000
FXUS61 KOKX 101114
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
714 AM EDT Wed May 10 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the Great Lakes through tonight. This
area of high pressure will then shift south of the waters and
offshore Thursday through Friday. A weakening cold front moves
in from the north Friday night. This frontal passage is expected
on Saturday, with another weak system possible on Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast is on track this morning. Slight adjustments were made
to hourly temperatures and dewpoints to better match observed
trends.
High pressure from the Great Lakes builds in today but the core or
axis of this high pressure stays south and west of the region. The
models conveys in their MSLP fields daytime trough development
within the region, allowing for more NW flow for Lower Hudson
Valley, Southern CT, and Northeast NJ, with a greater southerly
component to the flow for the rest of the region, including
most coastal sections.
The high temperature and wind forecast used NBM and MOS
guidance, with some synoptic enhancement to the sea breeze for
latter half of this afternoon expected. Forecast highs are in
the lower 70s for most locations, with slightly cooler
temperatures expected along the immediate coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
In the mid levels, ridge axis remains west of the area tonight
with a shortwave passing by mainly northeast of the area
Thursday. There will be some ridging in the mid levels
thereafter going into Friday night.
High pressure will continue to build in tonight from the west as
the trough that developed earlier in the day will weaken. The
core and axis of high pressure remain to the west of the area.
The high fully moves out into the Atlantic on Thursday. The high
remains offshore and nearly the same strength Thursday night
through Friday.
Weather expected to remain mainly dry much of the short term
with exception of Friday night. Did not mention any shower
activity with shortwave as there will be very little moisture to
work with more westerly flow.
The synoptic pattern changes more Friday night with the high
pressure area weakening as it moves farther south and east
farther out into the Atlantic. Meanwhile, there will be a
weakening cold front moving in from the north. This will bring
a chance for rain showers. Models are incoherent and inconsistent
with not just the rainfall but also the instability Friday night,
so will be leaving thunder out of the forecast for the time
being.
850 mb temperatures will be gradually rising tonight into
Thursday. A pretty consistent coherent signal for positive trend
in temperatures for the forecast highs Thursday compared to the
previous day. 850 mb temperatures trend higher by a few degrees
on Friday compared to the previous day.
Also trending up will be the dewpoints and by late Friday
night, for the coast, low level relative humidity will be
getting close to saturation. Especially with any lulls in the
rain shower activity plus surface winds remaining relatively
light, this will allow for at least some patchy fog to develop.
For the current forecast, only put in eastern coastal areas but
locations farther west could also potentially have fog develop
for late Friday night.
Overall, temperatures will be rising and getting more above
normal during the short term period. Highs forecast generally
ranging from the 70s into lower 80s Thursday and upper 60s to
mid 80s on Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The models were generally in good agreement so the NBM was
followed. A cool front passes on Sat, with some shwrs possible
invof the front. Highs still abv normal in the 70s most areas.
The guidance may be a little low in spots due to the proximity
of the front and a difficulty resolving gradients. Highs may
therefore verify a little warmer than fcst attm. Dry and
slightly cooler behind the front Sun with high pres.
Some modeling problems arise on Mon with the GFS bringing in a
strong wave and the ECMWF keeping the area dry under high pres.
The blended approach was followed and low chances for pops in
the fcst. Too far out to have confidence in the wave, especially
because it breaks off from a stagnant upr low over the plains.
Not enough of a signal in the models yet for pops to show up in
the NBM for Tue. Still far away though and there is a
suggestion in the ECMWF that the upr trof could spark a few
shwrs.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure settles over the area today.
VFR through the TAF period.
Light and variable to NW winds this mrng, then afternoon sea
breezes develop. Winds become light W aft 3Z as the sea breeze
weakens. Winds WNW up to around 10kt on Thu.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible aft 15Z for timing of the sea breeze.
...OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday-Friday...VFR.
Saturday and Sunday...Possible MVFR in a chance of showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
While there will be some synoptic enhancement to the sea breeze
for the latter half of this afternoon, gusts to 25 kt are only
expected to be occasional late this afternoon into the start of
this evening for western coastal ocean waters. Otherwise, for
the rest of the marine zones, expected below SCA conditions
through this evening. Wind gusts are forecast to reach near
15-20 kt Thursday afternoon into early evening. Overall,
expecting below SCA conditions for the rest of tonight through
Thursday night. SCA wind gusts could return for the ocean Friday
afternoon into Friday night with otherwise below SCA conditions
continuing.
Winds and seas are expected to remain blw sca lvls Sat thru the
middle of next week with a lack of strong systems impacting the
waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through Tuesday of next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$