000
FXUS61 KOKX 141144
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
744 AM EDT Sun May 14 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in through tonight and shifts south of the area
on Monday. A cold front then approaches from the north Tuesday and
moves through Tuesday night. High pressure builds in from the
Great Lakes Wednesday through Wednesday night, eventually moving
offshore Thursday into Thursday night. A frontal system approaches
the region Friday and moves in for the start of next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Temperatures were running a degree or two higher than forecast
in most locations, so have adjusted to match the current trend.
Locations in the far interior have been able to take advantage
of good radiational cooling conditions. Winds have increased
slightly across the LI Pine Barrens so temperatures there are
in the upper 50s after being in the mid 40s around midnight.
Otherwise, the forecast is on track.
As a cold front departs offshore, high pressure builds in to the
area through tonight. Our area will be on the eastern side of a
large area of high pressure that will sink down from central Canada
into the central CONUS. This will keep the flow northerly through
tonight and advect in cooler, drier air. Highs will be back down to
normal for mid-May, upper 60s to lower 70s.
Aloft, a shortwave trough, swinging around an upper low over
eastern Canada, will pass overhead. Mid and upper level clouds will
increase in association with the shortwave this afternoon, but dry
conditions are expected.
Skies then quickly clear early tonight and a great radiational
cooling night sets up. Blended MOS guidance in with the NBM to get
upper 30s to lower 40s across the interior and LI Pine Barrens,
lower 50s in the NYC/NJ metro area and mid to upper 40s
elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure sinks to our south on Monday. Dry weather
continues and high temperatures bounce back up a bit to the mid
to upper 70s under a W-SW flow and sunny skies. SW flow
increases through Tuesday ahead of a cold frontal passage. Given
the warm flow, the upward trend in temperatures continues on
Tuesday. Highs will be back in the upper 70s and low 80s for the
NYC/NJ metro area.
It looks like the cold frontal passage itself will be dry for our
area as all guidance currently shows any precip along the front
dissipating to our north and west. However, there will be a surge of
moisture out ahead of the front with a mid-level shortwave passing
overhead. This may allow for some rain showers over far southern
locations. Right now the GFS is the farthest north with any QPF.
Have capped at slight chance and any showers would be light.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The local region will be near the base of a large trough in the mid
levels Wednesday. The trough will shift northward more out of the
local area Wednesday night. Mid level ridging takes place Thursday
into Thursday night before a smaller trough approaches from the west
on Friday. The trough eventually moves in for Saturday into Saturday
night.
At the surface, high pressure begins to build in from the Great
Lakes on Wednesday. Pressure gradient rather steep Wednesday into
Wednesday evening before relaxing late at night into early Thursday,
resulting in gusty NW flow, advecting in colder air. The timing of
the colder air moving in and with the weakening pressure gradient
and mostly clear sky conditions will allow for radiational cooling
to make a contribution as well Wednesday night into early Thursday
morning. Forecasting temperatures several degrees below normal
Wednesday and Wednesday night with possible frost for parts of the
interior Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.
The high pressure traverses overhead early Thursday and then shifts
offshore Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, making its way well
out into the Atlantic. This will make for winds to transition to
be lighter early Thursday and eventually return southerly flow
that will increase Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. This
will act to moderate the airmass and prevent the extra cool
temperatures values of the previous night, especially along the
coast with more maritime influence. Temperatures trend closer to
normal towards the latter part of the week.
With the trough approaching Friday, a frontal system at the surface
will be approaching as well. An area of low pressure moves in for
the start of next weekend. This will bring the next chance for
widespread rain to the area, mainly confined to a time window from
Friday night through Saturday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure gradually builds in from the west through tonight.
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
Winds will be northerly near 5 to 10 kts for much of the TAF period.
Sea breeze forecast for KJFK within the latter half of the afternoon
and into the start of the evening. Sea breezes possible at
KEWR, KBDR, KGON, and KLGA as well. Chance of sea breeze
relatively higher at KEWR so have that terminals for a tempo
early evening (22Z-00Z) for that sea breeze.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
KJFK sea breeze timing could be off by 1-2 hours. Confidence
lower on sea breeze reaching KEWR and KLGA. Possible NW wind
gusts up to 20 kt at times during the afternoon, occasional
frequency.
...OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday: VFR. Some SW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into evening.
Tuesday: VFR. SW wind gusts near 20 kt.
Wednesday: VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt mainly during the day
into evening.
Thursday: VFR during the day. Chances of MVFR at night with
possible rain showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Air temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s on Sunday, and
with water temperatures remaining in the 50s, have continued the
Marine Weather Statement for Cold Water Safety through Sunday. The
cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia to anyone
immersed in the water.
There may be a brief period of occasional NE 25 kt wind gusts this
morning on the ocean waters as high pressure builds in. Otherwise
sub-SCA criteria is expected through Monday under a weak pressure
gradient regime. Again, a brief period of 25 kt gusts is possible
Monday night. However, there is more confidence in SCA criteria in a
strengthening SW flow ahead of a cold front on Tuesday. The ocean
waters, eastern Sound and Long Island Bays likely see 25-30 kt gusts
Tuesday afternoon through the first half of Tuesday night.
Conditions are forecast to be marginal for SCA Wednesday,
potentially with wind gusts reaching 25 kt for parts of the ocean
and non-ocean waters. Ocean seas forecast still near 5 ft for
Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Otherwise, forecast has mainly
below SCA conditions Wednesday into Wednesday evening and more below
SCA for late Wednesday night through Thursday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM/JT
HYDROLOGY...JM/JT