000
FXUS61 KOKX 302220
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
620 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will remain in control through Friday. A back door
cold front will pass through Friday night into early Saturday,
followed by high pressure building from the north. Another cold
front may pass on Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains generally over the area with clear skies into
tonight. Hazy skies will persist into this evening with some low-
level smoke also over the area. The smoke originated from a couple
of wildfires over Nova Scotia and the high pressure is allowing the
smoke to filter into our area. This smoke likely lingers over the
area tonight.
Otherwise, light onshore flow this afternoon and into this evening
will aide in moisture advection with generally clear skies allowing
temperatures to drop this evening. As a result, there is a chance of
patchy fog and low stratus, especially for coastal areas. Lows
tonight will be in the 40s for much of the area with the coolest
spots for interior locations. The NYC metro and surrounding areas
may not drop out of the 50s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure continues to dominate the area with clear skies and
generally light winds expected during the day. Some low-level smoke
may also linger around the area along with widespread hazy skies.
High temperatures will be in the upper 70s and low 80s for the
northwestern interior spots with locations closer to the coast in
the low to middle 70s.
Another round of low stratus and patchy fog remains possible for
Wednesday night with high pressure in place. An increase in surface
moisture with onshore flow will prevent lows from dropping lower
than 50 for much of the area, the NYC metro may not drop below
60.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Fcst confidence from Thu into daytime Fri fairly high, as an
upper ridge to the west and a broad trough to the south both
persist. Enough ridging aloft should remain in place to keep the
southern sys from impacting our wx, meanwhile we should turn
progressively warmer Thu into Fri, with highs in the 80s on Thu
away from south facing shores, and reaching the lower 90s NW of
NYC on Fri, a good 5-10 deg above normal along the coast and
10-15 deg above normal inland.
Timing of a back door cold fropa Fri night/Sat still in
question, with the GFS faster than the ECMWF. Because of this
kept high temps on Sat a little warmer than NBM, with near 80 NW
of NYC and reaching the mid/upper 70s elsewhere. As high
pressure to the north builds in through the rest of the
weekend, temps should trend to within a few degrees either side
of normal from Sunday through Tuesday, with Sunday the coolest
of the three days (upper 60s east to mid 70s west).
Another cold front may pass on Tue. ECMWF and GFS are in close
agreement with the 30/12Z cycle, but run-to-run timing and
position of wx systems has been inconsistent given model
difficulty handling the overall blocky pattern aloft extending
from ern NoAm across the northern Atlantic, so fropa could be
delayed into Wed.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains in control through the TAF period with its
center staying south of Nova Scotia.
Winds around the high pressure system will project smoke from
Canadian wildfires over Nova Scotia into the local area into
this evening. This smoke is forecast to mix down into the lower
levels of the atmosphere and potentially near the ground from
time to time which may impact visibility near the surface at
some terminals. Conditions will improve overnight.
With combination of the haze and smoke in the lower levels of
the atmosphere, there could be significant slant range
visibilities this evening peaking after 4 PM through sunset,
mostly likely reducing visibilities to less than 4SM.
Otherwise, winds will becoming E-ESE near 10-15 kt this
afternoon and then light and variable tonight.
There is a chance of fog or low stratus at some of the area
terminals tonight. Low confidence on fog development and have
left out of the TAF for now with the exception of KGON.
The afternoon KJFK, KLGA, KEWR haze potential forecast is RED...
which implies slant range visibility less than 4SM outside of
cloud.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts up to 20 kt possible this evening.
There remains some uncertainty with how much surface
restrictions to sky/vsby there will be with the haze and
smoke. Amendments may be needed.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday: VFR. Smoke from fires across Nova Scotia could limit
visibilities to around 5SM. This may be more of an issue with
slant range visibilities.
Thursday: VFR.
Friday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of showers/thunderstorms and
MVFR, mainly at night.
Saturday: MVFR possible with a chance of showers throughout the
day. NE-E winds near 10-15kt with gusts near 20-25kt, highest
at the coastal terminals.
Sunday: Becoming VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Any remaining gusts near 25 kt and ocean seas near 5 feet
should diminish this evening. Sub-SCA conditions are then
expected for all waters through at least Friday night.
SCA cond should return to the ocean and the ern Sound/bays
daytime Sat after a back door cold frontal passage, with NE flow
gusting to 25-30 kt (highest on the ocean), and ocean seas up to
6 ft. Winds diminish Sat night but elevated ocean seas should
linger into then, and possibly into part of daytime Sunday on
the outer waters closer to 20 nm offshore.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
No hydrologic impacts expected through early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
There is a high risk of rip current development for the ocean
beaches today with a brisk E flow/swell and surf heights 2-3 ft.
A moderate risk is expected for Wed/Thu with diminishing winds
but with some residual swell.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BG/MW
HYDROLOGY...BG/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...