000
FXUS61 KOKX 021143
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
743 AM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will start to approach from the north this afternoon
and evening, and then move through from the northeast late
tonight into Saturday morning. A high pressure ridge will then
develop along the coast Saturday into Saturday night and linger
into Monday. A cold front passes through Monday night. Low
pressure then lingers in the area Tuesday through Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast is mainly on track. Only minor adjustments made to
some of the hourly forecast elements to reflect the latest
trends.
Mostly sunny skies this morning. Temps rising into the 80s away
from most south facing shorelines, perhaps getting close to 90
in spots NW of NYC this afternoon.
For this afternoon through Sat AM leaning toward idea shown in
CAM`s of tstms developing in the higher elevations mainly N of
the CWA and also in parts of Orange County early this afternoon,
with activity isolated at first, then increasing somewhat in
coverage during mid to late afternoon as storms move S into
inland sections of the CWA. Development along the sea breeze
front also possible in NE NJ. Wind fields are weak so do not
expect much organization to the convection this afternoon,
mainly pulse tstms. Stronger cells are capable of producing
small hail given sufficient -10C to -30C CAPE as shown on NAM
fcst soundings, also gusty winds via steep low level lapse rates
and relatively dry mid level/sub-cloud air. Cannot entirely
rule out an isold damaging wind gust with the above parameters
leading to DCAPE over 1000 J/kg and WINDEX parameter over 50 kt
in spots NW of NYC.
Main push of numerous showers and a few tstms should come from
late evening into the first half of the overnight as the back
door cold front moves into the area from the NE. The front
should be through most of if not all the CWA by daybreak Sat.
Additional showers are also possible late tonight into Sat AM
via lift from a mid level vort max at the trailing base of a
digging Canadian Maritimes upper trough. Low temps tonight will
range from the lower 50s across far ern CT, to the lower 60s in
NYC.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Showers should come to an end Sat AM, with a high pressure ridge
developing along the coast and a gusty NE flow in place for the
daytime hrs. Temps Sat into Sat night will be below normal,
with highs only in the 60s, then falling to the lower 50s in NYC
and into the 40s elsewhere.
Offshore low pressure developing E of New England may throw some
clouds and a few showers back into the area Sunday into Sunday
night, mainly across SE CT and ern Long Island. Highs on Sunday
should reach the lower 70s from NYC north/west, with 60s to the
east. Low Sunday night should range from the mid 50s in NYC, to
the lower 50s in the rest of the metro area and along most of
the coast, to the 40s inland.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak high pressure will be over the area for Monday as we`ll be
between an area of low pressure offshore and another low
pressure center shifting SE from southern Quebec. Showers
possible, but low chances overall. A somewhat better chance of
showers for Monday night with the passage of a cold front.
Relatively weak surface low pressure with maybe a couple of
surface troughs then can be expected Tuesday through Thursday
as a longwave trough/closed 500mb low lingers across the
Northeast. A chance of showers through the entire period. With
the cold pool aloft and sufficient CAPE, instability and lapse
rates could promote some thunder each afternoon. Most the period
will be dry though - just a threat of a shower at any given
time.
High temperatures mostly in the lower and middle 70s for Tuesday
and Thursday. Wednesday will probably be a little cooler with
more in the way of clouds and a cooler boundary layer.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains in control during the morning. A backdoor
cold front approaches this afternoon and passes through
overnight.
VFR through this afternoon. Chances of showers/thunderstorms
begin mid-afternoon and continue into the late night hours.
Brief MVFR in heavier downpours possible, otherwise MVFR/IFR
probably doesn`t prevail until after midnight tonight as cigs
lower.
Light SW to variable winds become more of a southerly flow at
10 kt later this morning. Winds then back more toward SE early
this evening, then more E or variable in direction after
sunset. Timing on these wind shifts tonight is low confidence as
outflow may affect winds and models are in disagreement with
timing.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of potential thunderstorms may be off by a few hours.
Wind direction and speeds are low confidence from late
afternoon until shortly after midnight, however they probably at
least prevail at 10 kt or less during this period.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday: MVFR to IFR with a chance of showers in the morning.
Becoming VFR in the afternoon. NE winds around 15kt with gusts
around 25kt, highest at the coastal terminals.
Sunday: Mostly VFR, a chance of MVFR with showers east of the
NYC metro terminals.
Monday: VFR, a slight chance of showers.
Tuesday: VFR, a chance of mainly afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms with MVFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
After a back door cold frontal passage late tonight, SCA conds
should develop from W to E late tonight into early Sat morning,
and persist into Sat night, with NE winds gusting to 30 if not
occasionally 35 kt on the ocean, and ocean seas building to 5-8
ft. Did not yet raise SCA for the wrn Sound and NY Harbor as
any gusts to 25 kt there could be more sporadic.
Ocean seas as high as 5 ft may linger on the outer ocean waters
from Sunday into at least Monday morning. Sub-SCA conditions are
otherwise expected for the remainder of the period.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides will be running relatively high this weekend as a
full moon occurs Saturday night. Combined with a moderate NE-ENE
wind flow, tidal piling with the help of Ekman transport will bring
a decent chance of widespread minor coastal flooding Saturday and
Sunday evenings across some of the area. Best chances appear to be
from the Nassau County south shore back bays westward into Southern
Queens/Brooklyn, most of NY Harbor, as well as Southern Fairfield
and Southern Westchester Counties. Minor flooding could be possible
across the back bays of southern Suffolk County as well as along
Peconic and Gardiners bays. Localized moderate flooding may occur
both nights in southern Nassau County. In most cases, only a half
foot to 1.5 feet of tidal departure will be needed to reach minor
flooding.
A moderate rip current risk is expected today and Saturday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 11 PM EDT Saturday for
ANZ331-340.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 11 PM EDT Saturday for
ANZ332.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for
ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for
ANZ353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...