000
FXUS61 KOKX 071758
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
158 PM EDT Sun May 7 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure retreats offshore this afternoon. A frontal wave
passes across the area tonight. Another frontal wave passes
across the Middle Atlantic Monday night into Tuesday. High
pressure then builds in for the second half the week. The high
weakens on Friday, which may allow a back door cold front to
approach from the north and a weak frontal system from the
southwest next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast on track this afternoon. Starting to see some thin high
clouds move in from the west ahead of the approaching wave of
low pressure. Sea breezes are also beginning to develop this
afternoon and should begin moving north across Long Island, into
the NYC metro, and southern CT.
Multiple waves of low pressure along a frontal boundary over
the Great Lakes and Midwest states will track east this
afternoon, while a surface ridge passes to the east of the
area. Clouds thicken and increase late this afternoon into the
evening. Any showers are likely hold off until later this
evening. Temperatures today will be similar to Saturday, if not
a degree or two warmer. Highs will top out in the upper 70s
across metro NE NJ, but most locations away from the immediate
coast will get into the lower and mid 70s. Coastal areas will
likely see a sharp fall in the afternoon, especially the south
shore of Long Island, as winds become southerly with local
seabreeze enhancements.
Showers will likely spread into far western sections by early
this evening, then overspread most of the area by midnight.
There is some concern that there will be a split in the precip
shield with an area of convection passing well south into the
Middle Atlantic and then showers along and north of the low
track over the region tonight. Some locations may not see as
much coverage of showers, especially the SW portion of the area
if the aforementioned distribution of showers ends up
materializing. Regardless rainfall amounts are forecast to
average a quarter inch or less.
Outside of a few lingering showers across eastern LI/SE CT, the
rain will be over around or shortly after daybreak. With the
passage of the frontal wave, a cold front will slip south of the
area with winds becoming northerly. Lows will be several
degrees above normal in the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure returns on Monday, but it will remain several
degrees above normal with some cooler air not reaching the area
until Monday night into into Tuesday. The cold front stalls to
the south across the Mid Atlantic states with a frontal wave
passing south of the area late Monday night into Tuesday. The
area will be on the northern fringe of associated clouds and
rain and for the time low chances for rain will be limited to
western LI, NYC, NE NJ, and the portions of the Lower Hudson
Valley.
Lows Monday night will return to near normal, with highs
Tuesday a few degrees below normal, in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
No significant changes in the long term and stuck fairly close to
the NBM.
A shortwave departs Tuesday night with high pressure building into
the region on Wednesday and dominating through Friday. It will be
dry and warmer (Thurs and Fri) with heights rising aloft. Temps on
Wednesday will remain in the 60s with an easterly flow, however by
Thursday and Friday, temperatures warm as the flow turns more
southerly. Highs on Thursday reach the middle 70s and by Friday, we
cold see some 80 degree temperatures in NE NJ. While a few 80 degree
temperatures will remain possible across the lower hudson valley,
and interior portions of southern CT, its more likely they will
remain in the upper 70s at this time.
High pressure weakens late Friday into Saturday, as a frontal system
approaches from the west. Forecast guidance is not in good agreement
with the exact timing and details on this next feature. Will carry
slight chance POPs on Saturday, however, it appears it should be
more dry than wet. A better chance of showers comes Sunday.
Temperatures on Saturday will be in the 70s, with a low chance of
portions of NJ reaching 80. Slightly cooler conditions are expected
for Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak high pressure pushes offshore through this evening. A wave of
low pressure passes nearby tonight and moves away early on Monday.
VFR conditions prevail through 03z, and are likely to prevail until
5-6z for some terminals. Showers chances also increase towards 0z.
Chances for MVFR conditions increase after 03z. Some guidance is
suggestive of a period IFR after 04-05z as rain showers move in from
the west but have not included in TAFs at this time. MVFR conditions
should prevail at most terminals from 04-08z, with improvement
beginning first for N and NW terminals, with city and southern
coastal terminals to follow towards the AM push. VFR conditions
prevail throughout Monday.
This afternoon winds will be S-SW near 10-12 kt with a few non-
prevailing gusts up to 20 kt at southern coastal terminals. Wind
speeds fall below 10 kt again tonight, and gradually shift towards
the N and NW approaching the Mon AM push. On Monday NNW winds become
more pure NW towards 300-320 towards the early afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Uncertainty with how low cigs get towards and just after 04-05z
timeframe. Confidence remains low for IFR conditions overnight.
...OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday afternoon: VFR, with NW winds. Slight chance of showers and
MVFR late at night towards Tue AM.
Tuesday: Chance of showers with MVFR.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR.
Thursday: VFR.
Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Weak high pressure passes to the east today with winds becoming
S-SW in the afternoon. A few gusts up to 20 kt are possible in
the ocean waters west of Fire Island Inlet this afternoon/early
this evening. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will keep
winds and seas below SCA through the end of the week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns exist through next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels may approach minor coastal flood benchmarks for
tonight`s high tide cycle across western LI Sound and the south
shore back bays of Nassau. This is due in combination to a
recent full moon and 1-2 ft easterly swell. This may continue
for the next few nights. No statements needed at this time.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...BC/DW
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...