000
FXUS61 KOKX 031147
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
747 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A back door cold front will pass through early this morning,
followed by high pressure building from the northeast into
Saturday night. Weak low pressure developing just east of New
England Sunday into Monday will remain nearly stationary through
the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Radar shows shower activity has waned. Cant rule out a stray
shower across the forks of Long Island and SE CT early this AM
as a vort max pivots around the SW flank of the developing
closed low over New England, otherwise today should remain
mostly cloudy and dry behind the back door front as high
pressure builds down the coast from the NE on a gusty E wind,
strongest along the coast and in the metro area. Combo of GFS
LAMP and HRRR guidance suggests high temps only near 70 in NE
NJ, in the 60s most elsewhere, and only in the upper 50s
across the forks of Long Island, a good 25-30 deg cooler than
yesterday inland, and 20-25 deg cooler along the coast and in
the NYC metro area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As low pressure starts to develop E of New England, sfc high
pressure will be shunted to the west and winds should turn more
northerly. Areas from NYC metro west should see at least partial
clearing, while most of Long Island and S CT remain mostly
cloudy due to proximity of the low.
Low temps tonight should be in the lower 50s in/around NYC, with
40s elsewhere.
The low should throw clouds and light precip back into the area
Sunday into Sunday night, with the entire CWA becoming mostly
cloudy for a time late day Sunday or Sunday night. Sct showers
confined mostly to the forks of Long Island and SE CT Sunday
afternoon should increase in coverage into most of the rest of
Long Island and CT Sunday night.
High temps on Sunday should be similar to those of today. Only
slight moderation in temps expected for Sunday night, with
lows 50-55 invof NYC and 45-50 elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The period will be characterized by an omega block, with stacked
low pressure E of New England, an upper level low over S
California, and a high amplitude ridge over the center of
the country.
With the stacked low near New England, troughs will rotate
around the low, one of which will bring a cold frontal passage
late Monday night into Tuesday morning. This will mean
precipitation chances throughout the long term, with the highest
chances occurring during the day during peak heating of the
afternoon into the early evening hours, as surface heating
increases instability and the cold pool aloft increases the
lower to mid level lapse rates. The increased stability will
also mean a slight chance for thunderstorms. Generally, the best
locations for precipitation will be for northern and eastern
sections of the forecast area, as these areas will be closer to
the low.
Forecast uncertainty increases towards the end of the forecast
period with divergence in model solutions with the upper and lower
level lows. The GFS kicked the low out of New England by mid
week (though another upper low rotates around it and moves
over the area), while the ECMWF kept the low over New England
through the end of the week, with the low weakening towards
the second half of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Following a cold frontal passage this morning, high building
south across New England will nose into the area today.
MVFR ceilings this morning will gradually lift, becoming VFR
for most terminals by 18Z. The eastern terminals look to be
slower to improve and KGON is likely to stay MVFR through
tonight. MVFR conditions could return to KISP and KBDR late
tonight.
NE winds ramp up this morning increasing to around 15 kt with
gusts 20-25 kt. Strongest winds look to be at the terminals east
of NYC. These winds will persist into the first half of tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments are likely for changing of ceiling categories and for
the timing of wind gusts today.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: Mostly VFR, a chance of MVFR with showers east of the NYC
metro terminals. N wind gusts 15-20 kt possible.
Monday: VFR, a slight chance of showers.
Tuesday-Wednesday: Mainly VFR, a chance of mainly afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms with MVFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA cond should develop on all waters today from west to east
as NE winds gust to 25-30 kt after a back door cold frontal
passage and ocean seas build to 5-8 ft. Highest winds and seas
will be on the ern ocean waters.
Winds and seas subside beginning this evening, with SCA cond
confined to the ocean and far ern Sound after midnight (gusts
up to 25 kt and seas as high as 4-7 ft). These conditions should
last into Sunday night especially out east as developing low
pressure E of New England maintains the pressure gradient over
the local waters. These conds should relax daytime Mon, with
lingering 5-ft ocean seas possible out east in the morning.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for Lower NY Harbor, the
south shore back bays of western LI, and portions adjacent to
western LI Sound for the high tide cycle tonight.
Astronomical tides will be running relatively high this weekend as a
full moon occurs tonight. Combined with a moderate NE wind,
tidal piling with the help of Ekman transport will bring a good
chance of widespread minor coastal flooding this evening and
possibly again Sunday evening. Best chances appear to be from
the Nassau County south shore back bays westward into Southern
Queens/Brooklyn, most of NY Harbor, as well as Southern
Fairfield and Southern Westchester Counties. Minor flooding
could be possible across the back bays of southern Suffolk
County as well as along Peconic and Gardiners bays. Localized
moderate flooding may occur both nights in southern Nassau
County. In most cases, only a half foot to 1.5 feet of tidal
departure will be needed to reach minor flooding.
A moderate rip current risk is forecast for today. More of a
longshore current expected as winds will be out of the NE while
ocean seas build to 5-8 ft. The moderate risk should last into
Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
Sunday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
Sunday for NYZ071.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
NYZ074-075-178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ331-340.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ332.
Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight EDT tonight
for ANZ335-338-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JP
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JP
HYDROLOGY...BG/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...