000
FXUS61 KOKX 171140
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
740 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds for mid week, then moves offshore Thursday
night into Friday. A frontal system impacts the area over the
weekend. High pressure builds in for the beginning of next week
and remains in place through the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
For this update adjusted winds / gusts up a touch for the next 4
to 5 hours or so as latest obs warranted this adjustment with
some gusts approaching 30 mph. The forecast remains on track.
High pressure builds today out of the northwest. A noticeably cooler
and drier airmass takes control with a much different feel. The
airmass will be unseasonably dry for this time of year. This will
allow for a couple of pleasant spring days, but with rather chilly
evening and night conditions.
For today on a NW flow dew point reading will drop well down into
the 20s. See Fire Wx. section for more on the dry conditions. The
winds should gusts to 20 to 25 mph as times. Did not feel
comfortable doing with NBM with temps and dew points due to the
anomalous nature of the dry air mass, thus went with a MAV / MET
blend for today and tonight. Temperatures today will range mainly in
the lower and middle 60s. A good 10 to 15 degrees cooler than
yesterday despite plenty of sunshine. A potent upper level
disturbance will slide by to the north early today, and usually you
would get some strato-cu with the trajectory of this upper
level feature. However, with the airmass so dry it will be hard
pressed to produce much if anything in the way of clouds. Thus a
sunny day is in order.
For tonight clear skies and diminishing winds will result in
temperatures dropping quickly towards and after sunset. This winds
may stay up for the first couple of hours of this evening, but then
should drop of quickly resulting in strong radiational
conditions developing towards and after midnight. Progs have
portions of Orange County get down to about 32-33 degrees. With
the susceptibility of plants to these type of temperatures
thought it prudent to go with a freeze watch for Orange County.
Northern New London also gets close, but freezing temps seem a
little more unlikely for much of the zones across Interior So.
CT. Thus at this time just a freeze watch for Orange County, NY
into early Thu morning. Most lows will range from 35 to 40, with
middle 40s across much of the NYC / NE NJ metro, along with
some pockets of the aforementioned lower 30s for Orange County,
NY.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The high will be over the area Thursday morning. After a rather
chilly start temps start to moderate just a little. Expect more
sunshine with synoptic scale sinking motion in place. As the high
builds further east look for a southerly flow to get going. This
will keep eastern areas cooler into the afternoon. Highs should
range from the upper 60s inland to the west, with mainly upper 50s
and lower 60s for eastern coastal locations. The southerly flow will
continue, albeit a bit lighter for Thursday night. With mainly
clear skies it will be another chilly night, just not quite as
chilly as Wed. night. Lows will range mainly in the 40s, with
some lower 50s in the NYC / NE NJ metro.
During Friday looks for a few more clouds, but skies should still
average out to be mostly to partly sunny. More clouds attempt to
move up from the south late in the day but the daytime should remain
dry. With a deeper return flow as the high gets well offshore look
for temperatures to reach around 70 inland to the west, with mostly
lower and middle 60s elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure slides off the Northeast coast Friday night pushes
slowly eastward. through Friday. This will allow a cold front to
slowly approach from the west. In addition, a surface trough will
move toward the region. Much of the night should remain dry however,
with only a slight chance for showers expected, mainly after
midnight. Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal for this
time of year as southeasterly flow sets up and skies become mostly
cloudy. Lows are expected to range from the upper 40s to lower 50s
away from the coast, to the middle and upper 50s along the coast and
into the New York City metro area.
A surface trough and cold front is expected to affect the area over
the weekend. There are some timing and intensity issues to be worked
out at this stage, especially associated with the surface trough
that moves in from the south. This feature could directly impact the
forecast area with a period of moderate to briefly heavy rainfall as
advertised in the ECMWF and Canadian models, or may just affect
eastern areas as per the GFS. In fact, much of any precipitation
will be associated with this feature, as the cold front that passes
through afterwards looks to move through mainly dry or with very.
little precipitation. Regardless, NBM pops were generally used given
uncertainty.
Canadian high pressure builds in late Sunday night and provides dry
weather and seasonable temperatures through the middle of next week
as the high settles over the region.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR through the TAF period.
High pressure builds in from the northwest today.
W to NW winds to 15 to 20 kt sustained for most metro
terminals, with gusts 25 to 30 kt. Sustained winds then shift
to the NW to N and increase somewhat this afternoon with gusts
25 to 30 kt continuing. Gusts may actually slightly diminish in
the afternoon. As winds and gusts diminish later in the
afternoon and evening, winds shift back to N and then NE. Some
outlying terminals may become light and variable late tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected. Peak gusts 25 to 30 kt.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday and Friday: VFR.
Saturday: Chance of MVFR in showers, mainly late in the day.
Sunday: Chance MVFR in early showers, then VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Small craft advisories will be in effect through today for NY Harbor
and the ocean waters with gusts to 25 kt. High pressure will settle
over the waters into tonight and Thursday. This will decrease the
pressure gradient and thus the winds. The high then moves east and a
return flow primarily out of the south begins Thursday night and
continues into Friday. Some gusts will likely approach 20 kts out on
the western ocean and some of the near shore waters Friday
afternoon, but at this time it appears that conditions fall short of
small craft with respect to winds and seas.
Conditions will remain below SCA through Friday night. Waves on the
ocean water build in response to a strengthening S to SE flow, with
5 ft seas possible by Saturday morning into the afternoon. Waves
diminish late Saturday night into Sunday afternoon. Conditions
fall below SCA Sunday night.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Continuing with the Red Flag Warning for CT zones today with min RH
values in the 20s, antecedent dry conditions and a anomalous
dry airmass in place for this time of year. NW winds via strong
mixing, especially during the first half off the day will result
in NW winds gusting 20 to 25 kt at times. Special Weather
Statements are in effect for NY and NJ zones after coordination
with state fire weather partners. Thus continuing with the
elevated potential for fire spread today.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns at this time through early
next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
The following are record temperatures for Thursday May 18th.
Currently the forecast reflects that records will be reached at some
of our climate sites with respect to the minimum temperatures.
Record Minimum Temperatures for Thursday May 18th
-------------------------------------------------
Central Park........41 (1973)
LaGuardia...........44 (2002,1973)
Kennedy.............42 (2003,1973)
Islip...............38 (2003,1973)
Newark..............43 (2003,1983,1955)
Bridgeport..........41 (1984,1983)
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The OKX radar is currently down. The radar is expected to return
to service some time later this week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for
NYZ067.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ338-
350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/JP
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JE/JP
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JE/JP
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...