000
FXUS61 KOKX 151801
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
201 PM EDT Mon May 15 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in and shifts south of the area today. A
cold front approaches from the north Tuesday and moves through
Tuesday night. High pressure builds in from the Great Lakes
Wednesday night, before tracking offshore Thursday. A frontal
system approaches from the west late in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to
temperatures and dew points.
Tranquil conditions continue today as high pressure settles to the
south of the area in the northwest Atlantic. A surface trough looks
to move through late today into early tonight. However, there
is little upper level support with a building ridge over the
western U.S., and an upper level trough well off the East Coast.
Therefore, dry conditions are expected with a southwesterly
gradient wind developing ahead of the trough. Warmer
temperatures are expected in response to the southwest flow.
Expect highs in the lower to middle 70s for a majority of the
area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The surface trough remains nearby or weakens overnight and
redevelops Tuesday. This will allow southwesterly flow to
continue overnight tonight and into Tuesday. Lows tonight will
be above normal, ranging from the middle 40s inland to the upper
50s across the New York City metro area and highs on Tuesday in
in the upper 70s to lower 80s with cooler conditions expected
along the shores due to local sea breezes.
A cold front approaches from the northwest late in the day
Tuesday, and despite the development of weak low pressure along
the frontal boundary, it looks like much of the area will
remain dry as the air mass will be rather dry preceding the
frontal passage.
The front pushes through Tuesday night and Canadian high
pressure builds in behind the front for Wednesday, bringing
highs down a bit below normal for this time of year; 60s region
wide.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure builds in Wednesday night as heights builds aloft
behind a departing upper level shortwave. This will result in a dry
and sunny end to the week, with slightly below average high
temperatures for mid-May. Highs Thursday and Friday will be in the
60s, with some lower 70s readings possible Friday across the Lower
Hudson Valley and northeast NJ. A couple of cold nights are also
expected. With high pressure building in Wednesday night,
radiational cooling conditions look optimal across the interior.
Lows could even touch freezing in a few locations and frost/freeze
headlines are possible. Farther south across the LI Pine Barrens
winds likely remain up just enough too keep them a bit warmer, with
lows in the mid to upper 30s. Thursday night will be another cold
night, but several degrees warmer than the previous night as a
return flow sets up as high pressure shifts offshore. Frost/freeze
concerns don`t look likely Thursday night.
A frontal system looks to impact the area this weekend. Model spread
remains quite large with timing and strength of this system. Slight
chance PoPs start Saturday per NBM and stuck with this although
latest deterministic guidance keeps the area dry through Saturday.
PoPs increase to chance on Sunday. Current NBM probability of 1 inch
of rainfall in any 24 hr period over the weekend is around 10-
15%. High temperatures Saturday and Sunday will be in the lower
70s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure along the Mid Atlantic coast retreats offshore,
while a cold front approaches from eastern Canada.
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
W/SW winds 12-15kt G20kt this afternoon with a seabreeze
enhancement at some of the coastal terminals. Gusts diminish
early this evening, but then ramp back up at 20-25kt late
Tuesday morning/early afternoon. There is greater uncertainty
with the seabreeze Tuesday afternoon due to a well-mixed airmass
and stronger/deeper westerly wind.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may be more occasional than frequent this afternoon.
Winds may be 10-20 degrees to the W of current forecast this afternoon.
...OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday Afternoon: VFR. W/SW wind gusts 20-25 kt.
Wednesday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt mainly during the daytime
hours.
Thursday and Friday: VFR.
Saturday: Chance of MVFR in showers, mainly late in the day.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SW winds will increase during the day today, with seas building
on the ocean. A SCA continues for this afternoon and tonight
for ANZ353 and 350 for winds gusting around 25 kt. Seas look to
be bit lower than previous forecast for these zones, ranging
from 2 to 4 ft.
A strengthening SW flow ahead of a cold front Tuesday likely leads
to SCA conditions on the ocean waters, eastern Sound, and Long
Island Bays, with 25-30 kt gusts Tuesday afternoon through the first
half of Tuesday night. Seas on the ocean increase to 5 to 7 ft
during this time as well. NW wind gusts on Wednesday may approach 25
kt on all waters, especially early in the day.
Winds and waves fall below Small Craft Advisory criteria Wednesday
night and then remain down most of the weekend under an overall weak
pressure gradient. A frontal system could impact the area late in
the weekend and depending on exact location and strength, SCA
criteria is possible.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Antecedent dry conditions with continued mainly dry conditions
in the forecast along with breezy conditions on Tuesday and more
so on Wednesday has prompted the issuance of a Fire Weather
Watch for inland southern Connecticut for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Minimum RH values on these days will drop to 30% or below for
these locations. Winds may fall just short of 25 mph on Tuesday,
but with a mainly dry frontal passage Tuesday night and
Canadian high pressure building into the area on Wednesday,
better chances for Red Flag conditions are expected on
Wednesday.
Coastal southern Connecticut was not included in the watch at
this time due to uncertainty in minimum RH values. The potential
development of sea breezes for both days may lead to higher
minimum RH values.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
evening for CTZ005>008.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/JT
NEAR TERM...JP/MW
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JP/JT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JP/JT