000
FXUS61 KOKX 271739
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
139 PM EDT Sat May 27 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control through the weekend. A backdoor
cold front moves through on Monday. High pressure will otherwise
remain over the area midweek, with a series of weak troughs
passing through the region Wednesday Night into Thursday Night.
A cold front passes through Friday, with Canadian high pressure
likely building back into the region for the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Seabreezes/return S/SE flow slowly working north across LI and
CT/Lower Hudson valley. While the vertical wind profile is
weak, NE flow and deep mixing (dry airmass) continue to battle
the wind shift. This may allow for some slightly warmer readings
than forecast away from the coast. Expect most locations to
become S/SE by late afternoon. Temperatures along the coast will
likely hold steady if not fall behind the boundaries.
Otherwise, forecast remains on track with only minor
adjustments.
A blocking pattern persists aloft this weekend with a ridge
overhead and a slow moving upper low over the southeast states.
High pressure will be in control at the surface.
Highs today will be warmest away from the immediate coast,
generally in the upper 70s with a few warmer spots possibly
touching 80 degrees. Highs along and near the coast should be
held down in the lower 70s. The immediate south shore of LI will
be in the upper 60s to around 70 due to the onshore flow.
Subsidence from the deep layered ridging will keep skies mostly
sunny with just a few high clouds from the aforementioned upper
low. Mostly clear and cool conditions are expected tonight with
lows falling into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Lows in the NYC
metro will be a bit higher in the upper 50s.
Similar conditions are forecast on Sunday with temperatures
potentially a few degrees warmer well inland. Sea breezes should
develop quicker as the main center of the high will shift a bit
further south and east. This will help prevent temperatures from
rising above the lower 70s near the immediate coast. Model soundings
and simulated IR brightness temperatures progs from some of the
global models indicate a bit of an increase in high clouds for the
southern half of the area. Do not anticipate these clouds impacting
overall sky conditions with mostly sunny conditions anticipated
areawide.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
There is little change to the large scale pattern into early
next week. Tranquil conditions continue Sunday night, but
milder temperatures closer to normal in the 50s are forecast. A
shortwave is expected to pass across southeast Canada and the
Canadian Maritimes Sunday night into Monday. The shortwave will
help push a backdoor cold front towards the area on Monday,
likely moving through in the afternoon and evening. The frontal
passage may also develop some stratocu Monday afternoon. Behind
the cold front will be a reinforcing high pressure that will
build over New England late Monday and then settle just off the
coast Monday night into Tuesday. Upper ridging remains in place
early next week, but the upper low over the south may lift a bit
ENE towards the southern Middle Atlantic. The southern half of
the region may see a bit more high clouds compared to the
northern half into Tuesday.
The backdoor front will move through dry, but shift winds to
an E and then NE flow late Monday into Monday night. This will
help usher in cooler air that will be in place into Tuesday.
Temperatures across the Lower Hudson Valley and northeast New
Jersey should be able to warm into the lower 80s with the rest
of the area staying in the 70s. Temperatures should begin
falling behind the front across Connecticut and Long Island, and
then the rest of the area in the evening. Lows on Monday night
look to fall into the 40s inland and lower and middle 50s
elsewhere. The passage of the front will also bring an increase
in winds with sustained E-ENE winds 10-15 mph and gusts 20-25
mph, strongest near the coast. Breezy E winds may continue into
Tuesday as well. The E flow Tuesday will help hold highs down in
the upper 60s and lower 70s for much of the area with portions
of Orange County potentially warming into the middle 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Persistent ridging surface/aloft across the eastern Great Lakes
into the Northeast will gradually break down midweek, with the
southern US closed low finally shearing off the Mid Atlantic
Coast. This will allow a strengthening SE Canada upper low to
begin to drift south and exert its influence on the NE US
heading into the weekend.
Surface high pressure continues to weaken Tuesday Night into
Wednesday, while the weakening southeastern low pressure slides
off the Mid Atlantic coast. Its precip shield will get close as
the low passes just to the south, with a low probability of
skirting southern portions of the area Tue Night/Wed. Canadian
maritime flow regime relaxes Tue Night, giving way to a light
flow regime and afternoon sea breeze development on Wed. With
continued warming aloft, this will allow for a moderation in
temps areawide. Temps will be a bit tricky, based on amount of
high/mid clouds streaming in to the north of the shearing low,
but with light AM flow regime and deep mixing, temps should be
able to rapidly warm in the AM before progressive sea breeze
development(lower 80s interior, while capped to the lower to mid
70s for coast).
Potential for very warm to hot and dry conditions on Thursday
and Friday with deep W/NW flow aloft advecting a very warm
airmass (building across Ontario and Quebec midweek) ahead of an
approaching cold front. W/NW flow to start both days, ample
sunshine, deep mixing above 850mb, and 850hpa temps warming to
16-17C bring potential for temps in the 90s both days away from
the immediate coast. Even coastal areas should quickly warm well
into the 80s in this set-up, before afternoon sea-breeze
development. These temps are about 15 degrees above seasonable
for early June. NBM deterministic is currently running close to
the 25-50th percentile, with a healthy spread of 8-10 degrees
between 25 and 75th percentile. Potential for forecast high
temps to trend into the lower 90s to 95 across NYC/NJ metro and
interior, and upper 80s to around 90 for much of the coast if
the downslope set-up become realized. Heat indices will likely
be at or below ambient temps due to the dry airmass.
The cold front passes through sometime Friday aft/eve, although
timing is is still uncertain. Moisture and forcing will be limited
in NW flow regime, which should limit shower/tstm activity
to isolated with passage.
Canadian high pressure likely builds towards the area Friday Night
into Saturday with gradual caa and dry conditions and temps still
likely running a few degrees above seasonable in the upper 70s to
lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR as high pressure remains in control through the weekend.
Sea breezes through most of the terminals, and will be through
KLGA, KTEB, and KTEB by 20Z0. Winds diminish and become light
and variable at all the terminals this evening. Then a S to SW
flow develops Sunday morning, with sea breeze enhancement.
Timing of onset of southerly winds Sunday may be an hour or two
later than forecast.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of sea breeze through KLGA, KEWR, and KTEB uncertain,
however, sea breeze likely occurs between 18Z and 20Z. Winds
becoming light and variable this evening, and then become S to
SW Sunday morning, with timing an hour or two later than
forecast at this time.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday afternoon: VFR.
Monday: VFR. Light winds in the morning, becoming E 10-15G20-25kt
during the afternoon.
Tuesday through Thursday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Cold water headlines continue through the holiday weekend for
cold water immersion threat from sub 60 degrees waters.
A relatively weak pressure gradient this weekend will keep
conditions below SCA levels through Sunday night. Winds may
approach 25 kt by Monday afternoon as a backdoor cold front
moves through. Ocean seas may also build close to 5 ft Monday
afternoon into Monday night. Winds and seas should then fall
back below SCA levels on Tuesday as the gradient begins to
relax.
Sub-advisory conds likely Tuesday Night through Friday in weak
pressure gradient regime and with persistent SE swells gradually
subsiding.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The prolonged stretch of dry weather continues through next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate risk of rip current development at Atlantic ocean
beaches is expected to continue through Monday with persistent
3 ft@7-8 second SE swells, and afternoon S/SE sea breezes.
Rip current activity will likely be enhanced in vicinity of groins,
jetties, and piers through this period with E-W longshore
current.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/NV
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...DS/NV
HYDROLOGY...DS/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...