000
FXUS61 KOKX 261824
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
224 PM EDT Fri May 26 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will continue building in from the Great Lakes going
into this holiday weekend. The high pressure area will begin to
weaken and shift offshore towards the latter half of the holiday
weekend. A backdoor cold front residing just north and
northeast of the area will likely move through Monday afternoon
into Monday Night, otherwise high pressure will remain in
control Tuesday into the end of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Thermal trough development this afternoon causing a temporary
weakness in the surface high pressure area. However, with ridging
still aloft as a shortwave trough pushes south of Long Island, cloud
coverage remains small with mostly sunny conditions prevailing.
Northerly surface winds have prevailed across most locations thus
far, with more southerly winds expected to develop by late this
afternoon with sea breeze development.
For this afternoon, forecast remains on track with again just some
slight adjustments to temperatures, dewpoints, and cloud coverage to
better match with observed trends. Most locations will have high
temperatures in the lower 70s with some mid 70s for parts of
Northeast NJ.
For tonight with the thermal trough dissipating as temperatures
cool, pressure tendency increases, allowing for subsidence. High
pressure will build in more tonight, and as a result, winds decouple
and sky conditions will remain mostly clear. This will provide ideal
radiational cooling conditions. For the forecast lows tonight, used
a blend of 3/4 cooler MAV MOS and 1/4 warmer MET MOS with a more
vast range of temperatures from the upper 30s in the Pine Barrens of
Long Island to upper 50s within parts of NYC.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper ridging surface/aloft remains in control across the Great
lakes into NE US through the holiday weekend. This will keep an
anomalous cutoff upper low and coastal low suppressed across the SE
US/Tennessee Valley states through the holiday weekend.
Moderating Canadian high pressure will dominate our weather pattern
through this period with tranquil conditions. General theme will be
a weak synoptic flow, giving way to SE sea breeze development each
afternoon. With plenty of sunshine, moderating airmass, and deep
mixing each day, temps should warm up quickly each morning before
halting/dropping after afternoon sea breeze frontal passage. Sea
breeze development will likely be by early afternoon for south
coasts, and quite progressive well inland each afternoon based on
the increasing land/ocean temp differential each day and with broad
easterly flow regime around the southeast low just to the south of
the area.
Models indicating flow between meso-high and weak interior troughing
will likely result in a weak NE/E flow to start Saturday, with
hybrid E/SE sea breeze working through most of the area in the
afternoon. This will likely limit temps to the lower 70s along the
south coasts (60s along the immediate ocean shoreline), increasing
to upper 70s well N&W of NYC with later/weaker sea-breeze and deeper
mixing.
Airmass continues to moderate on Sunday, with orientation of high
likely resulting in more of a weak S/SW synoptic flow to start , but
once again early and well inland progressing sea breeze development.
Temps should be a couple of degrees warmer based on airmass
moderation. Areas well N&W of the NYC/NJ metro will have the warmest
temps with temps rising into the lower 80s, while closer to the
south coast, temps should be limited to the lower 70s-75 (60s along
the beachfront).
Models in fairly good agreement with some increasing high clouds
Sunday Night into Monday as the closed SE low begins to drift east
towards the SE US coast, but any shower activity should remain
suppressed to the south. Potential for stratus development along the
coast Sunday Night into Monday morning from persistent onshore flow
and strengthening maritime inversion. Timing of backdoor cold front
will have to be refined, posing some uncertainty on temps. Similar
weak synoptic flow to start the day as Sat and Sun, and likely a
couple degrees warmer as airmass continue to moderate, but timing of
backdoor front will be critical with Canadian maritime airmass in
its wake quickly dropping temps several degrees on a gusty easterly
wind behind it. So could quickly go from warm to chilly for coastal
areas Mon aft/eve, particularly eastern shoreline areas. Will stay
close to NBM for highs ahead of backdoor front, with lower to mid
70s for south/east coasts, lower 80s NYC/NJ metro, to 85 for areas
well N&W of NYC.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
No major changes to the forecast from Monday night through next
Thursday.
A blocking pattern will persist over the eastern CONUS with ridging
aloft and dry conditions through the period. High pressure will
likely be centered just off the New England coast Monday night into
Tuesday. This will help push a backdoor cold front across the area
with a cooler E-NE flow. Temperatures should be at least 5 to 10
degrees lower than those observed on Memorial Day, with highs in the
upper 60s and lower 70s near the coast and middle 70s across the
Lower Hudson Valley.
The surface high then builds westward Wednesday. Temperatures will
begin to warm back into the lower 80s inland and middle to upper 70s
most elsewhere. Some coastal locations may struggle to rise out of
the lower 70s due to onshore flow. Much of the guidance then signals
for the high to retrograde westward with a thermal trough possibly
setting up over the area on Thursday. The NBM has been consistent
with signaling warm temperatures across much of the area with highs
in the middle to upper 80s from the NYC metro on north and west.
Immediate coast locations could be cooler in the upper 70s and low
80s. These warmer temperatures are supported by NW flow aloft and
850 temperatures 16-18C.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR as high pressure remains in control through the weekend.
Northerly flow and deep mixing will likely delay the seabreeze
to late afternoon/early evening for the coastal terminals.
Elsewhere, N winds will generally be at 10 kt or less with
occasional gusts 15-18kt early. Winds will then go light and
variable tonight, becoming light NE after 12Z Saturday, then SE
by afternoon at 10 kt or less.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of seabreeze could be delayed by 1-2 hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday-Wednesday: VFR. E winds G15-20kt Monday and Tuesday.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Conditions are expected to remain below SCA thresholds going
into the holiday weekend. The Sub-SCA conditions are generally
expected through Tuesday under a weak pressure gradient under
high pressure. The one exception will be Monday aft into Monday
Night, with potential for a brief period of marginal SCA gusts
and increased seas behind a backdoor cold frontal passage. This
will be something to monitor as this will likely be an active
day for recreational boating activity.
Additionally, the sub 60 degree water temperatures can quickly
cause hypothermia to anyone immersed in the water. At these
water temperatures, the average submerged person could lose
dexterity within minutes and be unable to accomplish simple
tasks. Anyone planning to recreate on small boats, canoes or
kayaks this holiday weekend should plan accordingly and use
extreme caution to avoid this threat.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The prolonged stretch of dry weather continues through the entire
forecast period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
There is a moderate risk of rip current development today with
3-4ft@9 sec period ESE swell, enhanced by afternoon SE sea
breeze development.
A moderate risk of rip current development is likely to
continue Saturday through Monday with a persistent 3 ft@7-8 sec
SE swell, and afternoon S/SE sea breeze development.
Rip current activity will likely be enhanced in vicinity of groin,
jetties, and piers through this period with E>W sweep of waves.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/NV
NEAR TERM...JM/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JM/DS/NV
HYDROLOGY...DS/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...