000
FXUS61 KOKX 132335
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
735 PM EDT Sat May 13 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in tonight through Sunday night then
shifts south of the region Monday night. A cold front then
approaches from the north Tuesday and moves through Tuesday
night. High pressure returns for midweek, with the high shifting
offshore late in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Cold front continues to sink south through the region as of 22z.
Boundary has moved through most locales, noted by a quick drop
in dew pts over interior areas, and will continue moving farther
offshore this evening as high pressure begins to build over the
region. This will allow for clearing skies this evening.
Forecast remains on track and previous discussion follows.
Some clouds linger before becoming mostly clear just before
midnight tonight. Northern locations will get under mostly clear
skies sooner and be able to take advantage of decent
radiational cooling conditions. Lows across interior locations
will be in the mid to upper 40s and low to mid 50s along the
coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure builds southward towards the area on Sunday. Expect
mostly sunny skies and a light northerly wind with dewpoints
dropping into the 40s and 50s. Temperatures will be back to normal
with highs on Sunday in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Mostly clear skies are expected Sunday night resulting in another
radiational cooling night. The interior and LI Pine Barrens likely
fall to the lower 40s, with upper 40s to mid 50s expected elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A relatively quiet pattern sets up next week with limited rain
chances. Closed upper low embedded in a trough over eastern Canada
will attempt to swing down into the region through the middle of the
week, with ridging building in thereafter.
Surface high pressure on Monday settles offshore into Tuesday, with
the flow backing SW in response. Meanwhile, a shortwave rotating
around the trough dives down out of Canada, sending a cold front
south through New England and toward the region on Tuesday. With
limited moisture and weak forcing, global ensembles have little if
any associated QPF from the frontal passage. While no PoPs at this
time, best chance of a frontal sprinkle or shower would be late
Tuesday into early Wednesday.
Otherwise, dry conditions expected midweek with rising heights and
surface high pressure sliding in from the Great Lakes. Moisture
increases late week as the high shifts offshore and return flow sets
up. This will allow a return of rain chances by Friday well ahead of
another potential shortwave that may impact the area into the start
of next weekend.
Temperatures will be fairly typical for mid May, with highs largely
in the 60s and 70s. The warmest day appears to be Tuesday, with the
mild SW flow and well-mixed BL ahead of the frontal boundary
allowing temperatures to climb into the 70s and lower 80s away from
the shoreline. A bit cooler air mass advects in behind the front
with northerly winds as the high builds in on Wednesday, with most
in the 60s. Temperatures look to gradually inch upward into next
weekend.
Given inherent uncertainty at this time frame, capped PoPs at low
chance (30%) for late next week. Also tapered winds a tad from NBM,
which appeared overly aggressive with speeds Tuesday into Wednesday.
Otherwise, national blended guidance was followed for this update.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds in from the west through Sunday.
VFR.
NW-N winds around 10kt veer N-NE overnight before backing N-NW
near noontime on Sunday. Sea breezes anticipated for KJFK and
KEWR on Sunday, but might need to eventually add to the forecast
for KBDR and KGON.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
...OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday: VFR with SW-W gusts 20-25 in the aftn and eve.
Tuesday: VFR SW-W winds gust 20-25kt.
Wednesday: VFR with NW gusts around 25 kt.
Thursday: VFR with S flow.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Air temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s on Sunday,
and with water temperatures remaining in the 50s, have
continued the Marine Weather Statement for Cold Water Safety
through Sunday. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause
hypothermia to anyone immersed in the water.
Winds and waves are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
Criteria through the weekend under a weak pressure gradient.
Increasing SW winds may allow for a period of wind gusts above 25 kt
on ocean waters late Monday, and all waters on Tuesday. Isolated
gales possible on the ocean late Tuesday. Winds subside Tuesday
night, but elevated seas 5 to 7 ft may linger on the ocean into
early Wednesday.
Conditions improve by Wednesday afternoon, with sub-SCA conds
expected thereafter into late next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...JC