000
FXUS61 KOKX 061011
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
611 AM EDT Sat May 6 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the west through Sunday morning, then
offshore Sunday afternoon. Multiple weak frontal systems
converge upon the area Sunday night, while a wave of low
pressure passes near or just north of the area. The low will
drag a cold front through the area Monday morning. Low pressure
passes nearby to the south Tuesday. High pressure starts to
build mid week and settles across the area for the remainder of
the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Minor adjustments this update to account for latest obs and
trends.
Blocking across the North Atlantic will allow for a slow
eastward progression of an upper level ridge to the west. At the
surface, an elongated area of high pressure from central Canada
south into the Mid Atlantic will translate east through Sunday
morning. This will result in plenty of sun today with highs
around 70 away from the immediate coast. This is close to normal
if not a few degrees above for many locations. In addition, a
surface trough will develop across the area this afternoon. A
W/NW flow may back to the SW-S across western LI in the afternoon
due to possible seabreeze development.
For tonight, clear skies and light WNW winds will allow lows to
drop to near normal, ranging form the mid/upper 40s inland (as
well as the Pine Barrens region of LI), to the lower 50s across
the NYC metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure gives way to a warm front approaching from the SW
on Sunday, with a cold front dropping south from the St.
Lawrence River Valley of eastern Canada. The latter of which is
associated with an upper low dropping south from the Davis
Strait into the Canadian Maritimes. In between, an area of low
pressure aided by jet energy will race SE from the Great Lakes
Sunday night, passing near or just north of the forecast area.
Behind, it a weak cold front passes through Monday morning.
Sunday will be dry and a few degrees warmer with lows in the
lower to mid 70s, warmest across the NJ metro. With the high
passing to the east by afternoon, winds will become southerly
with coastal locations dropping in the afternoon. Coastal
locations, especially the south shore beaches of LI, will
be much cooler with high struggling to get into the lower 60s.
Chances for showers will increase in the evening and continue
through the night. However, most locations will be dry by or
shortly after daybreak Monday. Rainfall amounts at this time are
forecast to be a quarter inch or less.
A drier airmass and a NW flow on Monday will allow for an even
warmer day with highs 5 to 8 degrees above normal. Opted toward
the warmer MET/ECS guidance. Even coastal locations with the
offshore flow will likely top the 70 mark, with the mid and
upper 70s expected for a good portion of the area. As a side
note, should the airmass behind the cold front take a more
southward push versus exiting off the northern New England
coast, temps may need to be backed down a little.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
No significant changes in the long term, and stuck fairly close to
the NBM guidance.
A frontal boundary will remain stalled south of the region Monday
night through Tuesday night. An area of low pressure is expected to
travel along this boundary, passing south of the area. Latest
guidance continues to show the low rather disorganized, and the area
remains on the northern edge of the precipitation shield. Will
continue to carry chance POPs through this time frame. Some
uncertainly remains with just how quickly this system exits the
region on Wednesday. Will continue to maintain some slight chance
POPS on Wednesday, as some models are depicting some lingering
precip continuing.
Temperature through this period should be slightly cooler, although
some upward adjustments possible depending on when the rain does
come in. Forecast highs now only in the 60s, however it could be
warmer depending on the timing of the rainfall moving it the region.
High pressure returns to end the week. Expect dry conditions both
Thursday and Friday with a gradual warming trend into the upper 60s
and middle 70s on Thursday. Temperatures warm into the lower to
upper 70s across much of the area, except far eastern Long Island
and coastal CT (60s) on Friday. Saturday could see a few locations
reach 80 degrees, especially across NE NJ.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds into the area through the TAF period.
VFR conditions. Winds start off fairly light and will become more
northwesterly and increase to around 10kt or less later this
morning. The winds will become more southerly at KJFK, KLGA, KISP
and the CT terminals as afternoon sea breeze develop. Winds become
light and variable once again tonight for most terminals.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Sea breeze timing today could be off by a few hours.
...OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday Night-Sunday: VFR.
Monday: Chance MVFR and showers in the morning and again at night.
Otherwise, mainly VFR.
Tuesday: Chance of showers with MVFR. Afternoon into early evening E
wind gusts near 15-20 kt.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers in the morning and
MVFR for coastal terminals.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Due to the combination of a warm weekend (70 or higher over
land) and good boating conditions, a marine weather statement
will be issued to address cold water safety issues.
High pressure builds in from the west through Sunday morning,
then to to east. A cold front will moves through the waters
Monday morning. At this time, it appears sub small craft
conditions take shape throughout the entire forecast period.
Afternoon sea breezes, and perhaps a hint of an Ambrose jet
could get a few gusts to or just above 20 kt at times over the
western most near shore waters and out over the ocean Sunday.
Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will keep winds and seas
below sca levels for much of next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns exist through the period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/DW
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW