000
FXUS61 KOKX 082052
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
452 PM EDT Mon May 8 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak wave of low pressure passes to the south on Tuesday, followed
by high pressure building in for Wednesday. The high drifts south
Wednesday night as a backdoor cold front approaches and moves
through Saturday. A wave of low pressure tracks along the front
and affects the area late Saturday into the beginning of next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak high pressure this evening will give way to an approaching
wave of low pressure from the Ohio Valley tonight. The low is
in association with a shortwave/vortmax that will move through
the Great Lakes and then SE around the southern periphery of an
upper low over the Canadian Maritimes. Conditions are expected
to remain dry tonight as the flow remains northerly and the
atmosphere below 15kft is dry. There will be increasing cloud
cover above this height tonight as the system approaches. Lows
will be in the 40s inland and the lower 50s near the coast.
The low tracks across the Middle Atlantic Tuesday morning and
then offshore Tuesday afternoon. Guidance has continued to come
into good agreement on the precip staying well south of the
region. Have trended PoPs down across the SW tier of the region
and will now only carry a slight chance PoP Tuesday morning. The
most likely outcome is for dry conditions to prevail, but a
sprinkle cannot be completely ruled out across the SW part of
NYC and NE NJ corridor. Otherwise, mid and high clouds are
expected on the north side of the system. These clouds look to
diminish and shift away from the area mid to late afternoon. A
NE flow becomes E-SE in the afternoon, which should help cap
high temperatures in the middle to upper 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper ridging builds aloft Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Sprawling high pressure over the Great Lakes builds in during
this period. Tuesday night will be chilly with lows in the 40s
for most locations. Highs on Wednesday look close to normal in
the upper 60s and lower 70s with mostly sunny skies.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The long term period is relatively quiet with above normal
temperatures Wednesday into the upcoming weekend. High pressure
will be over the region midweek, and drift south as a weak
backdoor cold front moves toward the area Friday and likely
pushes to the south late Saturday into Saturday night as another
high builds to the north. There is a chance that the front even
dissipates as the boundary moves toward the coast. The will be
little moisture and little to no precipitation is expected.
There is uncertainty as to how far another high building in from
Canada will push, and where the next frontal system will track.
Some guidance keeps the wave to the south, with the northern
periphery of the precipitation shield moving across Long Island,
while some guidance tracks the low farther to the north. With
the uncertainty have used the NBM probabilities through the
extended period. Also, the temperatures look reasonable, and
used the NBM. However, depending on the timing of the front, if
it moves through, temperatures Saturday may be too high.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak high pressure builds in from the northwest though tonight,
while a frontal boundary stalls over the Mid Atlantic states. A
weak disturbance will pass south of the terminals on Tuesday.
VFR through the TAF period.
W-NW winds 10-15 kt with some gusts to 20 kt. These gusts will
diminish this evening. Outside of the NYC terminals, winds will
become light and variable after around midnight. Winds become NE 5-
10 kt early Tuesday before become S-SE 5-10G15 kt by mid afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Winds at KLGA should prevail at or north of 310 magnetic for the
rest of the day into this evening. Winds at KJFK and KEWR should
prevail at or south of 310 magnetic through at least 23-00z,
but may begin to prevail north of 310 as early as around that
time. Gusts at KJFK/KEWR/KTEB might be only occasional.
...OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z Tuesday through Saturday...VFR. SW-W wind gusts 15-20 kt
Friday.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient should keep winds and seas below advy
levels through Saturday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns exist through next Monday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels will stay below minor coastal flood benchmarks
with tonight`s high tide, but could come close Tuesday night
across the most vulnerable spots of the south shore back bays
in Nassau County. The higher than normal waters levels have
been due to a combination of the recent full moon and a 1-2 ft
easterly swell.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/MET
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JC/IRD
MARINE...DS/MET
HYDROLOGY...DS/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...