000
FXUS61 KOKX 072244
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
644 PM EDT Sun May 7 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A frontal wave will move across tonight. Another frontal wave
will pass across the Middle Atlantic Monday night into Tuesday.
High pressure will then build from the Great Lakes Tuesday
night into Wednesday, setting up off the Southeast coast from
Thursday through the weekend. A back door cold front will
approach from the north and may enter the area late Friday night
into Saturday, then lift back to the north later this coming
weekend. Another frontal system will then begin to approach
from the southwest on Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Surface ridge axis will continue moving offshore into the
evening. A wave of low pressure currently near the Eastern
Great Lakes will track toward the CWA tonight. Clouds will
continue to increase and thicken this evening in its advance,
and some some showers are already moving into far wrn sections.
More widespread showers should move across across toward
midnight into the overnight.

CAM`s now suggest categorical PoP from NYC north and chance PoP
to the south. Forecast has been trended in that direction, as
radar shows precip shield has mostly split in two as expected,
with the southern part passing well south across the Delmarva.

Current trends still favor potential of amounts reaching close
to a quarter of inch across southern CT and eastern Long Island.
This rainfall should end up along and just north of the center
of the weak low. If the low ends up a bit further south, then
some of these slightly higher totals could move over the SW part
of the area. There is some limited elevated CAPE, enough to
develop some convective elements, but not enough for thunder.

A few showers could linger near the coast toward daybreak, but
should end quickly as the low moves away. Lows will be several
degrees above normal, in the 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure briefly returns on Monday. The region will lie on
the SW side of a larger upper trough over southeastern Canada
and the outer periphery of some ridging across the midwest.
Heights look to rise a bit Monday. Despite the passage of the
low pressure and associated front early Monday, the air mass
does not cool. NW flow should dominate through the day, holding
back sea breeze development. Any lingering clouds to start the
day quickly diminish with just some high clouds possible in the
afternoon. Highs will be in the lower 70s for most locations
except the NYC metro where readings in the middle to upper 70s
are forecast.

Another shortwave/vort max tracks across the Great Lakes Monday
night and then around the periphery of the aforementioned
troughing to our northeast on Tuesday. Another wave of low
pressure develops with this energy, but the most likely scenario
is for the track to be across the Middle Atlantic. This would
hold any showers with the low to our south and west. Much of the
12z model suite keeps the area dry late Monday night into
Tuesday. However, the GFS and several of its ensemble members
have some measurable precip nearing the southwestern portion of
the CWA. Will continue to indicate minimal PoPs for now, but
favor a scenario where the precip misses the areas to the south.

Lows will be close to normal Monday night in the middle 40s inland
to the upper 40s to low 50s near the coast. Highs on Tuesday are
forecast close to normal in the middle to upper 60s, largely due to
middle and high level clouds from the low passing to the south. A
light easterly flow also develops in the afternoon, which should
hold temperatures down closer to the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NWP guidance had trended faster with the last embedded
shortwave in a departing upper trough going into mid week,
meaning that sfc high pressure will build in earlier, with
milder temperatures than previously forecast and closer to
normal on Wednesday. Above normal temps then expected for at
least Thu-Fri as the high parks off the SE coast, with the
combo of NW flow aloft and a nearby thermal trough providing
more of a downslope W rather than SW flow. Temps on Fri likely
to reach the lower 80s from NYC west and south, and rise well
into the 70s elsewhere away from immediate south shore areas of
Long Island and SE CT.

An upper trough (or a closed low per GFS) diving SE across New
England Fri night should take a back door cold front into or
through the area late Fri night into Sat morning, but with
heights aloft rising quickly in the wake of the trough passage
daytime Sat, the front may be more likely than not to wash out
or lift back to the north by Sat afternoon. Until a clearer
trend emerges among the guidance have sided with temps remaining
above normal for Sat.

Increasing clouds and shower chances with a frontal system off
to the SW should lead to increasing shower chances and somewhat
lower but still above normal temps for Sunday, with highs mostly
in the 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Weak high pressure pushes offshore through this evening. A wave of
low pressure passes nearby tonight and moves away early on Monday.

VFR conditions prevail through 03z, and are likely to prevail until
5-6z for some terminals. Showers chances also increase towards 0z.
Chances for MVFR conditions increase after 03z. Some guidance is
suggestive of a period IFR after 04-05z as rain showers move in from
the west but have not included in TAFs at this time. MVFR conditions
should prevail at most terminals from 04-08z, with improvement
beginning first for N and NW terminals, with city and southern
coastal terminals to follow towards the AM push. VFR conditions
prevail throughout Monday.

Through early this evening the winds will be S-SW near 10-12 kt with
a few non-prevailing gusts up to 20 kt at southern coastal
terminals. Wind speeds fall below 10 kt again tonight, and gradually
shift towards the N and NW approaching the Mon AM push. On Monday
NNW winds become more pure NW towards 300-320 towards the early
afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Some uncertainty with how low cigs get towards and just after 04-05z
timeframe. Therefore confidence remains low for IFR conditions
overnight. Also, improvement to IFR early Mon morning may be off by
1-2 hours.

 ...OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday afternoon: VFR, with NW winds.

Monday night: Mainly VFR, with a slight chance of showers and MVFR
towards early Tue AM.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with a slight chance of showers for mainly
southern terminals.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR.

Thursday: VFR.

Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
A few gusts up to 20 kt are possible on the ocean waters and the
Great SOuth Bay into early this evening. Otherwise, a weak
pressure gradient should keep winds and seas below advy levels
through the end of the week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns exist through next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
Water levels may approach minor coastal flood benchmarks for
tonight`s high tide cycle across the western Sound and the south
shore back bays of Nassau. This may also occur for the next few
nights as well. This is due in combination to a recent full moon
and 1-2 ft easterly swell. However, based on latest trends no
statements are needed at this time.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/DS
NEAR TERM...BG/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...BG/DS
HYDROLOGY...BG/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DS