000
FXUS61 KOKX 221949
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
349 PM EDT Mon May 22 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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A nearly stationary backdoor cold front over the area will dissipate
this evening. High pressure will be in control tonight through
Tuesday night. A cold front approaching from the north
Wednesday will move across Wednesday night. High pressure
settles across the area thereafter going into the holiday
weekend but low pressure could come near the area from the south
towards the conclusion of the holiday weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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A nearly stationary backdoor cold over the area will dissipate this
evening. A few showers may develop this evening along the front,
however any storms that develop will be short lived. Any showers
activity will quickly come to an end around sunset.
High pressure will then remain in control for the rest of the night.
A light easterly flow keep conditions cool, with lows falling into
the upper 40s and 50s. Latest 12z soundings are showing some cloud
cover overnight from some residual moisture around 5kft. So,
expecting mostly cloudy night. If cloud cover is less than expected,
the low temperatures overnight may have to be lowered a few degrees.
Stuck close to the MAV/MET guidance.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure will remain in control through the short term period.
This high will provide the region with a continued light east
flow keeping temperatures below seasonal normals. Highs on
Tuesday will be in the 60s and lower 70s, with lows Tuesday
night falling into the 40s and 50s. The Long Island Pine Barrens
may see temperatures fall into the upper 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Looking at the upper levels, jet streak extends across Central to
Northern New England and into Canadian Maritimes Wednesday into
Friday. Jet structure gets more split Friday night into the holiday
weekend. with the local area in between a trough well northeast of
the region and an upper level low across the Southeast US. Mid
levels exhibit a similar evolution and pattern over this same time
period.
At the surface, a cold front approaches from the north on Wednesday.
This will bring a chance for showers and a slight chance for
thunderstorms for parts of the interior where best moisture
convergence and relative higher low level instability develops.
Chances for showers diminish Wednesday night. Not much of a moisture
resource with this front, so expecting rain amounts overall to stay
light.
Dry conditions are then forecast for the rest of Wednesday night and
through Friday night as high pressure settles into the area from the
Great Lakes. The high pressure area weakens thereafter but its
center will be passing close to the local area. Expecting mainly dry
conditions to continue with low pressure suppressed farther south of
the region to start the upcoming weekend.
Overall, trends from Canadian and ECMWF comparing last two model
runs, convey rainfall farther south of the area with the 12Z runs
compared to the 00Z runs. This trend looks to continue into Sunday
and Monday as well but did not want to significantly change the
forecast too much and allow for run to run uncertainty.
So, the POPs increase latter half of the holiday weekend, Sunday
into Monday timeframe as high pressure continues to weaken and low
pressure starts to approach from the south. POPs are not too high,
around 25 to 30 percent for Sunday into Sunday night and close to 20
percent for next Monday for rain showers.
Forecast highs are mainly in the 70s Wednesday, and the holiday
weekend but more in the mid to upper 60s for Thursday and
Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A backdoor cold front stalls nearby into the evening before
dissipating tonight. High pressure builds across the terminals late
tonight into Tuesday.
Conditions should remain VFR through the TAF period. There is a low
chance for MVFR ceilings early Tuesday morning. Confidence is not
high enough to include in the TAF at this time. There is also a
chance for isolated showers for Lower Hudson Valley terminals,
mainly KSWF, late afternoon and early evening.
NE winds become ESE-SE this afternoon 10-13 kt. Winds weaken this
evening into tonight and back to the E and NE. Outlying terminals
should go light and variable. An E-SE wind develops Tuesday morning,
becoming SE in the afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low chance of MVFR ceilings late tonight into early Tuesday morning.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday PM: VFR
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers afternoon and evening.
N wind G15-20 kt at night.
Thursday-Friday: VFR. N wind G20-25 kt on Thursday.
Saturday: Chance of showers and MVFR. NE wind G15-20 kt possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Conditions will remain below SCA levels through Tuesday night with
high pressure centered north of the region.
Conditions forecast to remain below SCA thresholds on all waters
Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Then, SCA wind gust conditions
forecast to develop on the ocean and some of the non-ocean waters
surrounding Long Island late Wednesday night into Thursday. Some 5
ft ocean seas are forecast to develop Thursday as well.
For Thursday night through Saturday night, conditions once again are
forecast to remain below SCA thresholds for wind gusts. However,
forecast indicates ocean zones could retain some 5 ft seas to start
out Thursday night as well as higher seas near 5 ft developing on
the ocean Saturday into Saturday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JM
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BC/JM
HYDROLOGY...BC/JM