000
FXUS61 KOKX 091629
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1229 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will produce primarily fair weather through the middle
of the week. A cold front approaches form the northwest on
Friday and passes slowly across the area on Saturday. Weak waves
of low pressure along the front will pass south of the area
Saturday into Saturday night as high pressure builds in from the
northwest. A stronger wave of low pressure may impact the area
late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast is on track with only minor adjustments to temperature
and dewpoints to reflect the most recent observations and trends into
the afternoon.

With a sfc boundary south of the fcst area, easterly component
winds will keep temps today about 10 degrees cooler than
yesterday. This puts the numbers right around the daily normals.
Mid and high clouds, along with some high based aftn cu, will
keep the area in the partly to mostly cloudy range. Any rain
with the upr trof axis is modeled to pass south of the cwa invof
the deeper moisture, so a dry fcst in accordance with the NBM
has been issued.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The mid and high clouds exit, and the cu dissipates tngt. Light
winds as well with a weak pres gradient over the area, will allow
temps to drop into the 40s for most of the area. Warmer in the city,
and colder outlying areas. Due to the setup, went closer to a
MAV/MET blend as opposed to the NBM, which seemed too warm in
the favored cool spots. Lows therefore in the 30s in some of the
outlying areas, with perhaps a few readings near freezing in
the pine barrens.

A big diurnal swing on Wed as temps rebound 30+ degrees abv mrng
lows outside of the city. Dry with a broad ahead of high pres
building in. A sfc trof sinks into the area Wed ngt, but this is
expected to have little effect, excepts for altering the wind fields
and allowing for some insulating clouds to potentially gather over
the area. Stuck close to the NBM for overnight lows as a result.

Warmer on Thu with the dry wx possibly continuing. The 00Z models
have introduced the potential for some NW flow activity late in the
day or overnight. The NBM has not caught up to this yet, so the fcst
is still dry. Something to watch though. If the energy get to the
area by Thu aftn, there could be some tstms. high temps around 80
for the normal hot spots attm, with overnight temps abv normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
During this time, an upper low drops southeast from Hudson Bay
across eastern Canada, sending a cold front across the area on
Saturday. The 00Z operational suite wants to send the front through
with little fanfare, while the NBM supports maintaining low chances
for showers late Friday night through Saturday night with waves of
low pressure passing south of the area. The EPS and GEFs do show the
potential for a low QPF event. So for the time, will keep a slight
chance of showers in the forecast. A more robust shortwave drops
southeast from the Great Lakes on Sunday, with a frontal wave
bringing a better chance of rain late Sunday into Monday. There are
some differences in the ensemble means with the GEFs the
northernmost and strongest, while the Canadian is suppressed well
south with a dry forecast. For the time, will stay with a chance of
rain during this time.

It will also start off unseasonably warm Friday into Saturday with
readings well into the 70s to around 80, warmest across the NYC
metro and inland areas. Following a cold frontal passage Saturday,
expect a gradual cool Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A wave of low pressure over the Ohio Valley will track to the south
today and pass off the Mid Atlantic coast this evening. High pressure
will then build in from the northwest tonight into Wednesday. This
will result in a dry forecast with VFR conditions.

N-NE winds generally less than 10 kt will gradually veer to the E/SE
this afternoon, increasing to around 10 kt along the coast. The
sea breeze has advanced quickly along the CT coast, with wind
shifts seen at KBDR and KGON. Winds are likely to stay east of
true south. KLGA should lock in on an ENE sound breeze through
late afternoon. Winds diminish this evening and likely become
light and variable overnight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely for timing of wind shifts today. Winds may also
get close to 180 at KJFK and KLGA in the late afternoon.

 ...OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday-Thursday...VFR.

Friday...VFR. SW wind G15-20kt.

.Saturday. VFR. Slight chance of showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A broad area of high pres building into the region will keep
winds and waves blw sca lvls thru Thu. Marginal SCA conditions
are possible on the ocean waters Friday afternoon/evening with
SW gusts approaching 25 kt, with seas building to around 4 ft.
Otherwise, sub-SCA conditions will continue.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected thru Mon.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels are likely to fall short of minor coastal flood
benchmarks tonight across the most vulnerable spots of the
south shore back bays in Nassau County. Astronomical tides are
trending down and recent nights have fallen short. An E/SE flow
today may keep levels close to what we saw Monday night. The
higher than normal waters levels have been due to a combination
of the recent full moon and a 1-2 ft easterly swell.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...12/DW
NEAR TERM...12/BR/MW
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...12/DW
HYDROLOGY...12/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...