000
FXUS61 KOKX 251957
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
357 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure sprawls out over the area through the weekend and
into early next week. A backdoor cold front residing just north
and northeast of the area may move through late Monday or early
Tuesday, otherwise high pressure will remain in control.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A deep closed upper low will remain fairly stationary over
northern New England into tonight, gradually starting a weakening
process. This will anchor troughing across the NE US, with its
associated trough axis approaching the area this evening and moving
overhead tonight.
A weak sea breeze is expected to develop later this afternoon into
the evening only for the eastern end of Long Island as a northerly
synoptic flow works against it developing further.
This evening into tonight mostly clear to clear skies will persist
as high pressure slowly starts to build into the area. Only light
northerly flow is expected tonight as the pressure gradient between
offshore low and high pressure to our northwest weakens.
Stronger radiational cooling will result for interior locations and
and the LI Pine Barrens. Used MOS guidance in the forecast to
account for these conditions. Given light winds and and low dewpoint
depressions, patchy frost is expected in the LI Pine Barrens and the
northern tier of the Lower Hudson Valley. Temperatures will not be
cool enough to issue a Frost Advisory, with the lowest overnight
lows expected to be in the upper-30s. Mid-50s are expected in the
NYC metro with low-50s/mid-40s elsewhere.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Continental omega blocking appears to transition to rex blocking
by Friday night with the New England closed upper low
gradually shearing NE thru the Canadian Maritimes during this
timeframe.
Canadian high pressure will build on Friday leading tranquil
and gradually moderating conditions. Skies remain sunny due to the
influence of high pressure. Temperatures will warm into the low-70s.
A light northerly flow will remain in place for Friday, with a
sea breeze expected to develop on Long Island and Connecticut due to
less resistance from the northerly flow and a stronger sea to land
surface temperature gradient.
More radiational cooling is expected Friday night with the coolest
spots in the interior and LI Pine Barrens dropping as low as 39-42
degrees.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A high pressure ridge centered over the Great Lakes will remain in
control through the long term. Through the weekend a closed low is
progged to remain well south of the area, and will have no impacts
or sensible wx changes to the region. The low looks to perhaps only
have some high clouds with it from time to time this far north,
perhaps more so later Sun and into Memorial Day. Otherwise a good to
fair amount of sunshine is expected through the holiday weekend with
seasonable temperatures. During the holiday on Monday temperatures
start to inch a few degrees above normal, especially away from the
coast.
The main question in the long term in the behavior of a cold front
late Monday and into the first half of Tuesday. There is a very good
chance that this front based on the seasonal climatology with the
placement of high pressure along and just off the NE coast will
result in a backdoor frontal passage. Followed the NBM closely with
minor adjustments with regard to temps. At this time have temps
lowering into Tuesday by a good 5 to 8 degrees, and this may be a
bit underdone. Otherwise look for a slight retrogression of the mean
ridge position based on global guidance consensus for the middle and
latter part of next week. This should have the area under the
eastern influence of large scale ridging. There is some hints that
disturbance(s) may come through in NW flow late in the week, but
uncertainty remains quite high. Therefore look for the prolonged
stretch of dry weather to continue. Temps towards Wednesday suggest
near normal temperatures, except for inland sections where daytime
temperatures may average several degrees above normal. All sections
are expected to be above, if not well above normal with temperatures
towards Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR. High pressure builds in from the Great Lakes region through
Friday.
NNW-N winds 10-15 kt into the evening and diminishing. A SE
sea/sound breeze is expected eastern areas at KGON and perhaps KBDR
and could briefly also approach KJFK but this appears less likely.
The sea breeze boundary could set up briefly near or just south of
the terminal early this evening but by this time will be in a
weakened state. Winds diminish this evening, becoming light and/or
variable overnight.
On Friday...Light N winds 5-10 kt become onshore near the coast
during the afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Sea breeze
could move through KJFK 21-02z with winds prevailing out of the SE.
Chance of this occurring is low as it is expected to meander south
of the terminal.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Friday-Wednesday: VFR. S-SE gusts 15-20 kt possible near the
coast during the afternoons.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
A light pressure gradient with high pressure in place and ocean seas
mainly around 3 ft leads to sub advisory conditions through the
weekend and into the first half of next week. Towards Tuesday ocean
seas may average closer to 4 feat with more of an prevailing
easterly / onshore flow.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
A stretch of dry weather continues through the entire forecast
period.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
A SE swell of 8 to 10 seconds will contribute to a moderate rip
current risk for both Friday and Saturday. Surf heights may actually
be a touch higher, especially further west on Friday with heights in
the surf zone of 3, possibly close to 4 feet. Not much of a wind
wave is expected both Friday and Saturday, although with sea breeze
development late Friday, and especially for Saturday afternoon the
wind component becomes more of a factor later in the day.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/BR
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...JE/BR
HYDROLOGY...JE/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JE