000
FXUS61 KOKX 291129
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
729 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front moves through the area today. High
pressure then dominates through the week. A cold front
approaches Friday and passes though late in the day or at night.
Canadian high pressure builds back into the region for next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecast on track this morning. A backdoor cold front moves
across the area this morning with NE-E winds increasing into the
afternoon. Temperatures will warm up this morning into the 70s
and then should begin to fall in the afternoon as the stronger
easterly flow ushers in cooler air. The front will move through
dry with only a few high clouds, especially over the southern
sky. Sustained winds around 15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph are
expected in the afternoon, strongest near Long Island.

Heights rise aloft as the blocking ridge shifts east out of
the Great Lakes tonight and centers itself over the northeast
on Tuesday. Surface high pressure will dominate during this time
period. The pressure gradient weakens considerably Monday
night, but it may still remain breezy along the immediate coast.
The core of the high should then be located just off the New
England coast on Tuesday keeping an onshore easterly flow. Lows
Monday night will fall into the middle and upper 40s inland and
lower to middle 50s near the coast. Highs on Tuesday will be in
the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The blocking ridge will remain nearly stationary over the
northeast through Thursday. The upper low that has been near
the Carolinas will continue to weaken and move off the Middle
Atlantic coast Tuesday night into Wednesday. The blocking ridge
may force lingering energy from this weakening upper low to
retrograde back over the Middle Atlantic. Subsidence from the
ridge aloft and at the surface will keep our conditions dry.

There may be a slight increase in high clouds near the coast
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Otherwise, mostly clear skies are
expected into Thursday.

Another cool night is in store for Tuesday night with lows in
the middle 40s inland and upper 40s to low 50s near the coast.
Temperatures start to rebound Wednesday with highs getting back
into the 70s. Some interior locations in the Lower Hudson Valley
and northeast New Jersey could come close to 80 degrees. The
NBM has been slowly trending down with highs on Thursday,
especially for the southeastern half of the area. SE flow looks
predominate near the coast, which should hold temperatures in
the 70s. From the NYC metro on north and west, highs should
reach the middle 80s. Some locations could reach the upper 80s
in the Lower Hudson Valley. This downward trend for Thursday can
also be attributed to 850 mb temperatures averaging around
13-15C instead of 15-17C which was the case in previous model
runs.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Not much change in the long term and stuck fairly close to
the NBM/previous forecast.

The long term starts off with some uncertainty regarding when
a cold front will be passing through during the Friday/Friday
night time frame, but the timing has trended slower over the
past couple of days. Have gone with a slight chance of a
shower/thunderstorm north of the city in the afternoon, then as
slight chance east of NYC at night. A prefrontal trough may
promote an offshore flow for some coastal areas, and with 850mb
temps progged at 16-18C, have gone close to the 50th percentile
NBM, which was warmer than deterministic. Friday will be the
warmest day of the long term with highs in the 80s and lower
90s.

Cooler for the weekend with high pressure building in from the
north or northeast behind the cold front. A cyclonic flow aloft
will bring a slight chance of an afternoon shower NW of the
city Saturday afternoon, otherwise dry through the weekend. NBM
looked too warm for high temperatures considering an onshore
flow and progged temps at the top of the mixed layer, so used
the 25th percentile. Similar temperatures are expected for
Sunday - mostly in the 70s.

Temperatures warm a bit for Monday, with highs in the upper
70s and lower to middle 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A backdoor cold front move across the region today from
northeast to southwest. High pressure from the north returns
thereafter.

VFR conditions. nearly calm and variable direction through 12-14z.
Winds will then transition to a more northeast then easterly
flow and become gusty during the afternoon. Wind speeds
generally below 10 kt this morning. By afternoon, speeds
increase to near 10-15 kt with gusts near 20-20 kt. However,
east of NYC terminals winds are forecast to be closer to 15 kt
with gusts around 25 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of gusts on Monday could be 1-3 hours off with start and end
times. Gusts could occasionally be a few kts higher than in TAF.

KJFK could see a higher sustained wind and no gust for a few
hours this afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday through Thursday: VFR. NE-E wind 10-12kt on Tuesday.
Wednesday and Thursday SE winds 10kt or less.

Friday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of a showers/thunderstorms and
MVFR, mainly at night. Best chance for any storms appears to be
east of NYC

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
A backdoor cold front moves across the waters this
morning. Winds and seas remain below SCA levels before the
frontal passage. NE-E winds will increase once the front moves
across the waters. Winds will likely gust around 25 kt first on
the eastern LI Sound, eastern LI Bays, and ocean east of
Moriches Inlet. SCA gusts then expand west across the rest of
the ocean, south shore bays, and NY Harbor in the afternoon.
Have expanded the SCA to include the eastern LI Bays and eastern
LI Sound. Gusts on the remaining LI sound waters should remain
below SCA levels, but an occasional gust up to 25 kt is possible
in the afternoon and evening.

Ocean seas will also build to around 5-6 ft this afternoon and
evening. These elevated seas will begin to subside late tonight
into Tuesday morning, but 5 ft seas remain on the ocean west of
Moriches Inlet through Tuesday. The SCA has been extended until
22z Tuesday for these ocean zones. Otherwise, sub-SCA conditions
are likely Tuesday through Thursday night.

The next chance of SCA conditions are expected either late
Friday or Saturday with the next cold front that moves across
the region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high risk of rip current development today at
Atlantic Ocean beaches. This is due to increasing E flow,
becoming 15-20 kt sustained in the afternoon. 5-6 ft seas are
also expected in the afternoon.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at Atlantic
Ocean beaches on Tuesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ332-
     340.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for ANZ338-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ353-355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/DS
HYDROLOGY...BC/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...