000
FXUS61 KOKX 121957
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
357 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A surface trough remains over the area today with high pressure to
our south today and tonight. A cold front slowly moves through
during Saturday into evening, followed by high pressure building in
from the northwest on Sunday. Weak high pressure in place early next
week gradually erodes as a cold front sinks down from New England.
The front moves through the region midweek, with high pressure
building in thereafter late next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Temperatures are not expected to break records this afternoon, but
they are well above the seasonal average. The sea breeze has pushed
through much of Long Island, which is leading to cooling
temperatures and rising dewpoints, particularly for coastal areas
along the southern side of Long Island. Followed a blend between
consensus of CAMS and NBM for temperatures and dewpoints this
afternoon and early evening to account for the sea breeze
circulation.
A surface trough with mid-level PVA and elevated 700 RH this
afternoon and evening is beginning to spin up a few isolated
showers which will continue through early this evening for
southern CT and eastern Long Island with far eastern areas
having a better chance, albeit still isolated. Not all CAMS were
in agreement on isolated showers developing, but most agree on
SBCAPE values of around 100-300 J/kg. Because of this, there is
also an isolated thunderstorm chance with the slight chance POPs
for far eastern areas.
High pressure remains to our south and east which will continue to
bring in southwesterly flow into the region, after the sea breeze
has weakened. The flow will not be strong, but will continue the
warm air advection pattern into the night. The southwesterlies will
also advect some moisture from mid-Atlantic states overnight which
could lead to increasing cloud cover. With increasing clouds and
warm air advection overnight, lows are likely to be above the
seasonal average and may break, tie or approach record record
maximum low temperature records (see climate section below).-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Saturday begins with a cold front not too far to our north. The
front will slowly sag south through the forecast area through the
day and into early evening. This will bring slight chance to chance
PoPs during this period. CAPE looks minimal, so will leave out the
mention of thunder for now. In spite of the cloud cover, it`ll still
manage to be an above-normal day regarding high temperatures.
Expecting highs to be mostly in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
High pressure builds in behind the cold front later Saturday evening
through Sunday night. Dry weather through the period, but cirrus
could become dense enough at times to filter the sunshine on Sunday.
High temperatures will be closer to normal with a N-NW flow.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Into next week, the region lies on the southwestern periphery of
longwave troughing centered over far eastern Canada, with an
embedded closed upper low spinning near the Canadian Maritimes.
A light NW wind backs SW on Monday as weak high pressure shifts
south to the start the period. Meanwhile, a shortwave rotating
around the trough dives south out of Canada into midweek, sending a
cold front through New England and toward the region. Tuesday is
likely the mildest day of the period, as warmer air flows in with
the tightening pressure gradient leading to increasing SW winds.
BUFKIT soundings indicate a well-mixed BL during the afternoon, and
with globals progging 850 mb temps in the low teens (C), should
allow the surface to warm well into the 70s and 80s away from the
immediate shoreline.
With limited moisture to work with, global ensembles are light with
any associated QPF with the frontal passage. The region may even
remain dry. Best chance of any wet weather would be Tuesday night or
early Wednesday.
The front pushes through the region Wednesday, with any lingering
rain chances diminishing as cooler, drier air advects into the
region. High pressure quickly builds in from the Great Lakes,
tracking overhead into late week. This should maintain dry
conditions through the end of the period. With subtle adjustment,
followed national blended guidance for this update.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A surface trough will remain over the area while high pressure
remains offshore. A cold front will approach from the north late
tonight and pass through early Sat morning.
VFR, with perhaps slight chance of a sprinkle or shower late
tonight into Saturday morning.
S flow close to 15 kt ongoing at KJFK, while winds at the other NYC
metros fluctuate between WNW and WSW, with the former gusting to 15-
18kt at times before 23Z. KLGA may see a light S sea breeze this
evening from 00Z-04Z.
Gusts abate after 23Z and winds diminish tonight to SW less than 10
kt. Cold fropa followed by NW-N flow 5-10 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected attm.
...OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday afternoon through Monday night: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. SW-W flow 15G20-25kt.
Wednesday: VFR. NW flow 10-15G20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Sub SCA conditions expected through the weekend under a weak
pressure gradient, only approaching, but not exceeding 25 kt gusts
this afternoon.
Increasing SW winds late Monday and Tuesday may allow for a period
of wind gusts above 25 kt on some waters. Ocean seas may build to
between 4 and 6 ft during this time as well. Conditions improve on
all waters by Wednesday, with sub-SCA conds expected thereafter.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record Maximum High Temperatures for Friday, May 12th
-----------------------------------------------------
Newark NJ..........92 (1959)
Bridgeport CT......88 (1991)
Central Park NY....93 (1881)
LaGuardia NY.......88 (1991,1948)
Kennedy NY.........89 (1991)
Islip NY...........87 (1991)
Record Maximum Low Temperatures for Saturday, May 13th
-----------------------------------------------------
Central Park........69 (1956)
LaGuardia...........67 (1956)
Kennedy.............64 (1991)
Islip...............60 (1991,1985,1975)
Newark..............68 (1985,1956)
Bridgeport..........59 (1985)
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/JT
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JC/BR/DR
HYDROLOGY...JC/BR/DR
CLIMATE...