000
FXUS61 KOKX 261509
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1109 AM EDT Fri May 26 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control through the weekend and into
Monday. A backdoor cold front residing just north and northeast
of the area will likely move through Monday afternoon into
Monday Night, otherwise high pressure will remain in control
Tuesday into the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast was slightly adjusted with cloud coverage, temperatures
and dewpoints but overall no significant changes were made. The
forecast remains on track.

New England closed upper low gradually shears northeast through
the Canadian Maritimes today into tonight, with weak backside
shortwave sliding through and southeast of the region today.
Ridging surface/aloft across the Great Lakes builds towards the
region tonight. Meanwhile a cutoff upper low and surface coastal
low continue developing across the SE US/Tennessee Valley
states.

Mostly sunny conditions expected to prevail into this afternoon
with continued ridging aloft as a shortwave trough eventually exits
the region to the south and east.

Northerly flow weakens in response to approaching/developing
surface troughing, allowing for mid-late afternoon sea breeze
development which should be able to progress through much of the
coastal plain by evening.

Offshore flow and deep mixing in a moderated airmass before sea
breeze development should allow temps to rise to near seasonable
levels (around 70s interior, lower 70s-75 city/coast) before sea
breeze development.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper ridging surface/aloft remains in control across the Great
lakes into NE US through the holiday weekend. This will keep an
anomalous cutoff upper low and coastal low suppressed across the SE
US/Tennessee Valley states through the holiday weekend.

Moderating Canadian high pressure will dominate our weather pattern
through this period with tranquil conditions. General theme will be
a weak synoptic flow, giving way to SE sea breeze development each
afternoon. With plenty of sunshine, moderating airmass, and deep
mixing each day, temps should warm up quickly each morning before
halting/dropping after afternoon sea breeze frontal passage. Sea
breeze development will likely be by early afternoon for south
coasts, and quite progressive well inland each afternoon based on
the increasing land/ocean temp differential each day and with broad
easterly flow regime around the southeast low just to the south of
the area.

Models indicating flow between meso-high and weak interior troughing
will likely result in a weak NE/E flow to start Saturday, with
hybrid E/SE sea breeze working through most of the area in the
afternoon. This will likely limit temps to the lower 70s along the
south coasts (60s along the immediate ocean shoreline), increasing
to upper 70s well N&W of NYC with later/weaker sea-breeze and deeper
mixing.

Airmass continues to moderate on Sunday, with orientation of high
likely resulting in more of a weak S/SW synoptic flow to start , but
once again early and well inland progressing sea breeze development.
Temps should be a couple of degrees warmer based on airmass
moderation. Areas well N&W of the NYC/NJ metro will have the warmest
temps with temps rising into the lower 80s, while closer to the
south coast, temps should be limited to the lower 70s-75 (60s along
the beachfront).

Models in fairly good agreement with some increasing high clouds
Sunday Night into Monday as the closed SE low begins to drift east
towards the SE US coast, but any shower activity should remain
suppressed to the south. Potential for stratus development along the
coast Sunday Night into Monday morning from persistent onshore flow
and strengthening maritime inversion. Timing of backdoor cold front
will have to be refined, posing some uncertainty on temps. Similar
weak synoptic flow to start the day as Sat and Sun, and likely a
couple degrees warmer as airmass continue to moderate, but timing of
backdoor front will be critical with Canadian maritime airmass in
its wake quickly dropping temps several degrees on a gusty easterly
wind behind it. So could quickly go from warm to chilly for coastal
areas Mon aft/eve, particularly eastern shoreline areas. Will stay
close to NBM for highs ahead of backdoor front, with lower to mid
70s for south/east coasts, lower 80s NYC/NJ metro, to 85 for areas
well N&W of NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
No major changes to the forecast from Monday night through next
Thursday.

A blocking pattern will persist over the eastern CONUS with ridging
aloft and dry conditions through the period. High pressure will
likely be centered just off the New England coast Monday night into
Tuesday. This will help push a backdoor cold front across the area
with a cooler E-NE flow. Temperatures should be at least 5 to 10
degrees lower than those observed on Memorial Day, with highs in the
upper 60s and lower 70s near the coast and middle 70s across the
Lower Hudson Valley.

The surface high then builds westward Wednesday. Temperatures will
begin to warm back into the lower 80s inland and middle to upper 70s
most elsewhere. Some coastal locations may struggle to rise out of
the lower 70s due to onshore flow. Much of the guidance then signals
for the high to retrograde westward with a thermal trough possibly
setting up over the area on Thursday. The NBM has been consistent
with signaling warm temperatures across much of the area with highs
in the middle to upper 80s from the NYC metro on north and west.
Immediate coast locations could be cooler in the upper 70s and low
80s. These warmer temperatures are supported by NW flow aloft and
850 temperatures 16-18C.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR as high pressure remains in control through the weekend.

NNW-NNE winds under 10 kt this morning into early afternoon,
with SE-S seabreezes developing late morning at BDR and
elsewhere in the afternoon and evening. The earliest sea breezes
are likely to occur at KBDR and KGON. A light SE flow early
this evening becomes light and variable tonight.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of wind shift to the S/SE late this afternoon may be off
by 1-3 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday-Tuesday: VFR. S-SE gusts around 15 kt possible near
the coast each afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conds generally expected through Tuesday under a weak
pressure gradient under high pressure. The one exception will be
Monday aft into Monday Night, with potential for a brief period
of marginal SCA gusts and increased seas behind a backdoor cold
frontal passage. This will be something to monitor as this will
likely be an active day for recreational boating activity.

Additionally, the sub 60 degree water temperatures can quickly
cause hypothermia to anyone immersed in the water. At these
water temperatures, the average submerged person could lose
dexterity within minutes and be unable to accomplish simple
tasks. Anyone planning to recreate on small boats, canoes or
kayaks this holiday weekend should plan accordingly and use
extreme caution to avoid this threat.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The prolonged stretch of dry weather continues through the entire
forecast period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
There is a moderate risk of rip current development today with
3-4ft@9 sec period ESE swell, enhanced by afternoon SE sea
breeze development. Ample sunshine this morning will give way to scattered cu off the
New England high terrain this afternoon in response to
shortwave.

A moderate risk of rip current development is likely to
continue Saturday through Monday with a persistent 3 ft@7-8 sec
SE swell, and afternoon S/SE sea breeze development.

Rip current activity will likely be enhanced in vicinity of groin,
jetties, and piers through this period with E>W sweep of waves.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/NV
NEAR TERM...JM/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS/DW
MARINE...DS/NV
HYDROLOGY...DS/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...