discussion on 2023-05-13

000
FXUS61 KOKX 131930
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
330 PM EDT Sat May 13 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure builds in tonight through Sunday night then
shifts south of the region Monday night. A cold front then
approaches from the north Tuesday and moves through Tuesday
night. High pressure returns for midweek, with the high shifting
offshore late in the week.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --A cold front moves farther offshore this evening allowing for high
pressure to build over the region. Some clouds linger before
becoming mostly clear just before midnight tonight. Northern
locations will get under mostly clear skies sooner and be able to
take advantage of decent radiational cooling conditions. Lows across
interior locations will be in the mid to upper 40s and low to mid
50s along the coast.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure builds southward towards the area on Sunday. Expect
mostly sunny skies and a light northerly wind with dewpoints
dropping into the 40s and 50s. Temperatures will be back to normal
with highs on Sunday in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Mostly clear skies are expected Sunday night resulting in another
radiational cooling night. The interior and LI Pine Barrens likely
fall to the lower 40s, with upper 40s to mid 50s expected elsewhere.-- End Changed Discussion --

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --A relatively quiet pattern sets up next week with limited rain
chances. Closed upper low embedded in a trough over eastern Canada
will attempt to swing down into the region through the middle of the
week, with ridging building in thereafter.

Surface high pressure on Monday settles offshore into Tuesday, with
the flow backing SW in response. Meanwhile, a shortwave rotating
around the trough dives down out of Canada, sending a cold front
south through New England and toward the region on Tuesday. With
limited moisture and weak forcing, global ensembles have little if
any associated QPF from the frontal passage. While no PoPs at this
time, best chance of a frontal sprinkle or shower would be late
Tuesday into early Wednesday.

Otherwise, dry conditions expected midweek with rising heights and
surface high pressure sliding in from the Great Lakes. Moisture
increases late week as the high shifts offshore and return flow sets
up. This will allow a return of rain chances by Friday well ahead of
another potential shortwave that may impact the area into the start
of next weekend.

Temperatures will be fairly typical for mid May, with highs largely
in the 60s and 70s. The warmest day appears to be Tuesday, with the
mild SW flow and well-mixed BL ahead of the frontal boundary
allowing temperatures to climb into the 70s and lower 80s away from
the shoreline. A bit cooler air mass advects in behind the front
with northerly winds as the high builds in on Wednesday, with most
in the 60s. Temperatures look to gradually inch upward into next
weekend.

Given inherent uncertainty at this time frame, capped PoPs at low
chance (30%) for late next week. Also tapered winds a tad from NBM,
which appeared overly aggressive with speeds Tuesday into Wednesday.
Otherwise, national blended guidance was followed for this update.-- End Changed Discussion --

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pres builds in from the west thru Sun.

VFR thru the TAF period.

Winds mainly NW into this eve. Hybrid sea breeze flow has been
included for JFK thru 23Z however. Winds veer overnight to the NNE,
then become NW again aft 15Z Sun. At the south coast terminals like
JFK, BDR, and GON, there could be a brief sea breeze in the 14-18Z
Sun period, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs attm.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Ocnl gusts up to 20kt possible thru 00Z. Exact timing and
magnitude of the sea breeze flow at JFK is uncertain thru 00Z.

...OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Rest of Sunday: VFR with N/NW flow.

Monday: VFR with W flow.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, but a chance for brief MVFR in shwrs. SW winds
becoming NW.

Wednesday: VFR with NW flow.

Thursday: VFR with S flow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --Air temperatures will be in the upper 70s today and upper 60s to low
70s on Sunday, with water temperatures remaining in the 50s, have
continued the Marine Weather Statement for Cold Water Safety through
Sunday. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia to
anyone immersed in the water.

Winds and waves are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
Criteria through the weekend under a weak pressure gradient.

Increasing SW winds may allow for a period of wind gusts above 25 kt
on ocean waters late Monday, and all waters on Tuesday. Isolated
gales possible on the ocean late Tuesday. Winds subside Tuesday
night, but elevated seas 5 to 7 ft may linger on the ocean into
early Wednesday.

Conditions improve by Wednesday afternoon, with sub-SCA conds
expected thereafter into late next week.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.