000
FXUS61 KOKX 071512
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1112 AM EDT Sun May 7 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure retreats offshore today, while multiple frontal
waves approach from the west. One of those waves will pass across
the area tonight, dragging a cold front through the area Monday
morning. The front stalls across the Mid Atlantic later in the day
with a frontal wave passing to the south late Monday night into
Tuesday. High pressure then builds in for the second half the
week. The high weakens on Friday, which may allow a back door
cold front to approach from the north and a weak frontal system
from the southwest next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast on track this morning.
Multiple waves of low pressure along a frontal boundary over
the Great Lakes and Midwest states will track east today, while
a surface ridge passes to the east of the area. As a result,
winds will back around to the S-SW this afternoon with
increasing mid and high level clouds. Any showers are likely
hold off until later this evening. Temperatures today will be
similar to Saturday, if not a degree or two warmer. Highs will
top out in the upper 70s across metro NE NJ, but most locations
away from the immediate coast will get into the lower and mid
70s. Coastal areas will likely see a sharp fall in the
afternoon, especially the south shore of Long Island, as winds
become southerly with local seabreeze enhancements.
Showers will likely spread into far western sections by early
this evening, then overspread most of the area by midnight.
There is some concern that one wave of low pressure passes to
the north, and another to the south tonight. This may produce
more of a break in the area with rain not being as widespread.
Regardless rainfall amounts are forecast to average a quarter
inch or less.
Outside of a few lingering showers across eastern LI/SE CT, the
rain will be over around or shortly after daybreak. With the
passage of the frontal wave, a cold front will slip south of the
area with winds becoming northerly. Lows will be several
degrees above normal in the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure returns on Monday, but it will remain several
degrees above normal with some cooler air not reaching the area
until Monday night into into Tuesday. The cold front stalls to
the south across the Mid Atlantic states with a frontal wave
passing south of the area late Monday night into Tuesday. The
area will be on the northern fringe of associated clouds and
rain and for the time low chances for rain will be limited to
western LI, NYC, NE NJ, and the portions of the Lower Hudson
Valley.
Lows Monday night will return to near normal, with highs
Tuesday a few degrees below normal, in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
No significant changes in the long term and stuck fairly close to
the NBM.
A shortwave departs Tuesday night with high pressure building into
the region on Wednesday and dominating through Friday. It will be
dry and warmer (Thurs and Fri) with heights rising aloft. Temps on
Wednesday will remain in the 60s with an easterly flow, however by
Thursday and Friday, temperatures warm as the flow turns more
southerly. Highs on Thursday reach the middle 70s and by Friday, we
cold see some 80 degree temperatures in NE NJ. While a few 80 degree
temperatures will remain possible across the lower hudson valley,
and interior portions of southern CT, its more likely they will
remain in the upper 70s at this time.
High pressure weakens late Friday into Saturday, as a frontal system
approaches from the west. Forecast guidance is not in good agreement
with the exact timing and details on this next feature. Will carry
slight chance POPs on Saturday, however, it appears it should be
more dry than wet. A better chance of showers comes Sunday.
Temperatures on Saturday will be in the 70s, with a low chance of
portions of NJ reaching 80. Slightly cooler conditions are expected
for Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak high pressure pushes offshore this afternoon and this evening.
A wave of low pressure passes nearby tonight.
VFR conditions are expected through at least 00z, and likely to
prevail until 3-6z for most terminals. -SHRA chances also increase
after 0z. Chances for MVFR conditions increase after 03z. Some
guidance is suggestive of a period IFR after 04z as rain showers move
in from the west but have not included in TAFs at this time. MVFR
conditions should prevail at most terminals from 04-08z, with
improvement beginning first for N and NW terminals, with city and
southern coastal terminals to follow towards 12z Mon.
This afternoon, winds will become S-SW in the afternoon near 10-12
kt. Along the coast, some of the terminals could see speeds increase
to near 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Wind speeds fall below 10kt
again tonight, and gradually shift towards the N and NW approaching
the Mon AM push.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of wind direction changes in association with sea breeze
could be off by 1-2 hours.
Uncertainty with how low cigs get towards and just after 03-04z
timeframe. Confidence remains low for IFR conditions overnight.
...OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday: VFR. Slight chance of showers and MVFR late at night.
Tuesday: Chance of showers with MVFR.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR.
Thursday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Weak high pressure passes to the east today with winds becoming
S-SW in the afternoon. A few gusts up to 20 kt are possible in
the ocean waters west of Fire Island Inlet this afternoon/early
this evening. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will keep
winds and seas below SCA through the end of the week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns exist through next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels may approach minor coastal flood benchmarks for
tonight`s high tide cycle across western LI Sound and the south
shore back bays of Nassau. This is due in combination to a
recent full moon and 1-2 ft easterly swell. This may continue
for the next few nights. No statements needed at this time.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...BC/DW
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...