000
FXUS61 KOKX 300043
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
843 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the northeast coast remains through Tuesday
night. The high will remain anchored over the area and adjacent
Atlantic waters into late week while slowly weakening. A back
door cold front will pass through Friday night, followed by high
pressure building down from eastern Canada next weekend. An
offshore storm may pass by to the southeast next Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Forecast remains on track this evening, with temperatures and
dewpoints between forecast and observed values within a few
degrees of each other. Clouds are decreasing and moving farther
to the south of the area.
A high amplitude blocking ridge remains over the northeast and
into eastern Canada through tonight as surface high pressure
builds southward from New England. This cooler air mass will
keep temperatures a few degrees below seasonal normals. Few if
any clouds will be across the region as high clouds associated
with low pressure along the SE coast remain just south.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The upper blocking ridge will remain nearly stationary over the
northeast through Tuesday night as the weak upper low along the
southeast coast meanders northward with a weak steering current.
Meanwhile surface high pressure remains off the northeast coast.
And with this cool air mass remaining in place temperatures
Tuesday and Tuesday night will remain below seasonal normals.
With onshore low level flow there is a chance of increased
clouds, especially along the coast, Tuesday night.
Smoke from Canadian wildfires is projected to mix down into the
lower levels of the atmosphere Tuesday, and potentially near
the ground. The smoke may produce more hazy conditions aloft.
And with the chance of restrictions will have patchy smoke and
haze.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Stagnant flow aloft should continue into late week, with a
weakening rex block in place, the associated upper high
lingering over the Great Lakes and a weakening upper trough
remaining to our south. The air mass in place should warm up,
with Thu and especially Fri being quite warm as H8 temps
increase to +14C by Thu and +16C by Fri. That should support
temps reaching the mid/upper 80s from NYC north/west on Thu, and
lower 90s there and also across interior S CT on Fri, per NBM
50th/75th percentile blend on temps.
As the upper high retrogrades westward to the northern Plains
late this week into the weekend, an upper trough swinging SE
across ern Canada should drive a back door cold front through
Fri night, with chance PoP for showers and possibly a tstm
during that time, with an ocean storm developing in response. NE
winds between the offshore system and high pressure to the
north and likely to increase, but it remains to be seen if the
low will be close enough to throw precip back toward the coast
early next week. Meanwhile, today`s 29/12Z ECMWF is all alone in
predicting the nrn stream upper low to track to our west and
interact with a nearby inverted trough extending from offshore
to produce heavy rain this weekend. So far it is an extreme
outlier compared compared to other deterministic guidance as
well as the NBM, and would be mesoscale in nature at any rate,
so at this point appears unlikely to occur over our forecast
area, with the GFS showing this occurring well offshore, and the
Canadian not showing it at all and keeping any closed low
remaining in the Canadian Maritimes.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure remains in control through the TAF period with its
center staying south of Nova Scotia.
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
There will be the potential of some haze and smoke on Tuesday
from distant fires over Nova Scotia, but forecast coverage is
patchy, so left out of TAFs at the moment. This could limit
visibilities to 5-6 SM, including possibly degrading slant range
visibility.
Winds will be easterly near 10 kt this evening with some gusts up to
near 20 kt. Winds will diminish late tonight and become more ENE
near 5-8 kts for most terminals. For Tuesday, winds will become more
E-ESE near 10-15 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts could occasionally peak a few kts higher than forecast
this evening. Occasional gusts up to 20 kt possible Tuesday
afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday night through Thursday: VFR. Smoke from fires across
Nova Scotia could limit visibilities to around 5SM. This may be
more of an issue with slant range visibilities. Low chance for
low clouds/fog Tuesday night.
Friday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of a showers/thunderstorms and
MVFR, mainly at night. Best chance for any storms appears to be
east of NYC.
Saturday: A few showers may linger into the morning, otherwise
VFR. NE-E winds 10-15kt G15-25kt, highest at the coastal
terminals.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Wind gusts should gradually diminish tonight from the north and
east to the south and west as high pressure builds in from New
England. The SCA gusts will primarily just be across the ocean
where seas are still between 6 and 7 ft early this evening.
Ocean seas remain at SCA levels through tonight and Tuesday
morning. The ocean seas will gradually subside below SCA levels
from east to west Tuesday afternoon into the start of Tuesday
evening.
By Tuesday night winds and seas will remain below advisory
levels on all waters with high pressure dominating.
SCA cond could develop on the ocean, ern Sound, and the bays of
Long Island on Sat as NE flow increases following a back door
cold frontal passage. There is potential for gusts 25-30 kt and
ocean seas 5-7 ft.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A high rip current risk continues at the ocean beaches, with
brisk E-SE flow and surf heights 3-4 ft in spots. NWPS predicted
rip current risk for Tue is actually higher for Tue than it was
for today, as E swell continues with similar heights/periods of
5-6 ft and 7-8 seconds, so have continued the high rip current
risk into Tue. At least a moderate if not high risk expected for
Wed at the ocean beaches.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/MET
NEAR TERM...JM/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JM/DW
MARINE...BG/MET
HYDROLOGY...BG/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG/JM