000
FXUS61 KOKX 271946
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
346 PM EDT Sat May 27 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will be in control through the remainder of the
holiday weekend. A backdoor cold front moves through on Monday,
otherwise high pressure will dominate the upcoming week until
another cold front passes through Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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A blocking upper high will remain across the Great Lakes and
into the Northeast, while an upper low along the Southeast coast
gets absorbed by a larger upper low tracking slowly east across
the Tennessee Valley. High pressure will remain in control of
the weather, however, due to surface troughing across the
Northeast, there will be a break in the surface ridge across
the area. This will keep the area under a light southerly flow
tonight with gradually increasing low-level moisture. Lows will
be a bit warmer than the previous night, ranging from the upper
40s to lower 50s in outlying area, to 55-60 across the NYC
metro area. This is right around normal. The Pine Barrens region
of Long Island may get as low as the mid 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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A strong upper trough moving over top the ridge in the east will
drop southeast across eastern Canada on Sunday, sending a cold
front toward the area. The latter of which will move into the
area on Monday. High pressure will be centered east of the area
with a southerly flow to continue on Sunday. The flow does
weaken and become light and variable late Sunday night ahead of
the approaching cold front. Still though, this will be a dry
forecast and inland areas and locations just north and west of
the NYC metro are likely to be a bit warmer, with highs around
80. Coastal locations should once again see highs in the 70s
with the immediate south shore of Long Island in the upper 60s
to around 70.
Lows Sunday night will warm up several degrees with readings in
the lower to mid 50s in outlying areas and around 60 for the
NYC metro. The Pine Barrens region of Long Island may get into
the upper 40s with clear skies and diminishing winds.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The first part of the of the long term forecast will be dominated by
an anticyclonic flow aloft and high pressure at the surface. A
backdoor cold front is however expected to pass through during
Monday afternoon. This will bring somewhat breezy conditions with a
shot of cold air advection. Inland high temperatures should still be
able to sneak into the 80s before the onset of cold advection, but
coastal areas will be likely held in the 70s as the easterly wind
flow ushers in cool air from the ocean and LI Sound waters. The
front will be passing through with little moisture, so dry weather
is anticipated.
A low pressure center meanders in the vicinity of North Carolina and
the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday and Wednesday. The northern fringe of
associated rainfall likely doesn`t reach us, so anticipating it to
remain dry through at least Thursday. High temperatures on Tuesday
at or slightly below normal. Highs then moderate Wednesday and
Thursday. 850mb temperatures for Thursday expected to be 16-17C, so
highs Thursday`s around 90 for some inland spots. Dewpoints on
Thursday will be only in the 50s, so heat indices will be at or
below ambient temperatures.
Heights aloft begin to fall late in the week into next weekend,
helped by shortwave energy shifting through the Northeast. This will
help send a cold front and possibly a pre-frontal trough through the
area sometime during Friday. Still not sure regarding which part of
the day the energy aloft and frontal boundaries pass through, but it
appears that the better chances of an isolated shower or
thunderstorm would be Friday afternoon or evening. 850mb temps are
still progged at 16-17C, but with the potential of a more westerly
flow ahead of stronger cold advection, even some coastal areas could
approach 90 degrees. Not highly confident in this happening at this
point, so will follow deterministic NBM, which has highs in the mid
80s for much of the coast and 85-90 elsewhere. No heat advisory
concerns due to dewpoints in the 50s again.
Cyclonic flow aloft on Saturday could help trigger an afternoon
shower NW of the city. Highs cooler than Thursday and Friday, but
still above normal.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR as high pressure remains in control through the weekend.
Sea breezes are through most of the terminals, and will be moving
through KLGA and KTEB around 20Z or soon after. Winds diminish and
become light and variable at all the terminals this evening. Then a
S to SW flow develops Sunday morning, with sea breeze enhancement.
Timing of onset of southerly winds Sunday may be an hour or two
later than forecast.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of sea breeze through KLGA and KTEB remains uncertain,
however, sea breeze should be through around 20Z, or soon after.
Winds becoming light and variable this evening, and then become S to
SW Sunday morning, with timing an hour or two later than forecast at
this time.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday afternoon: VFR.
Monday: VFR. Light winds in the morning, becoming E 10-15G20-25kt
during the afternoon.
Tuesday through Thursday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Cold water headlines continue through the holiday weekend for
cold water immersion threat from sub 60 degrees waters.
A relatively weak pressure gradient this weekend will keep
conditions below SCA levels through Sunday night.
Winds may approach 25 kt Monday afternoon end evening mainly on the
ocean as a backdoor cold front moves through. Ocean seas may also
reach 5 ft late Monday afternoon into Monday night. Winds and seas
should then fall back below SCA levels Tuesday morning as the
gradient begins to relax.
Sub-advisory conds likely Tuesday Night through Thursday in weak
pressure gradient regime and with persistent SE swells gradually
subsiding.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The prolonged stretch of dry weather continues through next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A moderate risk of rip current development at Atlantic ocean
beaches is expected to continue through Monday with persistent
3 ft@7-8 second SE swells, and afternoon S/SE sea breezes.
Rip current activity will likely be enhanced in vicinity of groins,
jetties, and piers through this period with E-W longshore current.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...