000
FXUS61 KOKX 081437
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1037 AM EDT Mon May 8 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure builds in from the northwest though tonight,
A weak wave of low pressure passes to the south on Tuesday,
followed by high pressure building in for the second half of the
week. A back door cold front will then approach from the north
and may enter the area late Friday night into Saturday, then
lift back to the north later this coming weekend. Another
frontal system will then begin to approach from the southwest on
Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast on track this morning.
High pressure builds in from the NW today with mostly sunny
skies. It looks to be just as warm as Sunday, with much of the
area in the low to mid 70s, with the mid and upper 70s across
the NYC metro. Due to an offshore NW wind, even immediate
coastal locations will experience similar values. NW winds may
gusts up to 20 mph this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
With an upper low over the Canadian Maritimes and a shear axis
over the Great Lakes, this will force a frontal wave to take a
track south of the area across the Mid Atlantic states later
tonight into Tuesday. This will keep the area on the northern
fringe of the associated cloud cover and rain. Mid and high
level clouds will increase tonight with the best chance for
showers during the morning hours Tuesday, mainly across the NYC
metro, NE NJ, and western LI. There will be tight gradient from
SW to NE and this may shift a little the next 24h. Any rainfall
across the area will be light and amounting to no more than a
few hundredths of an inch.
Skies clear Tuesday afternoon with a large area of high pressure
centered over the Great Lakes building toward the area for the
the second half of the week. Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday
will be close to seasonable levels. Tuesday will be a bit cooler
due to the cloud cover and possible showers.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No significant changes in the long term and stuck close to previous
forecast and/or NBM.
Forecast starts off with high pressure over the region. Expect above
normal temps Thursday and Friday as the high parks off the SE coast,
with the combo of NW flow aloft and a nearby thermal trough
providing more of a downslope W rather than SW flow. Temps on Fri
likely to reach the lower 80s from NYC west and south, and rise well
into the 70s elsewhere away from immediate south shore areas of Long
Island and SE CT.
An upper trough (or a closed low per GFS) diving SE across New
England Fri night should take a back door cold front into or
through the area late Fri night into Sat morning, but with
heights aloft rising quickly in the wake of the trough passage
daytime Sat, the front may be more likely than not to wash out
or lift back to the north by Sat afternoon. Until a clearer
trend emerges among the guidance have sided with temps remaining
above normal for Sat.
Increasing clouds and shower chances with a frontal system off
to the SW should lead to increasing shower chances and somewhat
lower but still above normal temps for Sunday, with highs mostly
in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak high pressure builds in from the northwest though tonight,
while a frontal boundary stalls over the Mid Atlantic states.
VFR through the TAF period.
W-NW winds 10-15 kt with some guststo 20 kt. These gusts will
diminish this evening. Outside of the NYC terminals, winds will
become light and variable after around midnight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may be occasional at times this afternoon. An occasional
gust higher than forecast can not be ruled out.
Low chance of a shower early Tuesday morning as low pressure
passes south and west of the area.
...OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers during the day mainly
for western terminals in the region.
Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: VFR.
Friday: VFR. SW-W wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient should keep winds and seas below advy
levels through the end of the week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns exist through next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Based on the Sunday night high tide cycle performance and
gradually lowering water levels, general thinking is that
water levels will stay below minor coastal flood benchmarks the
next couple of nights across western LI Sound and the south
shore back bays Nassau. The higher than normal waters levels
have been due to a combination of the recent full moon and a
1-2 ft easterly swell.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/DW
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...