000
FXUS61 KOKX 130019
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
819 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front approaches from the north tonight, passing through
the area Saturday morning. The front moves slowly south during
Saturday into evening, followed by high pressure building in
from the northwest on Sunday. Weak high pressure in place early
next week gradually erodes as a cold front sinks down from New
England. The front moves through the region midweek, with high
pressure building in thereafter late next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A few showers that developed over southern Connecticut over the
past several hours have largely dissipated with decreasing lapse
rates.

High pressure remains to our south and east which will result in
a continued southwest flow overnight. The flow will not be
strong, but will continue the warm air advection pattern into
the night. Mid-level moisture advecting ahead of an approaching
cold front will allow for increasing clouds overnight. With
increasing clouds and warm air advection, lows are likely to be
above the seasonal average and may break, tie or approach record
record maximum low temperature records (see climate section
below).
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Saturday begins with a cold front working across the area in the
morning. The front will slowly sag south through the forecast
area through the day and into early evening. This will bring
slight chance to chance PoPs during this period. CAPE looks
minimal, so will leave out the mention of thunder for now. In
spite of the cloud cover, it`ll still manage to be an above-
normal day regarding high temperatures. Expecting highs to be
mostly in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

High pressure builds in behind the cold front later Saturday evening
through Sunday night. Dry weather through the period, but cirrus
could become dense enough at times to filter the sunshine on Sunday.
High temperatures will be closer to normal with a N-NW flow.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Into next week, the region lies on the southwestern periphery of
longwave troughing centered over far eastern Canada, with an
embedded closed upper low spinning near the Canadian Maritimes.

A light NW wind backs SW on Monday as weak high pressure shifts
south to the start the period. Meanwhile, a shortwave rotating
around the trough dives south out of Canada into midweek, sending a
cold front through New England and toward the region. Tuesday is
likely the mildest day of the period, as warmer air flows in with
the tightening pressure gradient leading to increasing SW winds.
BUFKIT soundings indicate a well-mixed BL during the afternoon, and
with globals progging 850 mb temps in the low teens (C), should
allow the surface to warm well into the 70s and 80s away from the
immediate shoreline.

With limited moisture to work with, global ensembles are light with
any associated QPF with the frontal passage. The region may even
remain dry. Best chance of any wet weather would be Tuesday night or
early Wednesday.

The front pushes through the region Wednesday, with any lingering
rain chances diminishing as cooler, drier air advects into the
region. High pressure quickly builds in from the Great Lakes,
tracking overhead into late week. This should maintain dry
conditions through the end of the period. With subtle adjustment,
followed national blended guidance for this update.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A surface trough will remain over the area while high pressure
remains offshore. A cold front will approach from the north late
tonight and pass through early Sat morning.

VFR, with perhaps slight chance of a sprinkle or shower late
tonight into Saturday morning.

W-SW winds diminish to less than 10 kt this evening. The cold
frontal passage will be followed NW-N flow 5-10 kt Saturday
morning. However, with a weak flow and the possibility of a
thermal trough in the afternoon, a seabreeze component is
possible across LI and coastal CT.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Seabreeze possible Saturday afternoon at KJFK.

 ...OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday afternoon through Monday night: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. SW-W flow 15G20-25kt.
Wednesday: VFR. NW flow 10-15G20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
sub-SCA conditions are expected through the weekend under a
weak pressure gradient.

Increasing SW winds late Monday and Tuesday may allow for a period
of wind gusts above 25 kt on some waters. Ocean seas may build to
between 4 and 6 ft during this time as well. Conditions improve on
all waters by Wednesday, with sub-SCA conds expected thereafter.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Record Maximum Low Temperatures for Saturday, May 13th
-----------------------------------------------------
Central Park........69 (1956)
LaGuardia...........67 (1956)
Kennedy.............64 (1991)
Islip...............60 (1991,1985,1975)
Newark..............68 (1985,1956)
Bridgeport..........59 (1985)
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/JT
NEAR TERM...BR/DR
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC/BR/DR
HYDROLOGY...JC/BR/DR
CLIMATE...