000
FXUS61 KOKX 211131
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
731 AM EDT Sun May 21 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in today through Monday, and remains
across the northeast Tuesday. The high retreats Tuesday night,
followed by a cold front that moves through late Wednesday into
early Thursday. High pressure centered to the west of the area
should be in control through most of Friday. An upper level low
may stall nearby for the start of the upcoming holiday weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The cold front was east of the region and extended southward
to off the New Jersey coast. There were still a few showers over
the ocean waters. Low pressure moves across eastern Canada and
another cold front with the low will move south and weaken.
Meanwhile surface high pressure will be building toward the area
with clearing conditions. Temperatures return to near seasonal
levels.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak upper cyclonic flow will continue tonight through Tuesday
with near zonal flow developing as a large scale upper low
remains across eastern Canada. The weakening cold front will
become nearly stationary north of the region Monday as with weak
upper lift a few showers or sprinkles will be possible Monday
afternoon across the inland higher terrain. Then high pressure
remains into Tuesday. Temperatures will remain near seasonal
normals tonight through Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure begins to retreat Tuesday night with an spoke of
upper level energy diving SE out of Canada. This upper level
energy has trended a bit more robust over the past few model
runs. Much of Wed should be dry with the introduction of a
slight chance of showers /t- showers across NW interior sections
late in the day and evening as the cold front draws closer.
With height falls centering north of the area and the cold front
now appearing to hold together enough that thought it prudent
to have slight chance of thunder for far NW sections, otherwise
shower chance should work into Wed night for the entire area.
Temperatures will average close to normal Tuesday night into
Wednesday.
Behind the cold front look for dry conditions for Thursday and
somewhat cooler conditions as temperatures drop a touch below
normal as highs may not get out of the upper 60s with dewpoint
readings in the 30s and lower 40s. Look for seasonably cool
conditions Thu night and near normal temperatures into Friday.
The big question then becomes how much organization will an
upper level low undergo late Friday and into at least the first
half of the Memorial Day weekend. The upper level energy that
swings north of the area Wed night is now being progged to leave
a significant piece of its energy behind, with what appears to
be a hint of discontinuous retrogression for late Thu into
Friday. A closed low looks to form now on much of the global
deterministic guidance with this feature appearing washed out a
bit in the ensemble means. The new ECMWF reforms and
consolidates upper level energy centered over OH and PA Sat and
Sat night. This leads to low pressure and offshore moisture
being drawn in from the SE and E at some point during the
holiday weekend from the ECMWF, and a bit later out in time from
the CMC GEM. It may work out that this offshore moisture does
not get tapped, depending on how the upper level low forms and
manifest itself. In the meantime strayed form consensus guidance
a bit and added more cloud cover and added slight chance PoPs
for the start of the weekend. For now temps should average near
normal, but day time temps could be lowered in the upcoming days
if more extensive cloud cover and higher precip chances look to
be realized.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front moves further offshore this morning with high pressure
off to the west taking control.
VFR conditions.
The winds will be NW at 10-13kt with G15-20kt throughout today.
There is a low chance of a late day seabreeze with the passage of a
surface trough. The winds will lighten to or under 5 kt out of the
north and north-northwest late this evening. The winds become more N
and NE towards Monday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low chance of a late day seabreeze at KJFK.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday through Thursday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Air temperatures will be rising into the lower and mid 70s
across the land, with water temperatures remaining in the mid
to upper 50s. Boaters venturing out should exercise cold water
safety, and a marine weather statement has been issued.
Otherwise, ocean seas will remain at SCA levels today, and
gradually subside tonight as a northerly flow weakens with
building high pressure. A SCA for the ocean waters remains in
effect until 400 AM EDT Monday.
With high pressure in control Monday and Tuesday winds and seas
will remain below advisory levels across all the forecast
waters.
Sub small craft conditions are anticipated with ocean seas
running at 3 to 4 ft much of the time through mid week. High
pressure to the north is expected to result in a relatively weak
pressure gradient for the first half of next week with only a
residual east to northeast wind much of the time.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected today through Saturday with
another period of dry weather taking place.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JE/MET
HYDROLOGY...JE/MET