000
FXUS61 KOKX 021440
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1040 AM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will start to approach from the north this
afternoon and evening, and then move through from the northeast
late tonight into Saturday morning. A high pressure ridge will
then develop along the coast Saturday into Saturday night and
linger into Monday. A cold front passes through Monday night.
Low pressure then lingers in the area Tuesday through Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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With clear to nearly clear sky across the region temperatures
early this morning rose more quickly than forecast. Updated for
current conditions and trends, with temperatures across portions
of northeastern New Jersey reaching 90 degrees.

Otherwise, updated the weather and probabilities, still leaning
toward the CAM`s, however, adjusting timing and areal coverage.
Thunderstorms developing across the higher elevations mainly N
of the CWA and also in parts of Orange County early this
afternoon, with activity isolated at first, then increasing
somewhat in coverage during mid to late afternoon as storms move
S into inland sections of the CWA. Development along the sea
breeze front also possible in NE NJ. Wind fields are weak so do
not expect much organization to the convection this afternoon,
mainly pulse tstms. Stronger cells are capable of producing
small hail given sufficient -10C to -30C CAPE as shown on NAM
fcst soundings, also gusty winds via steep low level lapse rates
and relatively dry mid level/sub-cloud air. Cannot entirely
rule out an isold damaging wind gust with the above parameters
leading to DCAPE over 1000 J/kg and WINDEX parameter over 50 kt
in spots NW of NYC.

Main push of numerous showers and a few tstms should come from
late evening into the first half of the overnight as the back
door cold front moves into the area from the NE. The front
should be through most of if not all the CWA by daybreak Sat.

Additional showers are also possible late tonight into Sat AM
via lift from a mid level vort max at the trailing base of a
digging Canadian Maritimes upper trough. Low temps tonight will
range from the lower 50s across far ern CT, to the lower 60s in
NYC.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Showers should come to an end Sat AM, with a high pressure ridge
developing along the coast and a gusty NE flow in place for the
daytime hrs. Temps Sat into Sat night will be below normal,
with highs only in the 60s, then falling to the lower 50s in NYC
and into the 40s elsewhere.

Offshore low pressure developing E of New England may throw some
clouds and a few showers back into the area Sunday into Sunday
night, mainly across SE CT and ern Long Island. Highs on Sunday
should reach the lower 70s from NYC north/west, with 60s to the
east. Low Sunday night should range from the mid 50s in NYC, to
the lower 50s in the rest of the metro area and along most of
the coast, to the 40s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak high pressure will be over the area for Monday as we`ll be
between an area of low pressure offshore and another low
pressure center shifting SE from southern Quebec. Showers
possible, but low chances overall. A somewhat better chance of
showers for Monday night with the passage of a cold front.

Relatively weak surface low pressure with maybe a couple of
surface troughs then can be expected Tuesday through Thursday
as a longwave trough/closed 500mb low lingers across the
Northeast. A chance of showers through the entire period. With
the cold pool aloft and sufficient CAPE, instability and lapse
rates could promote some thunder each afternoon. Most the period
will be dry though - just a threat of a shower at any given
time.

High temperatures mostly in the lower and middle 70s for Tuesday
and Thursday. Wednesday will probably be a little cooler with
more in the way of clouds and a cooler boundary layer.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A backdoor cold front approaches this afternoon and passes
through overnight.

VFR through this afternoon. There is a chance for showers and
thunderstorms, mainly late afternoon and early evening across
Connecticut and the Lower Hudson Valley. The probability of
thunderstorms increases towards 00z and continues into the
first half of the night. The chance for thunder diminishes
after 03/04z, but showers remain likely into the early morning
hours. Brief MVFR is possible in heavier downpours, then MVFR
ceilings should become widespread from north to south after 06z.
IFR becomes likely early Saturday morning.

Winds become more of a southerly flow around 10 kt late morning
into the afternoon. Winds then back more toward SE early this
evening, then more E or variable in direction after sunset.
Winds should then become NE and become gusty early Saturday
morning once the backdoor front shifts south. Timing on these
wind shifts tonight is low confidence.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Isolated showers possible this afternoon.

Timing of thunderstorms may need to be delayed a few more
hours this evening.

Winds at KLGA, KEWR, and KTEB may stay NE a few hours longer
this afternoon before shifting to the SE.

Lower confidence in wind direction this evening, but becomes
higher late tonight into early Saturday with winds become NE.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: MVFR to IFR with a chance of showers in the morning.
Becoming VFR in the afternoon. NE winds around 15kt with gusts
around 25kt, highest at the coastal terminals.

Sunday: Mostly VFR, a chance of MVFR with showers east of the
NYC metro terminals.

Monday: VFR, a slight chance of showers.

Tuesday: VFR, a chance of mainly afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms with MVFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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No changes to winds and seas, or hazards, at this time.

After a back door cold frontal passage late tonight, SCA conds
should develop from W to E late tonight into early Sat morning,
and persist into Sat night, with NE winds gusting to 30 if not
occasionally 35 kt on the ocean, and ocean seas building to 5-8
ft. Did not yet raise SCA for the wrn Sound and NY Harbor as any
gusts to 25 kt there could be more sporadic.

Ocean seas as high as 5 ft may linger on the outer ocean waters
from Sunday into at least Monday morning. Sub-SCA conditions are
otherwise expected for the remainder of the period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides will be running relatively high this weekend as a
full moon occurs Saturday night. Combined with a moderate NE-ENE
wind flow, tidal piling with the help of Ekman transport will bring
a decent chance of widespread minor coastal flooding Saturday and
Sunday evenings across some of the area. Best chances appear to be
from the Nassau County south shore back bays westward into Southern
Queens/Brooklyn, most of NY Harbor, as well as Southern Fairfield
and Southern Westchester Counties. Minor flooding could be possible
across the back bays of southern Suffolk County as well as along
Peconic and Gardiners bays. Localized moderate flooding may occur
both nights in southern Nassau County. In most cases, only a half
foot to 1.5 feet of tidal departure will be needed to reach minor
flooding.

A moderate rip current risk is expected today and Saturday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 11 PM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ331-340.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 11 PM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ332.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for
     ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for
     ANZ353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BG
NEAR TERM...BG/MET
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC/DS
MARINE...JC/BG/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...