000
FXUS61 KOKX 031422
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1022 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A back door cold front moved across the region this morning. It
will be followed by high pressure building from the northeast
into tonight. Weak low pressure developing just east of New
England Sunday into Monday will remain nearly stationary through
the end of the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast on track this morning. Today will remain mostly cloudy
and mostly dry behind the back door front as high pressure
builds down the coast from the NE. Can not rule out a brief
isolated shower. Expect a gusty E wind, strongest along the
coast and in the metro area. Combo of GFS LAMP and HRRR guidance
suggests high temps only near 70 in NE NJ, in the 60s most
elsewhere, and only in the upper 50s across the forks of Long
Island, a good 25-30 deg cooler than yesterday inland, and 20-25
deg cooler along the coast and in the NYC metro area.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As low pressure starts to develop E of New England, sfc high
pressure will be shunted to the west and winds should turn more
northerly. Areas from NYC metro west should see at least partial
clearing, while most of Long Island and S CT remain mostly
cloudy due to proximity of the low.
Low temps tonight should be in the lower 50s in/around NYC, with
40s elsewhere.
The low should throw clouds and light precip back into the area
Sunday into Sunday night, with the entire CWA becoming mostly
cloudy for a time late day Sunday or Sunday night. Sct showers
confined mostly to the forks of Long Island and SE CT Sunday
afternoon should increase in coverage into most of the rest of
Long Island and CT Sunday night.
High temps on Sunday should be similar to those of today. Only
slight moderation in temps expected for Sunday night, with
lows 50-55 invof NYC and 45-50 elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The period will be characterized by an omega block, with stacked
low pressure E of New England, an upper level low over S
California, and a high amplitude ridge over the center of
the country.
With the stacked low near New England, troughs will rotate
around the low, one of which will bring a cold frontal passage
late Monday night into Tuesday morning. This will mean
precipitation chances throughout the long term, with the highest
chances occurring during the day during peak heating of the
afternoon into the early evening hours, as surface heating
increases instability and the cold pool aloft increases the
lower to mid level lapse rates. The increased stability will
also mean a slight chance for thunderstorms. Generally, the best
locations for precipitation will be for northern and eastern
sections of the forecast area, as these areas will be closer to
the low.
Forecast uncertainty increases towards the end of the forecast
period with divergence in model solutions with the upper and lower
level lows. The GFS kicked the low out of New England by mid
week (though another upper low rotates around it and moves
over the area), while the ECMWF kept the low over New England
through the end of the week, with the low weakening towards
the second half of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Following a cold frontal passage this morning, high building
south across New England will nose into the area today.
MVFR ceilings this morning will gradually lift, becoming VFR
for most terminals by 18Z. The eastern terminals look to be
slower to improve and KGON is likely to stay MVFR through
tonight. MVFR conditions could return to KISP and KBDR late
tonight.
Generally NE winds gradually increase late this morning and
into the early afternoon to around 15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt.
Winds may become more E into early this afternoon. Strongest
winds look to be at the terminals east of NYC. These winds will
persist into the first half of tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments are likely for changing of ceiling categories and for
the timing of wind gusts today.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: Mostly VFR, a chance of MVFR with showers east of the NYC
metro terminals. N wind gusts 15-20 kt possible.
Monday: VFR, a slight chance of showers.
Tuesday-Wednesday: Mainly VFR, a chance of mainly afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms with MVFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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SCA conditions on all waters today as NE winds gust to 25-30 kt
after a back door cold frontal passage and ocean seas build to
5-8 ft. Highest winds and seas will be on the ern ocean waters.
Winds and seas subside beginning this evening, with SCA cond
confined to the ocean and far ern Sound after midnight (gusts
up to 25 kt and seas as high as 4-7 ft). These conditions should
last into Sunday night especially out east as developing low
pressure E of New England maintains the pressure gradient over
the local waters. These conds should relax daytime Mon, with
lingering 5-ft ocean seas possible out east in the morning.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for Lower NY Harbor, the
south shore back bays of western LI, and portions adjacent to
western LI Sound for the high tide cycle tonight.
Astronomical tides will be running relatively high this weekend as a
full moon occurs tonight. Combined with a moderate NE wind,
tidal piling with the help of Ekman transport will bring a good
chance of widespread minor coastal flooding this evening and
possibly again Sunday evening. Best chances appear to be from
the Nassau County south shore back bays westward into Southern
Queens/Brooklyn, most of NY Harbor, as well as Southern
Fairfield and Southern Westchester Counties. Minor flooding
could be possible across the back bays of southern Suffolk
County as well as along Peconic and Gardiners bays. Localized
moderate flooding may occur both nights in southern Nassau
County. In most cases, only a half foot to 1.5 feet of tidal
departure will be needed to reach minor flooding.
A moderate rip current risk is forecast for today. More of a
longshore current expected as winds will be out of the NE while
ocean seas build to 5-8 ft. The moderate risk should last into
Sunday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
Sunday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
Sunday for NYZ071.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
NYZ074-075-178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ331-340.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ332.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ335-338-
345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JP
NEAR TERM...BC/BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DW/MW
MARINE...JP
HYDROLOGY...BG/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...