000
FXUS61 KOKX 301436
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1036 AM EDT Tue May 30 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Thursday. A cold front
approaches Friday and passes though late in the day or at
night. Canadian high pressure builds back into the region for
next weekend. An offshore storm may pass nearby early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast on track with only minor adjustments to temperature and
dew points to reflect the latest observations.
High pressure will be centered south of Nova Scotia today. Smoke
from wildfires located in the southern portion of the province is
projected to mix down into lower levels today as it advects toward
us from the ENE, potentially reaching near ground. The smoke may
produce hazy conditions aloft with visibility restrictions. Have
therefore kept patchy smoke and haze in the forecast. Very little,
if any, cloud cover otherwise. Highs around 5 degrees below normal.
Smoke is projected to exit west and north of the forecast area this
evening for the most part, but could potentially linger overnight.
With a persistent onshore flow becoming lighter, patchy fog across
mainly LI and SE CT. Little to no cloud cover otherwise, and
combined with light to calm winds, good radiational cooling
conditions are anticipated. Some areas across the northernmost zones
as well as the Pine Barrens Region fall to around 40 overnight. Mid
40s to mid 50s for most other locations.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The weather pattern doesn`t change all that much during this period.
The center of high pressure to our ENE weakens as it drifts east,
however the surface pressure probably remains about the same here
with ridging aloft promoting subsidence. Mostly sunny and dry for
both Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures closer to normal for
Wednesday, and even warmer on Thursday as temps aloft warm up. The
mixing depth should be limited somewhat across the entire area by
lingering subsidence and even more so for coastal areas with on
onshore flow. Where it can mix up to 850 mb, highs in the mid 80s
with temps of 13-14C at the top of the mixed layer. Have gone a
little below deterministic NBM, which appears to be too warm given
the anticipated mixing depths mainly away from the coastal areas.
Didn`t have enough confidence to add smoke and haze during the short
term period, but may need to eventually add both into the
forecast.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not much change in the long term and stuck fairly close to the
NBM/previous forecast.
The long term starts off Friday which will be the warmest day of the
week. 850 temperatures increase to 16-18C, which should support
surface temperatures reaching the middle and upper 80s, to lower 90s
across portions of the interior. Stuck fairly close to the 50th
percentile NBM, which was warmer than deterministic for temperatures.
A back door cold front is expected to approach during the day Friday
and move across the area from northeast to southwest Friday night.
This front is expected to set off some showers and thunderstorms
from late afternoon through Friday night with the best chance of any
precipitation falling east of NYC.
Conditions will be much cooler for the weekend with high pressure
building in from the north or northeast behind the cold front. A
cyclonic flow aloft will bring a slight chance of showers to the
area during the day Saturday, with drier conditions for Sunday.
Temperatures Saturday and Sunday are expected to be in the 70s,
except right along the coast, where temperatures may only top off in
the upper 60s.
Temperatures warm a bit for Monday, with highs in the upper 70s and
lower to middle 80s. Depending on the exact track of an offshore
low, there could be some showers around the area on Monday into
Tuesday. Will carry a slight chance POP to account for this.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains in control through the TAF period with its
center staying south of Nova Scotia.
Winds around the high pressure system will project smoke from
Canadian wildfires over Nova Scotia into the local area this
afternoon. This smoke is forecast to mix down into the lower
levels of the atmosphere today, and potentially near the ground.
The last few runs of the HRRR model has pushed the timing of
haze and smoke back a few hours so the new 12z TAFs will reflect
this change. It should be noted that there remains uncertainty
with the timing of haze and smoke reaching each terminal.
With combination of the haze and smoke in the lower levels of
the atmosphere, there could be significant slant range visibilities
this afternoon, mostly likely reducing visibilities to less
than 4sm. The most likely time for the worst of the conditions
will be from about 19z-00z, slightly earlier to the east and
slightly later to the west as the smoke travels from east to
west.
There is some uncertainty with how much surface restrictions to
sky/vsby there will be with the haze and smoke. Amendments may
be needed.
Otherwise, winds will becoming E-ESE near 10-15 kt this
afternoon and then light and variable tonight.
There is a chance of fog Tuesday night at some of the area
terminals. Low confidence on fog development and have left out
of the TAF for now.
The afternoon KJFK, KLGA, KEWR haze potential forecast is
RED...which implies slant range visibility less than 4sm outside
of cloud.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts up to 20 kt possible this afternoon.
There is some uncertainty with how much surface restrictions to
sky/vsby there will be with the haze and smoke. Amendments may
be needed.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Wednesday: VFR. Smoke from fires across Nova Scotia could limit
visibilities to around 5SM. This may be more of an issue with
slant range visibilities.
Thursday: VFR.
Friday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of showers/thunderstorms and
MVFR, mainly at night.
Saturday: Mainly VFR with a chance of showers throughout the
day. NE-E winds near 10-15kt with gusts near 20-25kt, highest at
the coastal terminals.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
East winds will slowly diminish today across all waters. Gusts to 25
kt on the ocean waters today, lingering longer west of Moriches
Inlet into the afternoon. Seas/swell will also diminish today, with
all ocean zones likely below 5 ft by the end of the afternoon.
SCA is cancelled for the easternmost ocean zone this morning.
Sub- advisory conditions then prevail through at least Thursday
with a weak pressure gradient promoting winds of 10 kt or less
as seas remain below 5 ft.
The next chance of SCA conditions is expected late Friday night
or early Saturday morning with the next cold front that moves
across the region. The SCA conditions are expected into at least
Sunday morning, before starting to fall below SCA criteria
either late Sunday or Sunday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high risk of rip current development for the ocean
beaches today with a brisk E flow, surf heights 3-4 ft in spots and
an easterly swell. A moderate risk is expected for Wednesday with
diminishing winds and surf height/swell.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ353-
355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC/MW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...