000
FXUS61 KOKX 080002
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
802 PM EDT Sun May 7 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal wave will move across tonight. Another frontal wave
will pass across the Middle Atlantic Monday night into Tuesday.
High pressure will then build from the Great Lakes Tuesday
night into Wednesday, setting up off the Southeast coast from
Thursday through the weekend. A back door cold front will
approach from the north and may enter the area late Friday night
into Saturday, then lift back to the north later this coming
weekend. Another frontal system will then begin to approach
from the southwest on Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Surface ridge axis will continue moving offshore into the
evening. A wave of low pressure currently near the Eastern
Great Lakes will track toward the CWA tonight. Clouds will
continue to increase and thicken this evening in its advance,
and some some showers are already moving into far wrn sections.
More widespread showers should move across across toward
midnight into the overnight.
CAM`s now suggest categorical PoP from NYC north and chance PoP
to the south. Forecast has been trended in that direction, as
radar shows precip shield has mostly split in two as expected,
with the southern part passing well south across the Delmarva.
Current trends still favor potential of amounts reaching close
to a quarter of inch across southern CT and eastern Long Island.
This rainfall should end up along and just north of the center
of the weak low. If the low ends up a bit further south, then
some of these slightly higher totals could move over the SW part
of the area. There is some limited elevated CAPE, enough to
develop some convective elements, but not enough for thunder.
A few showers could linger near the coast toward daybreak, but
should end quickly as the low moves away. Lows will be several
degrees above normal, in the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure briefly returns on Monday. The region will lie on
the SW side of a larger upper trough over southeastern Canada
and the outer periphery of some ridging across the midwest.
Heights look to rise a bit Monday. Despite the passage of the
low pressure and associated front early Monday, the air mass
does not cool. NW flow should dominate through the day, holding
back sea breeze development. Any lingering clouds to start the
day quickly diminish with just some high clouds possible in the
afternoon. Highs will be in the lower 70s for most locations
except the NYC metro where readings in the middle to upper 70s
are forecast.
Another shortwave/vort max tracks across the Great Lakes Monday
night and then around the periphery of the aforementioned
troughing to our northeast on Tuesday. Another wave of low
pressure develops with this energy, but the most likely scenario
is for the track to be across the Middle Atlantic. This would
hold any showers with the low to our south and west. Much of the
12z model suite keeps the area dry late Monday night into
Tuesday. However, the GFS and several of its ensemble members
have some measurable precip nearing the southwestern portion of
the CWA. Will continue to indicate minimal PoPs for now, but
favor a scenario where the precip misses the areas to the south.
Lows will be close to normal Monday night in the middle 40s inland
to the upper 40s to low 50s near the coast. Highs on Tuesday are
forecast close to normal in the middle to upper 60s, largely due to
middle and high level clouds from the low passing to the south. A
light easterly flow also develops in the afternoon, which should
hold temperatures down closer to the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NWP guidance had trended faster with the last embedded
shortwave in a departing upper trough going into mid week,
meaning that sfc high pressure will build in earlier, with
milder temperatures than previously forecast and closer to
normal on Wednesday. Above normal temps then expected for at
least Thu-Fri as the high parks off the SE coast, with the
combo of NW flow aloft and a nearby thermal trough providing
more of a downslope W rather than SW flow. Temps on Fri likely
to reach the lower 80s from NYC west and south, and rise well
into the 70s elsewhere away from immediate south shore areas of
Long Island and SE CT.
An upper trough (or a closed low per GFS) diving SE across New
England Fri night should take a back door cold front into or
through the area late Fri night into Sat morning, but with
heights aloft rising quickly in the wake of the trough passage
daytime Sat, the front may be more likely than not to wash out
or lift back to the north by Sat afternoon. Until a clearer
trend emerges among the guidance have sided with temps remaining
above normal for Sat.
Increasing clouds and shower chances with a frontal system off
to the SW should lead to increasing shower chances and somewhat
lower but still above normal temps for Sunday, with highs mostly
in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A wave of low pressure approaches tonight, moving across overnight.
Another wave of low pressure approaches Monday night.
Conditions initially VFR but there will be MVFR at times. Rain
showers will be moving across the region this evening and then
tapering off eventually overnight into early Monday morning
from west to east. VFR and dry conditions are expected to return
Monday morning and continue for the remainder of the TAF
period.
Winds generally SW near 8-12 kt this evening with some evening gusts
up to near 20 kt. Winds will become more westerly late this evening
into overnight and then more NW going into Monday morning. Wind
speeds will not change too much overnight into Monday morning but
will increase to 10-15 kt Monday afternoon with gusts developing up
to near 20 kt. These gusts will diminish Monday evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
The duration of MVFR could be off by a few hours. Categories may
fluctuate between MVFR and VFR tonight. Brief IFR possible
overnight.
...OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday Night: VFR.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers during the day mainly
for western terminals in the region.
Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: VFR.
Friday: Mainly VFR. SW-W wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
A few gusts up to 20 kt are possible on the ocean waters and the
Great South Bay into early this evening. Otherwise, a weak
pressure gradient should keep winds and seas below advy levels
through the end of the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns exist through next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels may approach minor coastal flood benchmarks for
tonight`s high tide cycle across the western Sound and the south
shore back bays of Nassau. This may also occur for the next few
nights as well. This is due in combination to a recent full moon
and 1-2 ft easterly swell. However, based on latest trends no
statements are needed at this time.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/DS
NEAR TERM...BG/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BG/DS
HYDROLOGY...BG/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...