discussion on 2023-05-21

000
FXUS61 KOKX 211931
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
331 PM EDT Sun May 21 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure builds in through Monday, and remains across the
northeast Tuesday. The high retreats Tuesday night, followed by
a cold front that moves through during Wednesday afternoon into
evening. High pressure returns for Thursday, then low pressure
from the south may impact the weather by late Friday through the
upcoming weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure building over the region tonight will result in
relatively light winds and mostly clear skies. Lows tonight will
fall into the 50s to near 60 across much of the area. A few of the
usually cooler spots should see some temperatures in the upper 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure continues to build north of the region through the
short term. A weak cold front will become nearly stationary
north of the area on Monday. Some weak lift along the front may
result in some showers, mainly across the Lower Hudson Valley
during the afternoon and evening hours. Drier conditions return
for Monday night. Highs on Monday will climb into the upper 60s
and lower 70s, with lows Monday night falling into the 40s and
50s. A MAV/MET blend was used for temperatures.-- End Changed Discussion --

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure will be in control on Tuesday with dry weather and
high temperatures a few degrees below normal. A cold front then
approaches on Wednesday, passing through during the afternoon into
evening hours. Models still showing some rainfall with its passage
occurring mainly north and west of the city, and PoPs have been
capped at chance for now.

The 500mb low associated with the cold front is then progged to
retrograde from the Northeast to the Eastern Great Lakes Region
Thursday into Friday with increasing uncertainty as to where it
tracks thereafter into this weekend. Its eventual position will be
part of the puzzle regarding where a potential low pressure system
developing off the Southeast coast tracks. For now, followed closely
to NBM PoPs Friday night through Sunday night, bringing a chance of
rain through the entire period. Regardless of where the low from the
south eventually tracks, the presence of cyclonic flow aloft would
present at least a diurnal threat of showers. Also followed NBM
closely for high temperatures during this period, which might be
able to be adjusted upward if it appears that impacts from the
coastal low won`t be as much as they could potentially be.-- End Changed Discussion --

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure builds across the area through Monday.

VFR conditions.

NW winds at 10-13kt with G15-20kt throughout this afternoon.
Winds will then lighten to less than 10 kt out of the north and
north-northwest late this evening. The winds become more east-
northeast Monday at around 10-12kt.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low chance of a late day seabreeze at KJFK.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday through Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --With air temperatures in the lower 70s across the land, with water
temperatures remaining in the mid to upper 50s. Boaters venturing
out should exercise cold water safety, and a marine weather
statement has been issued through this evening.

Ocean seas will remain at SCA levels through at least midnight,
before falling below 5 ft after midnight as a northerly flow weakens
with high pressure building north of the area. A SCA for the ocean
waters remains in effect until 600 AM EDT Monday.

Winds and seas will then remain below advisory levels across all the
forecast waters Monday and Monday night.

Sub-advisory conditions will continue into Tuesday and Wednesday,
then with a cold front moving through, there could be some gusts up
to 25 kt during Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, mainly
on the ocean waters. Seas otherwise should remain below 5 ft through
this period. The pressure gradient and winds then weaken Thursday
afternoon, with sub-advisory conditions continuing on all waters
through at least the daytime on Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --No hydrologic impacts expected through Friday. There`s too much
uncertainty surrounding the rain potential for the upcoming weekend
to have much of any confidence regarding potential hydrologic
impacts at this time.-- End Changed Discussion --

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC