000
FXUS61 KOKX 011803
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
203 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through Friday. A backdoor
cold front is expected Friday night/Saturday morning with an
area of low pressure impacting the area through the weekend.
This area of low pressure may linger nearby through the middle
of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Made some slight adjustments to better match with observed
trends with regards to dewpoints and temperatures. Decreased the
cloud coverage in the forecast with a full sunny day expected.
Haze and patchy smoke from the wildfires over Nova Scotia will
be around but is expected to decrease in concentration with
further dispersion as per 12Z HRRR near surface smoke forecast.
Winds are pretty light but increase in the afternoon with sea breeze
development.
Used a combination of NBM and MAV/MET MOS for highs today. Expect
temperatures to range from the lower 70s across SE CT and Eastern LI
to middle and possibly upper 80s across parts of NE NJ and Lower
Hudson Valley.
There will be another chance for fog and stratus develop, with best
chances across Long Island and eastern coastal CT for tonight.
Otherwise, mostly clear skies can be expected. Lows forecast
from lower 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday, ridging aloft from the west begins to breakdown as a trough
drops south from Canada to New England. Forecast guidance still in
decent agreement that 850 mb temperatures warm into the 16-18C
range. This should allow surface temps to climb into the upper-80s
to lower-90s inland with mid/low-80s for coastal areas. This will
result in Friday being the warmest day of the week.
A pre-frontal trough will also set up of the back door cold front
Friday afternoon. This will bring some instability to the area,
leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms. SBCAPE values are
1000-1500 J/kg from the GFS, but higher on the NAM at 2000-2400
J/kg. Right now it looks like the stronger instability occurs
inland. Can not rule out any small hail with any thunderstorms that
occur.
The backdoor cold front pushes across the region Friday night,
resulting in a period of northeast flow through at least Saturday
night. NE Winds will gradually increase on the day Saturday with
gusts reaching 20-30mph (highest gusts further east). The northeast
flow will also usher in a much cooler airmass with temperatures on
Saturday in the 60s. Used a blend of NBM/CONSALL for this period.
The cyclonic flow will result in showers across the area on
Saturday and Saturday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Closed 500mb low meanders near the Northeast coast Sunday and
Monday, and may begin to shift north Tuesday into Wednesday.
Attendant surface low pressure will linger around as well. This will
bring a prolonged period of shower chances each day. Followed
closely to NBM PoPs, capping them at chance, but there are some
indications that rain chances could be lower than the current
forecast, particularly Monday through Wednesday. With the cold pool
aloft coupled with progged warmer lower levels for Tuesday and
Wednesday, greater instability with steeper lapse rates could
promote some thunder both afternoons. High temperatures below normal
for Sunday and Monday, then warming closer to normal for Tuesday and
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains in control into Friday. A backdoor cold
front approaches during the afternoon.
VFR. There is a chance of MVFR to IFR stratus late tonight at
KJFK, and more likely IFR at KISP and KGON, and with increased
confidence included a TEMPO for IFR ceilings.
Generally a light southerly flow has developed at the terminals,
except for NE winds at KLGA that are expected to become SE to S
late in the afternoon, with timing uncertain. Winds become light
and variable this evening and overnight. Winds then become
southerly Friday morning, with timing uncertain as light and
variable winds may continue longer than forecast.
Smoke from Canadian wildfires could limit slant range
visibilities with smoke aloft.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
The afternoon haze potential forecast is RED...which implies
slant range visibility less than 4sm outside of cloud.
Timing of the wind shift to SE to S at KLGA uncertain.
There is a chance of MVFR to possibly IFR stratus at KJFK late
tonight into Friday morning, 05Z to 12Z, and with uncertainty
at this time will only have a TEMPO for scattered stratus.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday afternoon: Mainly VFR. A chance of
showers/thunderstorms, likely north and east, with MVFR during
the afternoon and at night.
Saturday: MVFR to IFR with showers throughout the day, ending
west at night and becoming VFR. NE winds 10-15kt with gusts
20-25kt, highest at the coastal terminals.
Sunday: Mostly VFR, a chance of MVFR with showers east of the
NYC metro terminals. N wind 15-20kt gusts 25-30kt east of the
NYC metro terminals.
Monday: VFR, a slight chance of showers.
Tuesday: VFR, a chance of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms with MVFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions are expected to remain below small craft criteria through
Friday, mostly due to a relatively weak pressure gradient over the
area waters. SCA conditions expected on all waters on Saturday
with a strong NE flow. Gusts are expected to reach 30 kt with
seas building to 6-7 ft.
SCA conditions then persist mainly on the ocean waters Sunday
through Monday with gusts of 25-30 kts, mainly during Sunday, and a
lingering swell keeping waves up to 5-6 feet in spite of a NE to N
wind flow.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate rip current risk is expected today and Friday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...BC/JM
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...