 5 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure slowly pushes further offshore today with high
pressure building in over the area. High pressure over the
weekend will give way to a passing frontal system Tuesday and
Wednesday. High pressure returns for Thursday and Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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A weak surface and mid level trough extending back from offshore
low pressure weakens early this evening as heights begin to
slowly rise as a ridge builds to the west. Any instability
showers that remain will be dissipating with the loss of daytime
heating. Mid levels dry this evening as subsidence increase, and
cumulus dissipate with the loss of heating. Temperatures will be
near seasonal normals across the region. However, there is a
chance that temperatures across the outlying areas will be lower
than currently forecast as skies clear and winds become light to
calm allowing for increased radiational cooling.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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A mid and upper level ridge remain to the west of the region
Saturday into Saturday night as surface high pressure remains
across the area. Skies will be mostly cloud-free with some
daytime cumulus Saturday. Temperatures Saturday and Saturday
night will be near seasonal normals.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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W-NW flow in the mid and upper level will prevail to begin the
period as the region will be south of an upper level low across
Eastern Canada. Initially closer to the sfc a low pressure
trough clears the area Sunday morning. Not really expected
anything with this at all in terms of sensible wx. Weak high
pressure should be in control for much of the day to round out
the weekend on Sunday with a light synoptic pressure gradient.
Thus, look for a sea breeze, or at least a hybrid seabreeze to
develop for the afternoon. Temperatures should be a touch
warmer, especially away from the coast line. In advance of a
cold front and a spoke of upper level energy embedded in the NW
flow aloft, look for more in the way of clouds Sunday night.
Have chosen to go with a lower end shower chance, just a slight
increase in PoPs from the previous package. Once the front
pushes offshore into Monday morning look for sunshine to
develop. Monday should feature a fair amount of sunshine and
slightly warmer temps again with mainly middle 70s, with upper
60s to around 70 closer to the shore.
Clouds should increase either late in the day or into Monday
night as most of the guidance has mid level energy spilling in
from the west. The cold front that previously moved through
earlier Mon morning is expected to stall just south of the area.
Low pressure is expected to develop southwest and south of the
area along the stalled boundary. The low is expected to be
fairly disorganized, thus staying away from likely and cat PoPs
and continuing with chance PoPs Mon night through a good portion
of Tue night.
The question then comes up for Wed, as to how fast the
remainder of the disturbance lingers before it gets offshore.
The ECMWF and the CMC have been a bit faster in bringing back a
drier WNW flow regime aloft, while the GFS and ICON continue to
hedge their bets a bit with perhaps more in the way of clearing
and improving skies waiting until later in the day and evening.
For now going minimal PoPs late Tue night into Wed AM. Late Wed
and into Thursday look for deep layer ridging to strengthen west
of the area. The upper level ridge is slowly build east into
the area through the late week. It is possible that a
disturbance or two could push through in the deep layered NW
flow, but going to keep this dry for now and go on the lower end
of sky cover from the consensus guidance for the late week
period. Temperatures will more or less run near average for this
time of the year through the period.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Low pressure east of the region will move farther away from the
region today. Meanwhile, high pressure builds in from the
northwest.
VFR through the TAF period. Brief light showers, likely with
vsbys prevailing at 6sm or higher, are possible through early
evening mainly for KEWR/KTEB/KSWF/KHPN/KBDR. Have added VCSH or
-shra to the forecast for most of these.
Sea breezes have now moved through most terminals. Wind speeds
10kt or less, but slightly stronger at KJFK. Light WSW to
variable winds starting this evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Sea breeze might not reach KTEB, however winds remain below
10kt regardless.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday-Sunday: VFR.
Monday: Chance MVFR and showers in the morning, otherwise VFR.
Tuesday: Chance of showers with MVFR.
Wednesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Daytime land temperatures Saturday and Sunday will be around 70
to the lower 70s while water temperatures remain in the lower
to mid 50s. Air temperatures over the nearshore waters will
generally be in the lower 60s.
High pressure builds into the waters tonight and remains into
Sunday. At this time it appears sub small craft conditions take
shape throughout the entire forecast period. Afternoon sea
breezes, and perhaps a hint of an Ambrose jet could get a few
gusts to or just above 20 kt at times over the western most near
shore waters and out over the ocean Sunday and Monday
afternoons. Otherwise, the winds will then turn more onshore
Tuesday and Wednesday. The winds and seas should remain below
small craft conditions through mid week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic concerns exist through period.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Astronomical tides are increasing with a full moon early this
afternoon. Most water levels should fall short of minor flooding
benchmarks, however, isolated minor coastal flooding is
possible across the south shore back bays during this evening`s
high tide.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
High pressure builds into the waters tonight and remains through
S
No changes to the winds and seas at this time.
A weak pressure gradient will keep winds and seas below SCA
levels through at least Tuesday. There is the potential for
increasing easterly winds and building seas close to sca levels
on Wednesday with a passing frontal system.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JE/MET
HYDROLOGY...JE/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...