discussion on 2023-05-13

000
FXUS61 KOKX 131350
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
950 AM EDT Sat May 13 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through the area late this morning and stalls
just offshore through the afternoon. High pressure builds in tonight
through Sunday night and moves south of the region Monday night.
A cold front approaches from the north Tuesday and moves across
Tuesday night. High pressure returns for Wednesday through
Thursday, with this high pressure area shifting offshore late in
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --Minor update to temperatures and dewpoints to better reflect
current conditions. Otherwise, forecast remains on track.

A cold front is currently just to our north and will pass
through the area today before stalling just offshore through the
afternoon. Clouds will continue to increase this morning. Any
showers are passing us to our south right now, but isolated
showers will be possible as the front starts moves through the
area.

Have continued the downward trend with the PoP forecast for
this morning and afternoon. CAM model reflectivity fields look
very isolated and unimpressive. Thinking any showers will be
confined mainly to the NYC/NJ metro area and Long Island. The
greatest chance looks to be over the waters just south of Long
Island. CAPE looks minimal and elevated so thunder is not likely
and has been left out of the forecast.

A tricky temperature forecast today with a lot to consider. The
greatest uncertainty is across Long Island, which will be in
the vicinity of the stalled front and associated cloud
cover/any rain showers. There is also some uncertainty in a sea
breeze developing/how far it can travel inland given how weak
the NW-N flow behind the front will be. Trended the temperatures
down slightly across Long Island (mid 70s) and used mainly the
NBM for the rest of the area blended in with the previous
forecast (Upper 70s to low 80s).

The front finally pushes farther offshore in the evening hours and
high pressure starts to build in. Some clouds linger before becoming
mostly clear just before midnight. Northern locations will get under
mostly clear skies sooner and be able to take advantage of decent
radiational cooling conditions. Lows across interior CT and the
Lower Hudson Valley will be in the mid to upper 40s. Used the NBM
blended in with MOS guidance to try and capture the usual cool
spots. Depending on how quickly some climate sites can cool off,
record max min temperatures are possible for 5/13. See climate
section below.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure continues to build in on Sunday. It will be centered
well to our northwest over central Canada and the orientation will
keep us under a mainly northerly flow. With cooler and drier air
filtering in to the area, temperatures will be back to normal for
mid-May. After a mostly sunny start, mid and high level clouds will
increase as a shortwave passes through aloft.

Mostly clear skies are expected by Sunday night resulting in
another radiational cooling night. The interior and LI Pine
Barrens likely fall to the lower 40s, with upper 40s to mid 50s
expected elsewhere.

High pressure sinks south of the area on Monday. The dry weather
continues with temperatures a few degrees warmer than Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mid levels convey quasi-zonal flow much of the long term with
exception to Wednesday night and Friday night.

At the surface, high pressure settles offshore Monday night. A cold
front approaches from the north Tuesday and moves across Tuesday
night. No widespread rain showers are expected with this as there
will be a lack of moisture source with the incoming front. While
showers are not in the forecast, there could be a sprinkle.

High pressure returns Wednesday into Thursday, building in from the
north and west. This high pressure area moves out into the Western
Atlantic Thursday night into Friday. More return synoptic southerly
flow develops Friday into Friday night.

Chances for rain showers return to the forecast late Thursday night
through Friday night. This looks to be potentially setting up for
more of a widespread rain as synoptic lift and moisture sources will
be more available with the next frontal system approaching.

Warmest day of the extended still looks to be Tuesday as forecast
highs reach well into the 70s for many locations and even near 80
for parts of NYC and Northeast NJ. Coolest night of the extended
still looks to be Wednesday night, ranging from upper 30s to near
50. Otherwise, temperatures do not deviate much from climatological
normals for the rest of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --A cold front moves south of the region today. High pressure
builds in from the north thereafter.

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. The front as it
moves across may bring a few rain showers but visibilities are not
expected to drop much with these. Most of the rain showers are
expected to pass south of the region.

Winds become more W-NW near 5-10 kts in this aftn. Some sea
breeze development expected near KJFK, KISP and CT terminals.
All terminals expected to become more northerly near 8-10 kts
tonight into early Sunday.

Some wind gusts up to 20 kt are possible for this afternoon but
frequency of the gusts likely to be occasional.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low confidence with wind direction forecast. Sea breeze timing
could be off by a few hours and may be possible at KLGA and
KEWR. Wind directions in the TAF could be off by more than 50
degrees at times during the afternoon.

 ...OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday through Monday night: VFR. SW-W gusts near 15 kt
afternoon into evening on Monday.

Tuesday:VFR. SW-W flow 10-15G20kt.

Wednesday: VFR. NW flow 10-15G20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Air temperatures will be in the upper 70s today, with water
temperatures remaining in the 50s. A Marine Weather Statement for
Cold Water Safety was issued for today. The cold water temperatures
can quickly cause hypothermia to anyone immersed in the water.

Winds and waves are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
Criteria through the weekend under a weak pressure gradient.

Regarding extended forecast and SCA possibilities, ocean forecast to
have some lingering higher SCA level seas Monday night. More of the
waters have SCA level wind gusts Tuesday into Tuesday night,
including waters surrounding Eastern Long Island as well as the
ocean zones. Ocean zones pick up with SCA level seas in the forecast
Tuesday into Tuesday night as well. Overall, average forecast
conditions sub-SCA forecast Wednesday through Wednesday night for
all waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Maximum Low Temperatures for Saturday, May 13th
-----------------------------------------------------
Central Park........69 (1956)
LaGuardia...........67 (1956)
Kennedy.............64 (1991)
Islip...............60 (1991,1985,1975)
Newark..............68 (1985,1956)
Bridgeport..........59 (1985)

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$