000
FXUS61 KOKX 181345
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
945 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure settles over the area today before moving offshore
tonight into Friday. Weak low pressure affects the area Saturday
into Saturday night. A cold front moves through Sunday into
Sunday night. High pressure builds in for the beginning of next
week and remains in place through the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to the
temperatures and dew points to account for the current
observations and trends through the day.
After a rather chilly start to the day, temperatures rebounded
quickly to the 50s as high pressure moves overhead. Expect
plenty of sunshine today with synoptic scale sinking motion in
place. As the high builds further east for later this afternoon,
look for a SE-S flow to get going. This will keep eastern areas
cooler into the afternoon. Highs should range from primarily the
middle 60s inland to the west, with mainly lower 60s and a few
upper 50s for coastal locations. The southerly flow continues
tonight and with mainly clear skies it will be another chilly
night, just not quite as chilly as this past night. Lows will
range mainly in the lower and middle 40s, with some lower 50s in
the NYC metro as this unseasonably dry air mass moderates.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
During Friday looks for a few more clouds, but skies should still
average out to be mostly to partly sunny. More clouds attempt to
move up from the south late in the day but the daytime should remain
dry. With a deeper return flow as the high gets well offshore look
for temperatures to reach around 70 inland to the west, with mostly
lower and middle 60s elsewhere.
For Friday night moisture begins to move up along the coast, mainly
after midnight. At the same time a cold front transverses the Ohio
Valley. With the area under a return flow mainly out of the south
look for increasing lower level moisture and clouds as per the NAM
and HRWFV3 fx soundings. Towards and after 6z Sat bring in chance
PoPs from south to north across the area. This may be a little fast,
but did not want to totally discount the GFS based solution(s) at
this point.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper trough tracking across the Great Lakes Friday and into the
Northeast on Saturday will send a cold front toward the region. At
the same time, a frontal wave forming along an old coastal front
along the southeast coast on Friday, will track north along the
eastern seaboard ahead of the digging upper trough. Model
differences hinge on how quickly the upper trough closes off. The
GFS is the most progressive and quickest of the global models,
sending the front through much of the area by midnight Saturday. The
Canadian and ECMWF are closer to a frontal passage around daybreak.
This will also impact how far west the axis of heaviest rainfall
tracks with the frontal wave preceding the cold front on Saturday.
The GFS has shifted more west with the frontal wave, more in line
with the ECMWF and Canadian. Right now, staying fairly close to the
NBM/WPC QPF, the heaviest rains look to be across far eastern LI and
SE CT on Saturday, dropping off quickly to the west due to a sharp
gradient. Capped POPs at likely right now. Although there is high
confidence that it will rain Saturday into Saturday night, there
still remain uncertainty in when and where. There will likely be
some west/east shift of this axis over the next couple of days.
Rainfall amounts currently range from a half inch far west suburbs,
to around an inch and a third far east sections.
Following the cold frontal passage, the rain should come to an end
for most areas by daybreak Sunday, except for some lingering showers
in the morning, mainly for eastern areas. Once gain though, this
will depend on any timing changes with the upper trough/closed low.
In addition, there is marginal instability with warm, moist air
being pulled up ahead of the coastal low in a S/SE flow. Thus, there
is low chance for convection, but confidence was not high enough to
put thunder in the forecast.
Thereafter, strong high pressure builds in from the west through
the middle of next week with dry, nearly seasonable weather.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure builds over the area tonight and slides east today
afternoon through tonight.
VFR.
NE winds will shift to the E and then SE before sea breezes
develop early this afternoon, shifting winds to the S. Winds at
a few locations may even briefly become light and variable
before the sea breeze develops. Moderate confidence with the
timing of the sea breezes. Winds remain southerly through this
evening, but diminish to less than 10 kt by around sunset. Some
outlying terminals may once again become light and variable this
evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Moderate confidence with the timing of sea breezes moving through
the terminals into the afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday: Mainly VFR. MVFR ceilings possible for KSWF early
Friday morning
Saturday: Chance of MVFR or lower in rain/showers
Sunday: Chance MVFR/showers early, then VFR.
Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure settles over the waters today. This yields a light
pressure gradient, at least initially. The high then moves east and
a return flow primarily out of the south begins late today and
continues into tonight and Friday. Some gusts will likely approach
20 kts out on the western ocean and some of the near shore waters
Friday afternoon and early evening, but at this time it appears that
conditions fall short of small craft with respect to winds and seas.
For Friday night a prevailing SE wind should result in marginal
small craft gusts at times.
Waves on the ocean water build in response to a strengthening S to
SE flow ahead of coastal low, with 4-7 ft seas possible by late
Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. Waves diminish late
Saturday night into Sunday afternoon. Conditions fall below SCA
Sunday night. High pressure builds in from the NW early next week
with sub-SCA conditions.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period.
&&
.CLIMATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
The following are record low temperatures for today, May 18th.
New records have been recorded for JFK, BDR, and ISP. Please see
the Record Event Reports (RER) for further details.
Record Minimum Temperatures for Today, May 18th
-------------------------------------------------
Central Park........41 (1973)
LaGuardia...........44 (2002,1973)
Kennedy.............42 (2003,1973)
Islip...............38 (2003,1973)
Newark..............43 (2003,1983,1955)
Bridgeport..........41 (1984,1983)-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/JP
NEAR TERM...JE/MW
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...IRD/JP
MARINE...JE/JP
HYDROLOGY...JE/JP
CLIMATE...