000
FXUS61 KOKX 042332
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
732 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure weakens and drifts to the west tonight as weak
low pressure develops east of New England. Weak low pressure
will remain nearly stationary over northern New England and the
Canadian Maritimes through the end of next week. Weak high
pressure builds in for Saturday. A cold front approaches late
Saturday into Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast is generally on track. Extended slight chance for
showers farther west, mainly including all of southern
Connecticut and much of Long Island as a shower developed over
northern Fairfield at around 7 pm. However, do expect coverage
to decrease for western portions at or just after sunset, while
eastern areas will continue to see a slight chance to chance of
showers with low pressure off the New England coast bringing in
showers to these locations.
Weak high pressure continues to drift westward into tonight as a
weak low pressure system develops off the New England coast,
courtesy of an upper level trough that remains spinning over the
area. This developing surface low will result in mostly cloudy to
overcast conditions for much of the eastern portions of the area
tonight, with more broken and scattered cloud cover for areas
further west. Some low level moisture may result in a few light
showers or sprinkles through the evening and into the overnight,
mainly for SE CT and Eastern Long Island. Lows tonight will be in
the upper 40s to low 50s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A persistent pattern remains in place as the trough continues
spinning overhead and a surface low spins to our east. A northerly
flow will gradually shift more to the northwest by mid morning,
brining in some drier mid-level air that will allow for much of the
cloud cover to break up during much of the day on Monday, mainly for
western areas. This will allow for temperatures to rise back up to
average values, mainly in the middle to upper 70s for the western
CWA. Eastern portions will remain under fair to mostly cloudy skies
with temperature remaining in the upper 60s to near 70, though
conditions look to remain dry during the day.
Monday night, another piece of energy approaches the area from the
northwest as it makes it`s way into the western periphery of the
trough spinning overhead. This will result in increased cloud cover
as well as a chance of a light shower, mainly after midnight, Monday
night and into Tuesday morning. Otherwise, a mostly dry night is
expected with lows in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A well established omega block begins the long term period, with a
stacked low pressure over New England and the Canadian Maritimes and
an upper level low over southern California, and high amplitude
ridge over the center of the country.
With the stacked low over New England, troughs will rotate around
the low, one of which will be a cold front on Tuesday. This will
mean precipitation chances throughout the long term, with the
highest chances occurring during the day during peak heating of the
afternoon into the early evening hours, as surface heating coupled
with the cold pool aloft increases the lower to mid level lapse
rates. There is a few hundred J/kg of surface instability noted in
the models, mainly Tuesday, Thursday, and Wednesday. Along with
some elevated instability and inverted V forecast soundings,
convection is possible during this period, mainly north and west of
New York City. However, the best locations for general
precipitation will be for northern and eastern sections of the
forecast area, as these areas will be closer to the low.
The upper low remains over northern New England and the Canadian
Maritimes through the end of next week, then finally weakens into a
high amplitude trough over the eastern U.S. late Friday which
continues to slowly weaken into next weekend as the upper level
pattern breaks down with the approach of a cold front over south
central Canada. However this front should remain well to the
north and west even into Saturday and may begin to move through
the forecast area late Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure develops off the New England coast tonight with high
pressure remaining to the west through Monday Night.
Mainly VFR through the TAF period, The only exception is at KGON
where MVFR ceilings are likely to return tonight into early Monday
morning.
NE winds 10-15 kt this evening will gradually settle around 10 kt
and back to the N and NNW overnight. Light/variable flow is possible
at outlying terminals early Monday morning. Wind speeds increase
after day break, becoming 10-13 kt with some gusts 16-20 kt late
morning into the afternoon. The NNW flow should prevent any
afternoon and early evening seabreezes from developing. Wind speeds
begin to diminish towards sunset.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Wind direction could stay NE a few hours longer than forecast this
evening.
The modest NNW flow on Monday should prevent any sea breeze
development at KJFK in the afternoon and early evening.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday Night: Mainly VFR.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and early evening showers
and isolated thunderstorms with MVFR. NW wind gusts 20 kt possible
in the afternoon.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and early evening showers.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, a chance of afternoon and early evening
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance of showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions remain for the easternmost ocean zone with wave
heights near 5 feet and gusts up to 25 kt through much of tonight
with a developing weak low pressure system well to the east.
Elsewhere, sub-SCA conditions are expected. Winds and waves look to
drop below SCA thresholds for the eastern ocean by 12Z Monday. Winds
and waves will then remain below SCA levels through Friday as
the pressure gradient remains relatively weak.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A coastal flood statement is in effect for tonight`s high cycle for
Lower NY Harbor, south shore back bays of Queens and Nassau,
southern Westchester, and southern Fairfield.
The coastal flooding does not look to be as widespread for tonight`s
high tide cycle. A more northerly flow today should result in water
levels coming down with tidal departures closer to 1/2 to 1 ft above
normal and about 1 1/2 ft at Freeport. This will keep waters
levels right around minor coastal flood benchmarks at the time
of high tide tonight. Any flooding at this time looks to be
brief and minor.
A deepening offshore low east of New England tonight into Monday
will produce an easterly swell in addition to Ekman transport with a
prolonged northerly flow offshore. Guidance is suggesting waters
levels could be a bit higher for Monday night.
There is a moderate risk of rip currents today and Monday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/MW
NEAR TERM...JP/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JP/MW
HYDROLOGY...JP/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...