000
FXUS61 KOKX 161951
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
351 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front approaches this evening and passes through the area
during the early morning hours Wednesday. High pressure then
builds in from the northwest through midweek, before building
offshore Thursday afternoon through Friday. A frontal system
impacts the area Saturday. High pressure begins to build Sunday
and remains in play Monday and Tuesday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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An amplifying upper trough across eastern Canada and the
Northeast will send a cold front across the area later tonight
with a shot of much cooler air to follow for the mid week
period. Gusty SW winds up to 25 mph early will diminish this
evening, then become NW following a cold frontal passage after
midnight. This will be a dry frontal passage as this system is
moisture starved as a frontal wave passes to the south off the
Mid Atlantic coast.

The cold advection behind the front occurs late enough that lows
will only drop to near normal, ranging from the upper 40s
inland, to the lower and mid 50s along the coast.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Following a cold frontal passage, high pressure over the Great
Lakes will build south and east through Wednesday night. A gusty
NW flow on Wednesday (up to 25 mph) will combine with a very dry
airmass (Min RH around 20 percent) to produce an elevated risk
of fire spread. See Fire Weather section below for additional
details.

Highs Wednesday will be a few degrees below normal with readings
in the 60s.

A much colder night on Wednesday night along with diminishing
N winds will allow temperatures to drop into the lower and
middles 30s inland and across the Pine Barrens Region of LI,
with the 40s elsewhere. There is enough uncertainty with how
quickly the winds fall off and the low RH to hold off on any
frost/freeze headlines at this time. For lows, used a blend of
the colder MET/MAV MOS with the warmer NBM.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure takes over on Thursday leading to clear skies and no
POPs. Highs remain similar to Wednesday with dewpoints still on the
dry side. Thursday night the high pressure shifts shore, returning a
5-10 kt southerly flow. This will prevent some radiational cooling
and raise dewpoints. The warm air advection really takes hold as max
temps increase from low/mid-60s on Thursday to mid-60s/low-70s
on Friday. Used mainly NBM for this as it picked up on the
effects of the southerly flow well. High pressure continues to
lose influence into the day on Friday, with slight lowering of
heights. This will be complimented by increasing clouds on
Friday.

This weekend will be largely influenced by a frontal system that
still has some timing discrepancies associated with it. The 12Z
GFS has rain starting early in the morning while the 12Z ECMWF
has rain starting by the afternoon. The frontal system will be
influenced by an upper-low helping to force the system while
moisture is also being fed in ahead of the front up from a
disturbance off the Atlantic coast with southerly winds. Went
with NBM POPs which keeps a chance of rain through Saturday and
drops POPs for Sunday. This timing is a little earlier than the
prior forecast and is still subject to adjustments.

Late Sunday into next week a surface high sets up over Quebec and
Nova Scotia with an associated inverted surface ridge, that extends
down the coast into our area. This will lead to pressure height
increases to begin next week allowing for dry weather to return with
seasonal temperatures.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR. A cold front approaches and moves through the terminals
this evening.

SW winds with isolated gusts of 20-25kts possible. Gusts should
then diminish around sunset 23Z-01Z and then shift to the W and
NW with sustained winds of around 10-15kts through the
overnight. Gusts of 20-25 kt then return after 08Z tonight,
just before and after the cold frontal passage as winds shift
more to the N.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected. Isolated gusts of 25 to 30 kt
possible this afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday: VFR. NW wind 15 to 20 kt.

Thursday and Friday: VFR.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR in showers, mainly late in the day.

Sunday: Chance MVFR in early showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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A SCA remains up for all ocean waters, eastern sound east of the
CT River, and the bays of LI to start, However, winds will
diminish this evening as a cold front approaches from the NW.
These hazards will drop from west to east tonight, with the two
easternmost zones dropping last shortly after midnight. Behind
the cold front late tonight, there is the possibility of short
period of gusts up to 25 kt. Thus, have held off issuing a SCA
behind the cold front. High pressure then builds in from the NW
with sub-SCA conditions to follow for the mid week.

Conditions will remain below SCA through Friday night. Waves on
the ocean water build in response to a strengthening S to SE
flow, with 5 ft seas possible by late morning Saturday into the
afternoon. Waves diminish late Saturday night into Sunday
afternoon. Conditions will be below SCA on Monday.
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for CT through early this
evening, with a Fire Weather Watch in effect for Wednesday.

For northeast NJ, NYC, Long Island and the Lower Hudson Valley
an SPS is in effect through Wednesday.

Given antecedent dry conditions along with Min RH values as low
as 20 percent and a gusty flow at 20-25 kt, there is an
elevated potential for fire spread through Wednesday.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ332-
     340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ355.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BR/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...BR/DW
FIRE WEATHER...DW
HYDROLOGY...BR/DW