000
FXUS61 KOKX 152326
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
726 PM EDT Mon May 15 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area today slides offshore into Tuesday with
a cold front moving through Tuesday night. High pressure builds
across the region and then offshore through the end of the
week. A frontal system impacts the area over the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tweaked clouds across ern CT and LI with a batch moving thru
the area. Otherwise, the fcst is on track. Surface high pressure
over the area persists through tonight with dry conditions and
clear skies expected. Lows will generally in the 50s with middle
and upper 50s for the coast, NYC, and Long Island. Some spots
for the interior may briefly radiationally cool into the upper
40s if the light wind tonight goes calm locally.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level NW flow will allow for a disturbance north of the area
to begin to approach the area by Tuesday. Another weak wave in the
flow positioned to our west is expected to pass by south of the area
by the afternoon. With high pressure to the south during the day, a
WSW wind will allow for temperatures to rise into the upper 70s to
low 80s for much of the area, including areas along the coast, prior
to any seabreeze influences in the afternoon.
The pressure gradient is expected to tighten over the area and may
result in some gust upwards of 20 to 25 mph. This combined with low
dew points and dry conditions will result in an elevated chance of
fire spread, despite the recent green-up over the area.
Cloud cover is expected to increase into the afternoon along with an
increase in moisture. This may result in the low chance of an
isolated shower along the coast and for interior eastern CT
overnight Tuesday and into early wednesday morning as the cold front
interacts with the weak wave passing by to the south. Most of the
area should remain dry. Lows tuesday night will be in the upper 40s
to middle 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry wx thru Fri as high pres builds over then east of the cwa.
Wed night could see some 30s as the high is progged to build
right over the area allowing for lgt winds in a dry airmass.
There could be some patchy frost if the high timing works out as
currently fcst. For now, the NBM was followed for temps which
yields lows in the 40s with a few mid to upr 30s for the
interior and outlying areas. Otherwise, fair wx days Wed-Fri
with highs generally in the 60s per the NBM.
A cold front is modeled to come thru right in the middle of the
weekend. There are some timing and intensity issues to be worked out
at this stage, so NBM pops were used and the fcst therefore limits
probs to the chance category. There is a potent upr low progged to
be forcing the sys, and some moisture transport from the Atlc, so at
least some rain is expected with the sys attm. Timing right now is
late Sat into Sun, but this could change as we draw closer to the
event.
Increasing humidity on Sat with the onshore flow, but for most areas
temps will be limited due to this broad sly flow. Warmest spots
along and west of the Hudson. Due to modeling uncertainties, the NBM
approach was still used for Sun, but temps may need adjusting
depending on the timing of the rain. Too far out to make any
adjustments now.
A 1020s to around 1030 high builds near Quebec on Mon, so a dry fcst
for the cwa along with seasonal temps fcst attm.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure along the Mid Atlantic coast retreats offshore
tonight into Tuesday. Meanwhile, a cold front approaches from
eastern Canada and moves through the terminals Tuesday evening.
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
Westerly winds tonight, with any continuing gusts ending early,
will back to the WSW Tuesday with gusts developing around
midday, 16Z. There is greater uncertainty with the seabreeze
Tuesday afternoon due to a well-mixed airmass and
stronger/deeper westerly wind. Winds likely remain SW during the
afternoon, and gusts may be occasionally 25-30kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
...OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday night: VFR. W/SW wind gusts 20-25 kt ending early. Winds
shift to NW late evening with cold front passage.
Wednesday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt mainly during the daytime
hours.
Thursday and Friday: VFR.
Saturday: Chance of MVFR in showers, mainly late in the day.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SW winds will persist tonight with seas building on the ocean. A SCA
continues tonight the central and eastern ocean zones for marginal
wind gusts and seas building to close to 5 ft. There will likely be
a time overnight tonight and during the morning on Tuesday where
there will be sub-SCA conditions for all waters but extended the SCA
through tomorrow night due to SCA conditions expected again for
Tuesday afternoon. Gust 25-30kt are expected for the ocean, as well
as the Great South Bay, Gardiners and Peconic Bays, and the Eastern
LIS Tuesday afternoon into the evening so an SCA is in effect. Winds
should diminish by evening, but waves may remain elevated for the
eastern and central ocean zones.
SCA cond may linger on Wed mrng, mainly on the ocean, then all
waters blw SCA lvls by late Wed, continuing thru Fri. Winds and
waves build on Sat ahead of a frontal sys, with a SCA possible
especially on the ocean. SCA cond possible for Sun with the fropa,
particularly on the ocean with seas modeled up to 7ft.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Antecedent dry conditions with continued mainly dry conditions in
the forecast along with breezy conditions on Tuesday and more so on
Wednesday has prompted the issuance of a Fire Weather Watch for
inland southern Connecticut for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Minimum RH values on these days will drop to 30% or below for these
locations. Winds may fall just short of 25 mph on Tuesday, but with
a mainly dry frontal passage Tuesday night and Canadian high
pressure building into the area on Wednesday, better chances for Red
Flag conditions are expected on Wednesday.
Included coastal southern Connecticut in the watch despite potential
marginal conditions due to the seabreeze possibly leading to higher
minimum RH values.
Elsewhere, an SPS is in effect for dry conditions and the
elevated potential for fire spread.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected Wed thru Fri. Any hydrologic
impacts over the weekend will be dependent on the intensity and
placement of any rain that develops. Right now, widespread or
significant impacts are not expected.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ332-
340-345-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MW
NEAR TERM...12/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...12/MW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...12/MW