000
FXUS61 KOKX 092150
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
550 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the area tonight and remains in place
through Wednesday. High pressure drifts to the south Thursday.
A cold front approaches Friday and passes slowly across the area
Saturday into Saturday night as a weak wave of low pressure
passes to the south. High pressure builds in from the northwest
Saturday night and Sunday. Another wave of low pressure may
impact the area late Sunday into Monday. Dry weather briefly
returns Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the north.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Clouds have moved out of the region as high pressure builds in
from the northwest. Updated for current conditions and trends
into late tonight. With the high building into the region winds
will become light and variable to near calm.
Upper and mid-level clouds associated with a departing
shortwave will dissipate as surface high pressure builds into
the area tonight and into Thursday morning. Winds become
generally light and variable tonight with clear skies. These
conditions combined with low dew points will allow low
temperatures to drop into the lower 40s and upper 30s for areas
away from the coast with a good radiational cooling set up. Some
typically cooler spots may briefly drop into the middle 30s.
This will allow for the potential of patchy frost in interior
areas that are able to cool into the middle 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure becomes positioned over the area with heights
gradually rising through the day. Though we will be under clear
skies with strong surface heating, cooler upper levels will prevent
surface temperatures from rising much higher than the low to middle
70s, still about 5 degrees above average. As the center of the high
pressure shifts south of the area, light winds will become primarily
SW into the afternoon under mostly clear skies allowing for a slight
increase in dew points later in the day.
The SW flow with increased moisture will prevent temperatures from
dropping as much as Tuesday night. Radiational cooling is still
favorable but with more moisture, lows will only be in the middle to
upper 40s for the coolest spots. Coastal areas and the NYC metro
will only fall into the upper 40s to low 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A upper ridge and surface high over the region Thursday will be
shifting to the south into Friday as a low across Hudson Bay of
eastern Canada moves to the south and east. This low will push a
cold front through the region Saturday into Saturday night while
another wave of low pressure tracks eastward along the front.
While there is little moisture or forcing with the cold front
showers will be possible with the low. There is still some
uncertainty as to how far south the front will be pushed, and then
the track of the low over or near the area Friday night into
Saturday night. Have maintained slight and low end chance
probabilities as per the NBM. Ahead of the cold front temperatures
will be above normal Thursday into Saturday, with the highest
temperatures likely occurring Friday, when temperatures will be 10
to near 15 degrees above normal. With little to no instability or
CAPE will not mention any thunder with the frontal passage or wave
of low pressure. Also, there remains uncertainty with the next low
to potentially impact the area Sunday into the beginning of next
week as high pressure between this system and an approaching cold
front to the north weakens. Once again with the uncertainty have
used the NBM probabilities. Temperatures Sunday into next week will
be near or slightly above seasonal normals.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds in from the northwest tonight into
Wednesday. This will result in a dry forecast with VFR
conditions.
S/SE flow around 10 kt in a sea breeze is expected to continue at
all terminals through about 00z. Winds diminish late this evening
and likely become light and variable overnight. A light W flow to
start Wednesday morning before afternoon sea breezes once again. Any
locations that don`t see a sea breeze will veer more to the NW. The
sea breeze likely makes it through KJFK, KLGA, KHPN and east. KTEB
and KEWR likely remain just west of the boundary in a NW flow
through at least 00z.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Winds may become light and variable earlier than what is shown in
the TAF.
...OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday Afternoon-Friday...VFR.
Saturday and Sunday...Possible MVFR in a chance of showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
No changes to winds and seas at this time.
A weak pressure gradient over the area will result in sub-SCA
conditions on all waters through the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through Tuesday of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides are trending down, since a recent full moon, and
past nights have fallen short of minor coastal flooding benchmarks.
And once again water levels are likely to fall short of minor
coastal flood benchmarks during tonight`s high tide cycle across the
south shore back bays. An E/SE flow today may keep levels close to
what we saw Monday night.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/MW
NEAR TERM...MET/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...MET/MW
HYDROLOGY...MET/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...