000
FXUS61 KOKX 142200
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
600 PM EDT Sun May 14 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the west tonight, and sets up south of
the area on Monday. A cold front approaches from the north
Tuesday and moves through Tuesday night. High pressure builds in
from the Great Lakes Wednesday, before tracking offshore
Thursday. A frontal system approaches from the west late in the
week, potentially impacting the region into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A quiet night ahead as a 1032 mb high slides east from the
Great Lakes. Subtle adjustments made in the near term to account
for current observation, but forecast remains on track and
previous discussion follows.
High pres builds in from the W tngt. With the center of the high
progged to drop swd from PA into VA, the cwa will still be
susceptible to a light N wind, especially at the coasts. This will
impact temps, with otherwise skc late tngt as the last band of
clouds invof the Mass Pike drops swd thru the are this eve. As a
result, have hedged lows closer to the cooler MET and MAV, but not
gone all the way with the guidance due to the potential light winds.
If outlying areas go calm, temps will verify a little colder, with
some upr 30s possible.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Continued dry Mon and Mon ngt. The NBM has zero pops. A swly
gradient wind will develop in the aftn as a cold front slowly
approaches from Canada and high pres remains S of the region. It
will be breezy along the south coast as a result, particularly the
South Fork. Temps abv normal with highs in the 70s for almost the
entire area. A milder ngt with the SW flow continuing. Most areas
are modeled to fall into the 50s attm. The NBM with minor
adjustments was used for temps.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A relatively quiet pattern with limited rain chances until the
weekend. Closed upper low embedded in a trough over eastern Canada
will attempt to swing down into the region through the middle of the
week, with ridging building in late week. Another trough may
advance east and break down this ridging heading into the weekend.
Surface high pressure settles offshore Tuesday, with the flow
backing SW in response. The upper low over Canada pivots southward,
sending a cold front toward the region on Tuesday. At the same time,
models have trended a bit farther north with a weak shortwave
tracking through the Mid-Atlantic. With limited moisture ahead of
the front, most guidance keeps the region dry from the fropa, though
a few showers look to be possible for southern portions of the CWA
as the frontal system passes to the south. It`s also possible the
region remains entirely dry. Either way, any rainfall would be light.
Dry conditions expected midweek behind the front, with rising
heights and surface high pressure sliding in from the Great Lakes.
Pressure gradient rather steep Wednesday into Wednesday evening,
resulting in gusty NW flow advecting in cooler air. Moisture
increases late week as the high shifts offshore and return flow sets
up. This will allow a return of rain chances by late Friday ahead of
another potential front that may impact the area into the start of
next weekend. Global ensembles disagree a bit on the timing and
amplitude of the advancing trough, with the Canadian slower than the
GEFS and EPS.
Temperatures will be fairly typical for mid May, with highs largely
in the 60s and 70s. The warmest day appears to be Tuesday, with mild
SW flow and a well-mixed BL ahead of the frontal boundary allowing
temperatures to climb into the 70s and lower 80s away from the
shoreline. A bit cooler air mass advects in behind the front with
northerly winds as the high builds in on Wednesday, with most in the
60s. Clear skies and lightening flow Wed night may allow for
efficient radiational cooling into early Thursday morning. Can`t
rule out the possibility of frost with temperatures near freezing
for parts of the interior during this time. Temperatures look to
gradually inch upward through the weekend.
Given model differences and the inherent uncertainty at that this
time frame, continued to cap PoPs at low chance (30-35%) for the
coming weekend. Otherwise, national blended guidance was followed
for this update.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure gradually builds in from the west through tonight.
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
Winds will be northerly near 10 kts through Monday with some
occasional gust up to 20kt possible through this afternoon. Winds
will then shift to the W to SW Monday into Monday night with
wind gust up to 20 kt in the afternoon/evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of the wind gust Monday afternoon could be off by 1-2 hours.
...OUTLOOK FOR 20Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday: VFR. Some SW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into evening.
Tuesday: VFR. SW wind gusts near 20 kt.
Wednesday: VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt mainly during the day
into evening.
Thursday:VFR. NE wind 5-10 kt, becoming southeast to south.
Friday: VFR during the day. Chances of MVFR at night with
possible rain showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Winds and seas will remain blw sca lvls tngt as high pres builds
towards the area. SW winds will increase during the day on Mon, with
seas building on the ocean. A sca has been issued for Mon aftn and
ngt for ANZ353 and 350 for winds gusting around 25 kt and seas right
around 5 ft.
A strengthening SW flow ahead of a cold front Tuesday likely leads
to SCA conditions on the ocean waters, eastern Sound, and Long
Island Bays, with 25-30 kt gusts Tuesday afternoon through the first
half of Tuesday night. Seas on the ocean increase to 5 to 7 ft
during this time as well. NW wind gusts on Wednesday may approach 25
kt on all waters, especially early in the day. Conditions improve by
late Wednesday, with sub-SCA conds expected thereafter into late
next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for
ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...12/DR
NEAR TERM...12/DR
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...
MARINE...12/DR
HYDROLOGY...12/DR